Andrew Sentance
@asentance.bsky.social
Independent Business Economist. Columnist for The Times and church musician. Former roles include: Bank of England MPC member; CBI Director of Economic Affairs; BA Chief Economist; and PwC Senior Economic Adviser.
Agreed, Tony. Why should Powell give Trump what he wants by resigning? He should stick to his guns and operate independently according to the traditions of the US constitution.
El Erian's comment is absolutely bonkers. The point of legislation giving the Fed independence is to allow it to do the job legislators set for it and not what the President wants to do on a day to day basis to ease his political difficulties.
This is deeply unpleasant and wrong on its face. Deference to the executive branch still compromises independence.
April 18, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Agreed, Tony. Why should Powell give Trump what he wants by resigning? He should stick to his guns and operate independently according to the traditions of the US constitution.
My latest column in #MailonSunday today. UK inflation is heading above 5 percent this autumn and Trump tariffs could make things worse. Bank of England should hold off from further interest rate cuts until the tariff & inflation situation is clearer. www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/market...
ANDREW SENTANCE: Trump's tariffs whipping up an inflation storm
A perfect storm is brewing, which could push UK inflation above 5 per cent by the autumn.
www.thisismoney.co.uk
April 13, 2025 at 6:35 AM
My latest column in #MailonSunday today. UK inflation is heading above 5 percent this autumn and Trump tariffs could make things worse. Bank of England should hold off from further interest rate cuts until the tariff & inflation situation is clearer. www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/market...
Price hikes this month from a variety of sources - energy/water bills, broadband, TV & phone charges, pay increases and additional employer NICs, council tax, etc. CPI inflation to exceed 5pc later this year and no scope to cut interest rates.
April 1, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Price hikes this month from a variety of sources - energy/water bills, broadband, TV & phone charges, pay increases and additional employer NICs, council tax, etc. CPI inflation to exceed 5pc later this year and no scope to cut interest rates.
Inflation alert: Pay rising at 6pc in U.K. - totally incompatible with 2pc inflation. Expected big cuts in interest rates now look unlikely as Bank of England battles with another surge in inflation, which will get added momentum from NI & minimum wage increases in April.
February 18, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Inflation alert: Pay rising at 6pc in U.K. - totally incompatible with 2pc inflation. Expected big cuts in interest rates now look unlikely as Bank of England battles with another surge in inflation, which will get added momentum from NI & minimum wage increases in April.
@marklewisohn.bsky.social Just finished listening to the excellent audio book of “Tune In” - a brilliant + highly detailed account of the early Beatles years. Would highly recommend it. Also have the signed hardback book from when I met Mark in 2010s. Roll on the 2nd & 3rd volumes of the trilogy!
February 17, 2025 at 7:22 AM
@marklewisohn.bsky.social Just finished listening to the excellent audio book of “Tune In” - a brilliant + highly detailed account of the early Beatles years. Would highly recommend it. Also have the signed hardback book from when I met Mark in 2010s. Roll on the 2nd & 3rd volumes of the trilogy!
My latest blog, posted on the NIESR website. A sceptical look at the UK government’s growth agenda, which faces a number of headwinds, including the impact of Budget measures.
💥 NEW BLOG 💥
In her recent speech, the #Chancellor outlined some measures that are envisioned to boost UK #EconomicGrowth 📈 But how effective will the proposed policies be in turning the tide? 💭
NIESR Visitor @asentance.bsky.social unpacks the answers ✍⬇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/in-sear...
In her recent speech, the #Chancellor outlined some measures that are envisioned to boost UK #EconomicGrowth 📈 But how effective will the proposed policies be in turning the tide? 💭
NIESR Visitor @asentance.bsky.social unpacks the answers ✍⬇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/in-sear...
In Search of Economic Growth - NIESR
The Labour Government was elected on a promise of economic growth. Recent announcements have provided some detail, but how effective will they be?
niesr.ac.uk
February 12, 2025 at 4:56 PM
My latest blog, posted on the NIESR website. A sceptical look at the UK government’s growth agenda, which faces a number of headwinds, including the impact of Budget measures.
Rachel Reeves’s growth speech today was a damp squib. Promises to expand Heathrow are meaningless when gov’ts since 2003 have said the same. Other promises - to reform planning & benefits - have been made many times before. Nothing in the speech can offset the Budget tax rises hitting business.
January 29, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Rachel Reeves’s growth speech today was a damp squib. Promises to expand Heathrow are meaningless when gov’ts since 2003 have said the same. Other promises - to reform planning & benefits - have been made many times before. Nothing in the speech can offset the Budget tax rises hitting business.
