Well yes but it's the vote til you boak comment I am replying to not the just enough one! Most other voters did in fact boak before they got to preferencing the top two.

Well, not really, as I point out in the QT: this is easily the highest rate of non-transfers from the available pool of any recent by-election! More than two-thirds of voters didn't preference either of the top two.

Transfer rounds - a somewhat infrequent by-election occurrence where these really, really mattered!

bsky.app/profile/ball...

Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) by-election transfers, votes at final stage:

Conservative: 1565 (39.7%)
Reform UK: 1523 (38.7%)
Didn't Transfer: 851 (21.6%)

No detailed data to follow as this was a hand count.

If you value my work and appreciate the fact that I put basic human decency and respect for human rights over my potential income, I'd really appreciate if you chipped into said crowdfunder here: gofund.me/55e3a6cf4

How many older journalists and papers look back at their role whipping up hatred against gay people like me in the 80's and 90's with pride and a sense they did right? Very few. So what do *you*, today's journos and papers, think your prospects are after re-running same campaign against trans folk?

If you value my work and appreciate the fact that I put basic human decency and respect for human rights over my potential income, I'd really appreciate if you chipped into said crowdfunder here: gofund.me/55e3a6cf4

You can do on same day (there was one in Stirling in 2021) for just a by-election but as the next full Locals are in 2027 this falls under the normal within 3 months rule and thus will have to be by this point in February!

No, it'll be Lib Dem.

I would just keep holding the whole thing up then rather than drive everyone up the wall, grumble

Hi! Did you consider, at the same time, asking what their actual voting intention is? I ask because you do appear to recognise it's now less than 6 months until the election, and for the UK Parliament you have a weekly time series, so, surely, you might think some actual VI was useful? Right?

Exit Polls are really, really complex, far beyond a normal poll, so short answer is no! It'd be good if the national broadcaster considered devolved elections worth the bother, but well beyond my capacity.