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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 22d

Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos.

Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation?

My long read is out this morning.

The new age of weaponisation lays bare Europe's weaknesses

Does the EU have what it takes to survive in the age of weaponisation? Recent events have cast light on the crucial question. #EuropeNews

euronews.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.bsky.social · Sep 17

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇
ecfr.eu/publication/...

Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics

The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…

ecfr.eu

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Sep 3

Do you mean negotiation tactic with the Americans? or within the EU political economy?

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Sep 3

Via Noah's excellent newsletter:

www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

Watching China in Europe—September 2025

www.gmfus.org

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Sep 3

Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal

I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Aug 29

“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Aug 29

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered

My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight

www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered

Top trade officials break ranks to admit the bloc does not have structures to move as the US and China do in the economic security space.

www.scmp.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · Aug 27

Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet.

It is just evolving.

My analysis.

Trump's new tariff threat suggests the EU-US trade war isn't over yet

Brussels hoped the EU-US deal would finally put an end to the trade war. But Donald Trump's new tariff threat suggests the story is far from over. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Aug 21

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal.

Language relating to China in this short thread:

policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade

The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade ('Framework Agreement').

policy.trade.ec.europa.eu

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Clyde Russell @clydecommods.bsky.social · Jul 28

The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

EU's pledge for $250 billion of US energy imports is delusional

There are strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president in the framework agreement reached with the European Union.

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Jul 23

As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help.

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion

Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

ecfr.eu

4 12 31

Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · Jul 17

How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican?

@kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...

Trump Embraces State Capitalism

The level of U.S. government economic intervention under Trump 2.0 is off the charts.

foreignpolicy.com

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Jul 15

🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️
This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal.
Listen, share and subscribe🔗

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

bit.ly

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 15

More in our emergency podcast for @ecfr.eu

ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

ecfr.eu

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 15

4) The only move left is political. Von der Leyen, Meloni, Merz, Tusk. Some or all of them need to meet Trump directly. If that fails, there’s nothing left to negotiate, and the EU should retaliate right away.

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 15

3) The big question now: what’s the plan for the next two weeks? Technical talks look boxed in. Trump likely tanked the draft deal not over details, but optics. So sending Sefcovic back to DC seems pointless.

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 15

2) Still no clear message on the Anti-Coercion Instrument. Even without triggering it now, EU capitals could have at least explicitly given it political backing if talks collapse. That would have sent a strong signal (especially to markets, which so far don’t seem to care).

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 15

Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats:

1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming.

...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Tariff tensions: Avoiding an EU-US trade war

Mark Leonard welcomes Tobias Gehrke to unpack the escalating EU-US trade war and Europe’s next moves…

ecfr.eu

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 14

i think the 72 is what is left of the 95.
so 93 in total

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 14

He now even apologized for his earlier phrase. wow. someone must have been upset

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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 14

Funny how Rasmussen in the presser afterwards just completely flip-flopped on this statement, saying he does not believe in 'escalate to deescalate'. huh?

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · Jul 14

Rasmussen:

"I think we shouldn't rule out any possibilities. We have to prepare for countermeasures, and we must stay open to using all the tools in the toolbox"

"There's an old saying, if you want peace, you have to prepare for war - I think that's where we are.

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · Jul 14

Can confirm that this has been read by pretty much every official involved in working out what to do. Also on the US side.

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · Jul 13

Faced with Trump's 30% tariff, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive map of its retaliatory options; ranging across goods, services, IP, digital, finance & people-to-people measures (including their cost to Europe).

Fortunately, we @ecfr.eu have already published that map:

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion

Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

ecfr.eu

6 17 82

Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · Jul 13

Faced with Trump's 30% tariff, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive map of its retaliatory options; ranging across goods, services, IP, digital, finance & people-to-people measures (including their cost to Europe).

Fortunately, we @ecfr.eu have already published that map:

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion

Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relations it has ways of retaliating…

ecfr.eu

16 42 140

Reposted by Tobias Gehrke

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Jul 10

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social in his latest policy alert for ECFR🔗https://buff.ly/B3xP36y

What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

ecfr.eu

1 5 7

Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · Jul 10

@ecfr.eu @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social

ecfr.eu/article/what...

What went wrong in Europe’s trade gamble with Trump

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards.

ecfr.eu

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