Ari Cicurel
@aricicurel.bsky.social
Associate Director of Foreign Policy, JINSA. University of Michigan and King's College London grad. Views are my own. RT/Like ≠ endorsement https://jinsa.org/person/ari-cicurel/
US and Israeli air defenses intercepted the majority of Iranian ballistic missiles during the June 13-24 war, but Iran was able to hit Israel by adapting “how, when, and what” it fired. I spoke with @wsj.com about the JINSA data featured in today's print edition.
July 16, 2025 at 9:54 PM
US and Israeli air defenses intercepted the majority of Iranian ballistic missiles during the June 13-24 war, but Iran was able to hit Israel by adapting “how, when, and what” it fired. I spoke with @wsj.com about the JINSA data featured in today's print edition.
Iranian proxies resumed attacking US troops in Iraq and Syria shortly after Israel began Operation Rising Lion. Iran wants to test Trump’s red line against attacks on US forces, deter a US strike on Fordow, and drive the US to pressure Israel against further strikes. t.co/w5NVm82e2r
June 21, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Iranian proxies resumed attacking US troops in Iraq and Syria shortly after Israel began Operation Rising Lion. Iran wants to test Trump’s red line against attacks on US forces, deter a US strike on Fordow, and drive the US to pressure Israel against further strikes. t.co/w5NVm82e2r
Iran launched 20% more ballistic missiles per wave during the early morning today than it did during the early morning yesterday. Iran launched 2 waves during the early morning hours of both days.
June 19, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Iran launched 20% more ballistic missiles per wave during the early morning today than it did during the early morning yesterday. Iran launched 2 waves during the early morning hours of both days.
During the early morning hours today, Iran launched 30 ballistic missiles, its largest single ballistic missile attack since 6/16. Iran has launched roughly 491 ballistic missiles at Israel since 6/13.
June 19, 2025 at 4:14 PM
During the early morning hours today, Iran launched 30 ballistic missiles, its largest single ballistic missile attack since 6/16. Iran has launched roughly 491 ballistic missiles at Israel since 6/13.
If Israel degrades Iran’s launch capabilities at the current rate, by June 19, Iran will have lost half of the total 360 launchers that it had before Operation Rising Lion.
June 16, 2025 at 11:51 PM
If Israel degrades Iran’s launch capabilities at the current rate, by June 19, Iran will have lost half of the total 360 launchers that it had before Operation Rising Lion.
With a trend in decreased ballistic missile launches, Iran has increased its use of drones. Iran may increasingly look to supplement its ballistic missiles with drones or cruise missiles as its capacity of missiles and launchers continues to decrease.
June 16, 2025 at 11:51 PM
With a trend in decreased ballistic missile launches, Iran has increased its use of drones. Iran may increasingly look to supplement its ballistic missiles with drones or cruise missiles as its capacity of missiles and launchers continues to decrease.
Although Iran has retaliated repeatedly against Israel, the number of ballistic missiles it has launched during each wave has decreased by at least 66 percent compared to Iran’s 2024 attacks because of Israeli strikes eliminating missile launchers and stockpile.
June 16, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Although Iran has retaliated repeatedly against Israel, the number of ballistic missiles it has launched during each wave has decreased by at least 66 percent compared to Iran’s 2024 attacks because of Israeli strikes eliminating missile launchers and stockpile.
According to JINSA estimates, Israeli strikes could eliminate 1/2 of Iran’s missile launchers, resulting in Iran’s rate of fire dropping below 20 ballistic missiles per day, as soon as 6/19. Iran’s missile stockpile could be reduced to <500 ballistic missiles as soon as 6/23.
June 16, 2025 at 11:51 PM
According to JINSA estimates, Israeli strikes could eliminate 1/2 of Iran’s missile launchers, resulting in Iran’s rate of fire dropping below 20 ballistic missiles per day, as soon as 6/19. Iran’s missile stockpile could be reduced to <500 ballistic missiles as soon as 6/23.
Iran retaliated against Israel with only 50% as many projectiles as it did in October. Iran may not have launched ballistic missiles because:
🔥Israel targeted Iranian launch capabilities,
💀Israel killed its senior leadership,
🦥Iran was not prepared, or
⏰Iran may fire later.
🔥Israel targeted Iranian launch capabilities,
💀Israel killed its senior leadership,
🦥Iran was not prepared, or
⏰Iran may fire later.
June 13, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Iran retaliated against Israel with only 50% as many projectiles as it did in October. Iran may not have launched ballistic missiles because:
🔥Israel targeted Iranian launch capabilities,
💀Israel killed its senior leadership,
🦥Iran was not prepared, or
⏰Iran may fire later.
🔥Israel targeted Iranian launch capabilities,
💀Israel killed its senior leadership,
🦥Iran was not prepared, or
⏰Iran may fire later.
The coordinated operation between the Israeli Air Force and Mossad struck over 400% more targets than during Israel's last attack against Iran in October.
June 13, 2025 at 8:10 PM
The coordinated operation between the Israeli Air Force and Mossad struck over 400% more targets than during Israel's last attack against Iran in October.