Rachel Reeves wants us to talk up the UK economy but hard to do that when she has spent the past 6 months exaggerating UK’s economic problems so she can blame the Tories. Talk is not enough. Action is needed. Tim to ease the damaging impact of Budget tax rises.
January 25, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Rachel Reeves wants us to talk up the UK economy but hard to do that when she has spent the past 6 months exaggerating UK’s economic problems so she can blame the Tories. Talk is not enough. Action is needed. Tim to ease the damaging impact of Budget tax rises.
@ukjeremyclarke.bsky.social Welcome to BlueSky, Jeremy. The thinking person’s social media network!
January 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM
@ukjeremyclarke.bsky.social Welcome to BlueSky, Jeremy. The thinking person’s social media network!
Very good comment from Rob on how air fares distorted the December inflation figures.
Ignore downside UK inflation surprise; it's a temporary reprieve. Inflation fell because of an early ONS price collection date—Dec. 10. ONS measured airfares left well before school holidays, returning on Christmas and New Year's Eve. That cut 14bp from headline inflation and will rebound.
January 16, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Very good comment from Rob on how air fares distorted the December inflation figures.
UK inflation slightly better than expected todaay. Headline CPI inflation at 2.5pc (from 2.6pc). Core inflation still over 3pc at 3.2pc. Services inflation still high - 4.4pc. When minimum wage rises and higher employer NI kick in from April, CPI inflation will be up again, rising above 3pc.
January 15, 2025 at 7:20 AM
UK inflation slightly better than expected todaay. Headline CPI inflation at 2.5pc (from 2.6pc). Core inflation still over 3pc at 3.2pc. Services inflation still high - 4.4pc. When minimum wage rises and higher employer NI kick in from April, CPI inflation will be up again, rising above 3pc.
Instead of following the example of the cautious & prudent Gordon Brown, Rachel Reeves is now pursuing same policies as Denis Healey in 1974/5 - big rises in spending, tax and borrowing. Result is likely to be the same - a major financial crisis and policy U-turn.
January 11, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Instead of following the example of the cautious & prudent Gordon Brown, Rachel Reeves is now pursuing same policies as Denis Healey in 1974/5 - big rises in spending, tax and borrowing. Result is likely to be the same - a major financial crisis and policy U-turn.
Rachel Reeves is asking fellow cabinet ministers for ideas on how to generate economic growth. She is the Chancellor with over 3,000 Treasury civil servants to help her. If she cannot come up with a decent growth plan with all those resources, it’s not clear her Cabinet colleagues will do better!
January 10, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Rachel Reeves is asking fellow cabinet ministers for ideas on how to generate economic growth. She is the Chancellor with over 3,000 Treasury civil servants to help her. If she cannot come up with a decent growth plan with all those resources, it’s not clear her Cabinet colleagues will do better!
Root of Chancellor Reeves’s problems is big rises in public spending in October Budget - leading to higher borrowing, tax & inflation. Here’s my alternative plan, published pre-Budget: using reforms and economies to gradually reduce the gov’t expenditure share of GDP to 40pc, its long-term average.
January 9, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Root of Chancellor Reeves’s problems is big rises in public spending in October Budget - leading to higher borrowing, tax & inflation. Here’s my alternative plan, published pre-Budget: using reforms and economies to gradually reduce the gov’t expenditure share of GDP to 40pc, its long-term average.
Stephen Stills, legendary guitarist, singer and songwriter, was 80 yesterday. Best known as member of Crosby, Stills & Nash and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young. Also member of Buffalo Springfield in 60s and solo artist in 70s. Happy, birthday Stephen!
January 4, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Stephen Stills, legendary guitarist, singer and songwriter, was 80 yesterday. Best known as member of Crosby, Stills & Nash and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young. Also member of Buffalo Springfield in 60s and solo artist in 70s. Happy, birthday Stephen!
Elvis Top 5 songs : Fans were asked to vote ahead of what would have been the King of Rock and Roll’s 90th birthday. But all the Top 5 are from the 60s/70s. No classic rock n’roll somgs from the 50s!
January 2, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Elvis Top 5 songs : Fans were asked to vote ahead of what would have been the King of Rock and Roll’s 90th birthday. But all the Top 5 are from the 60s/70s. No classic rock n’roll somgs from the 50s!
Bank ‘to cut interest rates at least four times in 2025’ says the latest Times survey. I think with rising inflation, the Bank will struggle to justify this. 2-3 rate cuts more likely leaving Bank Rate at 4-4.25pc at year-end.
www.thetimes.com/article/5856...
www.thetimes.com/article/5856...
