Tobias Gehrke
@tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
Geoeconomics and economic security at European Council on Foreign Relations | PhD
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
October 28, 2025 at 7:52 AM
More trouble ahead
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan"
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
September 3, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
I'm sceptical
- does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging
- "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather
- IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
“Is Trump good for your country?” @ecfr.eu asked Europe’s far-right parties. The results are split
Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland
One reason...
Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland
One reason...
June 25, 2025 at 8:17 AM
“Is Trump good for your country?” @ecfr.eu asked Europe’s far-right parties. The results are split
Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland
One reason...
Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland
One reason...
Venture capital tech investment in Europe is a fifth of US levels
“There are a lot of scattered, small amounts of capital, and then you have these very large, slow-moving, bureaucratic, quasi-government agencies. And you don’t have very much in the middle"
www.wsj.com/tech/europe-...
“There are a lot of scattered, small amounts of capital, and then you have these very large, slow-moving, bureaucratic, quasi-government agencies. And you don’t have very much in the middle"
www.wsj.com/tech/europe-...
June 3, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Venture capital tech investment in Europe is a fifth of US levels
“There are a lot of scattered, small amounts of capital, and then you have these very large, slow-moving, bureaucratic, quasi-government agencies. And you don’t have very much in the middle"
www.wsj.com/tech/europe-...
“There are a lot of scattered, small amounts of capital, and then you have these very large, slow-moving, bureaucratic, quasi-government agencies. And you don’t have very much in the middle"
www.wsj.com/tech/europe-...
had an icelandic vibe
May 17, 2025 at 9:15 PM
had an icelandic vibe
Interesting divergence between East and West among European visitors to the US
May 13, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Interesting divergence between East and West among European visitors to the US
I would have guessed Boeing has a better grip on the US market and hence maybe no asymmetry. But that seems not to be the case. If others (China) also retaliate against Boeing however, things look different
May 7, 2025 at 10:27 AM
I would have guessed Boeing has a better grip on the US market and hence maybe no asymmetry. But that seems not to be the case. If others (China) also retaliate against Boeing however, things look different
...and for the long-term
April 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
...and for the long-term
...for the mid-term (90 weeks)...
April 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
...for the mid-term (90 weeks)...
Some key things to keep in mind for the short-term (90 days) negotiations...
April 28, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Some key things to keep in mind for the short-term (90 days) negotiations...
All EU leaders should copy this
Business investment announcements could be part of negotiations. If they hold off just a bit, politicians could try to leverage them in the talks. Every announcement made before talks the US banks for free.
A bit of state-private coordination could go a long way
Business investment announcements could be part of negotiations. If they hold off just a bit, politicians could try to leverage them in the talks. Every announcement made before talks the US banks for free.
A bit of state-private coordination could go a long way
April 11, 2025 at 1:41 PM
All EU leaders should copy this
Business investment announcements could be part of negotiations. If they hold off just a bit, politicians could try to leverage them in the talks. Every announcement made before talks the US banks for free.
A bit of state-private coordination could go a long way
Business investment announcements could be part of negotiations. If they hold off just a bit, politicians could try to leverage them in the talks. Every announcement made before talks the US banks for free.
A bit of state-private coordination could go a long way
Based on @fbermingham.bsky.social's excellent interview thread with EU trade ministers I asked ChatGPT to draw up a table of the EU member state positions on retaliation vs Trump
April 7, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Based on @fbermingham.bsky.social's excellent interview thread with EU trade ministers I asked ChatGPT to draw up a table of the EU member state positions on retaliation vs Trump
“Europe holds a lot of cards” to respond to US coercion, von der Leyen told Parliament yesterday.
Time to play Brussels Hold’em on Liberation Day. I mapped Europe’s hand in my latest:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Time to play Brussels Hold’em on Liberation Day. I mapped Europe’s hand in my latest:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
April 2, 2025 at 7:14 AM
“Europe holds a lot of cards” to respond to US coercion, von der Leyen told Parliament yesterday.
Time to play Brussels Hold’em on Liberation Day. I mapped Europe’s hand in my latest:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Time to play Brussels Hold’em on Liberation Day. I mapped Europe’s hand in my latest:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
the secondary tariff examples you give are scary and... realistic
This is Stephen Miller's thinking about the use of tariffs ahead of inauguration. his last example is 🫠
This is Stephen Miller's thinking about the use of tariffs ahead of inauguration. his last example is 🫠
March 29, 2025 at 9:55 AM
the secondary tariff examples you give are scary and... realistic
This is Stephen Miller's thinking about the use of tariffs ahead of inauguration. his last example is 🫠
This is Stephen Miller's thinking about the use of tariffs ahead of inauguration. his last example is 🫠
Canadian consumer backlash against America is significant, from tourism to supermarkets to cars.