The Houthis’ ability to maintain high levels of fire during the US campaign and achieve operational successes against US ships, US aircraft, and Israel indicates it remains a potent threat—suggesting the US campaign had not significantly eroded their will & ability to fight. 7/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The Houthis’ ability to maintain high levels of fire during the US campaign and achieve operational successes against US ships, US aircraft, and Israel indicates it remains a potent threat—suggesting the US campaign had not significantly eroded their will & ability to fight. 7/10
The Trump administration launched 1,200% more strikes per day once it began targeting the Houthis compared to the period when the Biden administration conducted strikes against the group in Yemen. 6/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The Trump administration launched 1,200% more strikes per day once it began targeting the Houthis compared to the period when the Biden administration conducted strikes against the group in Yemen. 6/10
The Trump administration conducted attacks against the Houthis every day from the beginning of the campaign on March 15 until May 5, compared to the Biden administration launching operations an average of once every three days, a 66% increase in tempo. 5/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The Trump administration conducted attacks against the Houthis every day from the beginning of the campaign on March 15 until May 5, compared to the Biden administration launching operations an average of once every three days, a 66% increase in tempo. 5/10
The US launched 244 strikes against the Houthis during only the first five days of May, compared to 583 strikes throughout all of April and 300 strikes during the second half of March. 4/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The US launched 244 strikes against the Houthis during only the first five days of May, compared to 583 strikes throughout all of April and 300 strikes during the second half of March. 4/10
The US launched 1,127 strikes since 3/15 against Houthi targets in Yemen, compared to only 628 in the 14 months beforehand, a 79.5% increase. The US expanded the size of its operations during the first week of May, launching 110% more strikes per day than during April. 3/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The US launched 1,127 strikes since 3/15 against Houthi targets in Yemen, compared to only 628 in the 14 months beforehand, a 79.5% increase. The US expanded the size of its operations during the first week of May, launching 110% more strikes per day than during April. 3/10
The truce Trump announced with the Houthis will leave the terrorist threat intact, without any indication it will bring an end to Houthi strikes on Israel or restore shipping in the Red Sea. A🧵with my analysis & charts from JINSA’s Houthi Projectile Tracker below. 1/10
May 7, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The truce Trump announced with the Houthis will leave the terrorist threat intact, without any indication it will bring an end to Houthi strikes on Israel or restore shipping in the Red Sea. A🧵with my analysis & charts from JINSA’s Houthi Projectile Tracker below. 1/10
Large fires around Jerusalem have led to multiple areas being evacuated and the cancellation of Independence Day events throughout Israel due to weather caused by the fires.
April 30, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Large fires around Jerusalem have led to multiple areas being evacuated and the cancellation of Independence Day events throughout Israel due to weather caused by the fires.
The Trump administration launched an average of 500 percent more strikes per operation against the Houthis compared to when the Biden administration launched strikes from January 2024 to January 2025.
March 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The Trump administration launched an average of 500 percent more strikes per operation against the Houthis compared to when the Biden administration launched strikes from January 2024 to January 2025.
Since first striking the Houthis on March 15, the Trump administration has targeted the group every day, decreasing the number of days between operations by 66% compared to when the Biden administration launched operations from January 2024 to January 2025.
March 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Since first striking the Houthis on March 15, the Trump administration has targeted the group every day, decreasing the number of days between operations by 66% compared to when the Biden administration launched operations from January 2024 to January 2025.
The US launched 423% more strikes during its operation against the Houthis in March 2025 alone than it had during all of its operations targeting the Iran-backed terrorist group in Yemen since November 2024.
March 19, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The US launched 423% more strikes during its operation against the Houthis in March 2025 alone than it had during all of its operations targeting the Iran-backed terrorist group in Yemen since November 2024.
With Israel having dismantled Hamas in Gaza and substantially degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran has turned to its proxies in Iraq to attack Israel. Iraqi militias have launched 92 projectiles against Israel in Nov, on pace to fire 20% more than the peak of 111 in October.
November 22, 2024 at 12:47 AM
With Israel having dismantled Hamas in Gaza and substantially degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran has turned to its proxies in Iraq to attack Israel. Iraqi militias have launched 92 projectiles against Israel in Nov, on pace to fire 20% more than the peak of 111 in October.
Israel has crippled Hezbollah. After a peak of 254 projectiles being fired on average per day in the last week of October, Hezbollah has fired fewer projectiles each subsequent week to an average of just 54 per day since November 15.
November 22, 2024 at 12:47 AM
Israel has crippled Hezbollah. After a peak of 254 projectiles being fired on average per day in the last week of October, Hezbollah has fired fewer projectiles each subsequent week to an average of just 54 per day since November 15.
JINSA's latest Northern Escalation Projectile Tracker out today shows the IDF significantly weakened Hezbollah, Israel expanded ground ops but decreased airstrikes against Hezbollah, and Iran continued to turn to its proxies in Iraq to target Israel. jinsa.org/jinsa_report...
November 22, 2024 at 12:47 AM
JINSA's latest Northern Escalation Projectile Tracker out today shows the IDF significantly weakened Hezbollah, Israel expanded ground ops but decreased airstrikes against Hezbollah, and Iran continued to turn to its proxies in Iraq to target Israel. jinsa.org/jinsa_report...