Bank ‘to cut interest rates at least four times in 2025’
Economists predict weak economic growth will force the base rate down to 3.75 per cent
www.thetimes.com
January 2, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Bank ‘to cut interest rates at least four times in 2025’ says the latest Times survey. I think with rising inflation, the Bank will struggle to justify this. 2-3 rate cuts more likely leaving Bank Rate at 4-4.25pc at year-end.
www.thetimes.com/article/5856...
www.thetimes.com/article/5856...
Happy New Year to all my followers. I don’t expect 2025 to be a good year for the UK economy, however, with very little growth (about 1 percent - half OBR forecast) and inflation above 3 percent for much of the year - due to persistent underlying inflation, the Budget & international uncertainties .
followers.do
January 1, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Happy New Year to all my followers. I don’t expect 2025 to be a good year for the UK economy, however, with very little growth (about 1 percent - half OBR forecast) and inflation above 3 percent for much of the year - due to persistent underlying inflation, the Budget & international uncertainties .
My latest column in The Times today argues that UK Bank Rate should stay in the 4-5 percent range next year and possibly beyond. Hoping for bigger cuts in interest rates would be unrealistic following the Budget. See links below:
www.thetimes.com/article/6451...
www.thetimes.com/article/6451...
December 23, 2024 at 12:23 PM
My latest column in The Times today argues that UK Bank Rate should stay in the 4-5 percent range next year and possibly beyond. Hoping for bigger cuts in interest rates would be unrealistic following the Budget. See links below:
www.thetimes.com/article/6451...
www.thetimes.com/article/6451...
UK inflation rate rises for second month in a row - up from 1.7pc in Sept to 2.6pc in November, nearly 1pc rise in just 2 months. UK inflation heading for over 3pc next year!
December 18, 2024 at 7:13 AM
UK inflation rate rises for second month in a row - up from 1.7pc in Sept to 2.6pc in November, nearly 1pc rise in just 2 months. UK inflation heading for over 3pc next year!
Keep interest rates unchanged, says Times shadow MPC. Latest analysis of tomorrow’s interest rate decision in today’s Times. Shadow Committee votes 8-1 to keep Bank Rate at 4.75pc and urges caution about cuts in 2025.
www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...
www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...
Keep interest rates unchanged, says Times shadow MPC
Panel votes 8-1 against any cut when the Bank of England announces its decision this week
www.thetimes.com
December 18, 2024 at 6:56 AM
Keep interest rates unchanged, says Times shadow MPC. Latest analysis of tomorrow’s interest rate decision in today’s Times. Shadow Committee votes 8-1 to keep Bank Rate at 4.75pc and urges caution about cuts in 2025.
www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...
www.thetimes.com/article/6b7c...
UK wage increases pick up again - back over 5 percent and 5.4pc in the private sector, which is the key figure for inflation prospects. Very difficult for #MPC to cut interest rates again until pay increases subside significantly.
December 17, 2024 at 7:32 AM
UK wage increases pick up again - back over 5 percent and 5.4pc in the private sector, which is the key figure for inflation prospects. Very difficult for #MPC to cut interest rates again until pay increases subside significantly.
Poor behaviour by ReformUK Party: Nigel Farage’s spokesman said he has ‘not taken part in “Behaviour Code Awareness Training” and has no intention of engaging with this woke DEI scheme’ Why not?
December 16, 2024 at 11:09 AM
Poor behaviour by ReformUK Party: Nigel Farage’s spokesman said he has ‘not taken part in “Behaviour Code Awareness Training” and has no intention of engaging with this woke DEI scheme’ Why not?
Why do many economic commentators regard the current level of UK interest rates as “high”? They’re not high relative to the decade before the Financial Crisis (4-5pc), ave inflation in past 5 years (4.5pc) or current wage increases (nearly 5pc). 4.75pc UK Bank Rate is not far from the new normal.
December 13, 2024 at 12:46 PM
Why do many economic commentators regard the current level of UK interest rates as “high”? They’re not high relative to the decade before the Financial Crisis (4-5pc), ave inflation in past 5 years (4.5pc) or current wage increases (nearly 5pc). 4.75pc UK Bank Rate is not far from the new normal.
UK GDP grew by 1.5 percent in the 10 months Oct 2023 to Aug 2024 and has since slipped back to stand 1.3pc above a year ago. Looking back further, ave UK economic growth in the past 10 years was just 1.2 percent a year. The worry is that 1.2-1.3 percent is the “new normal” for UK economic growth.
December 13, 2024 at 10:21 AM
UK GDP grew by 1.5 percent in the 10 months Oct 2023 to Aug 2024 and has since slipped back to stand 1.3pc above a year ago. Looking back further, ave UK economic growth in the past 10 years was just 1.2 percent a year. The worry is that 1.2-1.3 percent is the “new normal” for UK economic growth.