Anecdotes from Europe are also growing but could be supported significantly by politicians in the wake of Signal-gate
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Anecdotes from Europe are also growing but could be supported significantly by politicians in the wake of Signal-gate
ecfr.eu/publication/...
March 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Canadian consumer backlash against America is significant, from tourism to supermarkets to cars.
Anecdotes from Europe are also growing but could be supported significantly by politicians in the wake of Signal-gate
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Anecdotes from Europe are also growing but could be supported significantly by politicians in the wake of Signal-gate
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Belgium's 🇧🇪 Foreign Minister Prévot says the EU should fight fire with fire in Trump’s trade war - including in the digital realm.
Here are a few ideas from my paper on what could be done in digital/services
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Here are a few ideas from my paper on what could be done in digital/services
ecfr.eu/publication/...
March 24, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Belgium's 🇧🇪 Foreign Minister Prévot says the EU should fight fire with fire in Trump’s trade war - including in the digital realm.
Here are a few ideas from my paper on what could be done in digital/services
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Here are a few ideas from my paper on what could be done in digital/services
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Worth repeating just how unserious big European states' aid to Ukraine has been
▪️ In 1990 Germany allocated a greater share of its GDP to support Kuwait than it does to Ukraine (0.2%)
▪️ Japan provides more bilateral aid than France, Italy and Spain in absolute and relative terms
▪️ In 1990 Germany allocated a greater share of its GDP to support Kuwait than it does to Ukraine (0.2%)
▪️ Japan provides more bilateral aid than France, Italy and Spain in absolute and relative terms
February 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Worth repeating just how unserious big European states' aid to Ukraine has been
▪️ In 1990 Germany allocated a greater share of its GDP to support Kuwait than it does to Ukraine (0.2%)
▪️ Japan provides more bilateral aid than France, Italy and Spain in absolute and relative terms
▪️ In 1990 Germany allocated a greater share of its GDP to support Kuwait than it does to Ukraine (0.2%)
▪️ Japan provides more bilateral aid than France, Italy and Spain in absolute and relative terms
February 12, 2025 at 8:51 AM
also down in many other EU countries
February 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
also down in many other EU countries
🇨🇦 PM Trudeau is coming to Europe this week to boost ties.
One way is to support exporters on both sides to make use of CETA's preferential tariffs
Overall, traders make use of only 58% of CETA tariff reductions, compared to 78% for South Korea and 70% for Japan.
One way is to support exporters on both sides to make use of CETA's preferential tariffs
Overall, traders make use of only 58% of CETA tariff reductions, compared to 78% for South Korea and 70% for Japan.
February 10, 2025 at 7:09 AM
🇨🇦 PM Trudeau is coming to Europe this week to boost ties.
One way is to support exporters on both sides to make use of CETA's preferential tariffs
Overall, traders make use of only 58% of CETA tariff reductions, compared to 78% for South Korea and 70% for Japan.
One way is to support exporters on both sides to make use of CETA's preferential tariffs
Overall, traders make use of only 58% of CETA tariff reductions, compared to 78% for South Korea and 70% for Japan.
Tesla sales are down 50% YoY across Europe 👀
February 6, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Tesla sales are down 50% YoY across Europe 👀
The problem is that this exact line of argument already fell flat in 2018 —why would it work now?
February 5, 2025 at 7:26 AM
The problem is that this exact line of argument already fell flat in 2018 —why would it work now?
Does he know this well?
Feels like one of the many remnant transatlanticist ideas that feel reassuring but may have little meaning.
Feels like one of the many remnant transatlanticist ideas that feel reassuring but may have little meaning.
February 3, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Does he know this well?
Feels like one of the many remnant transatlanticist ideas that feel reassuring but may have little meaning.
Feels like one of the many remnant transatlanticist ideas that feel reassuring but may have little meaning.
The 🇪🇺 has 10 active IPCEIs (which allow coordinating subsidies for critical tech innovation and infrastructure).
They have been supported with EUR 37 billion in state aid and an expected EUR 66 billion in private investments
They have been supported with EUR 37 billion in state aid and an expected EUR 66 billion in private investments
January 30, 2025 at 7:24 AM
The 🇪🇺 has 10 active IPCEIs (which allow coordinating subsidies for critical tech innovation and infrastructure).
They have been supported with EUR 37 billion in state aid and an expected EUR 66 billion in private investments
They have been supported with EUR 37 billion in state aid and an expected EUR 66 billion in private investments