Tobias Gehrke
@tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
Geoeconomics and economic security at European Council on Foreign Relations | PhD
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
ecfr.eu
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs.
"The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr
"The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr
November 24, 2025 at 7:02 AM
“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs.
"The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr
"The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr
Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates.
Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement
Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, EU scrambles for its dictionary
The EU is preparing to unveil a new doctrine on economic security, but it’s a concept that officials and experts say has no clear definition.
www.scmp.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:27 AM
Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates.
Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement
Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, EU scrambles for its dictionary
The EU is preparing to unveil a new doctrine on economic security, but it’s a concept that officials and experts say has no clear definition.
www.scmp.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:00 AM
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd
https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
bit.ly
November 23, 2025 at 12:22 PM
There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd
https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters.
🧵
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters.
🧵
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
ecfr.eu
November 21, 2025 at 2:42 PM
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters.
🧵
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters.
🧵
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
ecfr.eu
November 20, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu/article/how-...
America is eating Europe’s lunch again.
Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs.
But...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs.
But...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
Europe’s Biggest Rare Earths Producer Forges U.S. Deals
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:10 AM
America is eating Europe’s lunch again.
Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs.
But...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs.
But...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting:
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
United States - Japan Framework for Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing
Whereas, critical minerals and rare earths are essential for the production of advanced technologies; Whereas, the United States of America (the “United
www.whitehouse.gov
October 28, 2025 at 9:25 AM
After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting:
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
1st US heavy rare earths separation facility planned in Louisiana - Asia Times
A Canadian mining company plans to build a facility in Louisiana's Calcasieu Parish to refine rare earth metals used in a variety of motors and
asiatimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 8:05 AM
A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
October 28, 2025 at 7:52 AM
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 27, 2025 at 12:17 PM
If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
This is a really good speech from VDL.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
This is an era of geoeconomics.
And we must use our geoeconomic weight to protect our strategic sectors and supply chains
It’s a matter of national security.
And Europe has what it takes to thrive in this new confrontational world ↓
link.europa.eu/hvyWFM
And we must use our geoeconomic weight to protect our strategic sectors and supply chains
It’s a matter of national security.
And Europe has what it takes to thrive in this new confrontational world ↓
link.europa.eu/hvyWFM
October 26, 2025 at 9:00 AM
This is a really good speech from VDL.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
Handelsblatt
www.handelsblatt.com
October 25, 2025 at 10:31 AM
A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
- 100% in aerospace and defence sectors
- 95% in mechanical engineering
- 86% in medical technology
- 49% in automotive
www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons.
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Huawei’s solar tech sparks fears of Europe’s next dependency crisis
Cyber officials fear the Chinese tech giant’s grip on energy networks.
www.politico.eu
October 24, 2025 at 1:30 PM
The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons.
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe.
Disaster in the making...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found.
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Macron at EUCO
To counter China’s trade offensive, Macron called on the Commission to “launch investigations” to “defend ourselves in a coordinated manner"
“The very ability of Europeans to maintain autonomous production is being called into question”
To counter China’s trade offensive, Macron called on the Commission to “launch investigations” to “defend ourselves in a coordinated manner"
“The very ability of Europeans to maintain autonomous production is being called into question”
EU Summit: From Ukraine to the 2040 climate target – here’s how it went | Euractiv
As EU leaders met in Brussels, we followed their packed agenda including Ukraine, European defence, and the situation in the Middle East
www.euractiv.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:00 AM
The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found.
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Tactically, EU is also waiting for
- US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain?
- Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
bit.ly
October 23, 2025 at 2:34 PM
A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu.
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 21, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu.
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
bit.ly
October 22, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
https://bit.ly/475mPLG
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr-eu.cdn.ampproject.org
October 21, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
Points to chokepoints Europe could use:
-older DUV machines
-airplane components
-high precision bearings
-powdered superalloys
The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
ecfr.eu
October 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
@jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target
Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
The new age of weaponisation lays bare Europe's weaknesses
Does the EU have what it takes to survive in the age of weaponisation? Recent events have cast light on the crucial question. #EuropeNews
euronews.com
September 25, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?
My long read is out this morning.
Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
September 17, 2025 at 10:10 AM
What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
September 3, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