Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.bsky.social
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, vaccines
📬 [email protected] | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com | 📮open
Pinned
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Ukraine faces US$155bn funding gap for 2026-27
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
November 28, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Ukraine faces US$155bn funding gap for 2026-27
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
• With US out of the equation, Europe is in the driver’s seat to help Ukraine plug its budget gap
• Ukraine has also just started negotiations for a new loan with the IMF, but this one will require US signoff
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
📣Join us in Berlin next Tuesday to discuss Europe's response to Trumponomics with @agathedemarais.bsky.social!
Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
November 28, 2025 at 11:47 AM
📣Join us in Berlin next Tuesday to discuss Europe's response to Trumponomics with @agathedemarais.bsky.social!
Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
Prices of export-controlled goods shipped from China to Russia rose by 87% on average in 2021-24
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
November 28, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Prices of export-controlled goods shipped from China to Russia rose by 87% on average in 2021-24
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
• By contrast, price of similar Chinese goods shipped elsewhere in the world rose by only 9%
• Data show impact of sanctions on Russian war effort as inflated prices curb Russian firms' purchasing power
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
A jolt of optimism that Brussels and Mercosur can finally seal their trade deal this year has given way to trepidation that everything could fall apart just before the finish line.
The EU’s narrow, perilous path to the Mercosur trade deal
With @maxgriera.bsky.social
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
The EU’s narrow, perilous path to the Mercosur trade deal
With @maxgriera.bsky.social
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
The EU’s narrow, perilous path to the Mercosur trade deal
Fresh pushback in the European Parliament and hesitation in EU capitals could still derail a push to sign the accord before Christmas.
www.politico.eu
November 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM
A jolt of optimism that Brussels and Mercosur can finally seal their trade deal this year has given way to trepidation that everything could fall apart just before the finish line.
The EU’s narrow, perilous path to the Mercosur trade deal
With @maxgriera.bsky.social
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
The EU’s narrow, perilous path to the Mercosur trade deal
With @maxgriera.bsky.social
www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
What are Trump's plans in the trade, investment and financial spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us on Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social around tea to discuss these topics - more info and registration 🫖 🍵 👇 @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics | ECFR
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to
ecfr.eu
November 27, 2025 at 3:58 PM
What are Trump's plans in the trade, investment and financial spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us on Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social around tea to discuss these topics - more info and registration 🫖 🍵 👇 @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Donald Trump se tire une balle dans le pied en attaquant violemment l’Afrique du Sud pour un soi-disant genocide des Afrikaners. C’est Pékin qui se frotte les mains devant un tel contre sens diplomatique. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...
Pourquoi Donald Trump s’en prend violemment à l’Afrique du Sud
Le président américain n’invitera pas l’Afrique du Sud au prochain G20 sur le sol américain, et coupe tout financement à ce pays, l’accusant de mener un génocide des Afrikaners. Les démentis n’y font ...
www.radiofrance.fr
November 28, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Donald Trump se tire une balle dans le pied en attaquant violemment l’Afrique du Sud pour un soi-disant genocide des Afrikaners. C’est Pékin qui se frotte les mains devant un tel contre sens diplomatique. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
November 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
What are Trump's plans in the trade, investment and financial spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us on Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social around tea to discuss these topics - more info and registration 🫖 🍵 👇 @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics | ECFR
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to
ecfr.eu
November 27, 2025 at 3:58 PM
What are Trump's plans in the trade, investment and financial spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us on Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social around tea to discuss these topics - more info and registration 🫖 🍵 👇 @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
“When everyone had arrived, having read The Financial Times, there were some questions,” Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister, said with dry understatement in an interview.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/27/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/27/w...
Trump Cut Europe Out of Ukraine Talks. Here’s How Europe Pushed Back.
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:59 PM
“When everyone had arrived, having read The Financial Times, there were some questions,” Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister, said with dry understatement in an interview.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/27/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/27/w...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
1/ Cory Doctorow lays out the dangers of relying on US-centric systems — the dollar/tech platforms — and the need for radical projects of interoperability and strategic autonomy.
doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...
doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...
O(N²) nationalism
Trumpism can only be defeated throuh international nationalism.
doctorow.medium.com
November 27, 2025 at 12:41 PM
1/ Cory Doctorow lays out the dangers of relying on US-centric systems — the dollar/tech platforms — and the need for radical projects of interoperability and strategic autonomy.
doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...
doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
November 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM
US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Euroclear warns plan for a Ukraine loan raised from Russian frozen assets “will lead to a sustained increase in European sovereign bond spreads, raising borrowing costs for all member states” in letter to @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu seen by @bmoens.bsky.social & @lauramdubois.ft.com
on.ft.com/3M4lRHg
on.ft.com/3M4lRHg
EU’s frozen-assets loan plan risks rattling markets, Euroclear warns
[FREE TO READ] Proposal for ‘reparations’ funding for Ukraine using immobilised Russian assets would be seen as ‘confiscation’
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Euroclear warns plan for a Ukraine loan raised from Russian frozen assets “will lead to a sustained increase in European sovereign bond spreads, raising borrowing costs for all member states” in letter to @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu seen by @bmoens.bsky.social & @lauramdubois.ft.com
on.ft.com/3M4lRHg
on.ft.com/3M4lRHg
Climate change could fuel spread of infectious diseases
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
November 27, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Climate change could fuel spread of infectious diseases
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
• The warmer and the wetter the weather is, the faster mosquitoes can breed, mature and bite
• Between 1951-60 and 2015-24 potential for Aedes albopictus mosquito to transmit dengue jumped by almost 50%
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Robin Harding: On a recent trip to mainland China, I found myself posing the same question, again and again, to the economists, technologists and business leaders who I met with. “Trade is an exchange. You provide something of value to me, and in return, I must offer something of value to you.
China is making trade impossible
Europe has nothing to offer and difficult decisions to make
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Robin Harding: On a recent trip to mainland China, I found myself posing the same question, again and again, to the economists, technologists and business leaders who I met with. “Trade is an exchange. You provide something of value to me, and in return, I must offer something of value to you.
"The EU will unveil a legal proposal in the coming days that would finally enable the bloc to use Russia’s immobilized central bank assets for a €140 billion loan to Ukraine. [...] Ursula von der Leyen [said] Brussels [is] now ready to present the text."
EU Prepares Legal Plan to Unlock €140 Billion Ukraine Loan
The European Union will unveil a legal proposal in the coming days that would finally enable the bloc to use Russia’s immobilized central bank assets for a €140 billion ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine.
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:00 PM
"The EU will unveil a legal proposal in the coming days that would finally enable the bloc to use Russia’s immobilized central bank assets for a €140 billion loan to Ukraine. [...] Ursula von der Leyen [said] Brussels [is] now ready to present the text."
What are Trump's plans in the trade (tariffs), investment (decoupling) and financial (US dollar depreciation) spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us next Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social to discuss these topics - more info and registration 👇
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics | ECFR
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to
ecfr.eu
November 26, 2025 at 11:01 AM
What are Trump's plans in the trade (tariffs), investment (decoupling) and financial (US dollar depreciation) spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us next Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social to discuss these topics - more info and registration 👇
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Frikkin amazing stuff.
November 26, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Frikkin amazing stuff.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
"It is time that we stop discussing different options and move forward," Valdis Dombrovskis told @euronews.com.
The reparations loan "can provide sizable support for Ukraine without putting additional and substantial fiscal burden on the EU or its member states."
The reparations loan "can provide sizable support for Ukraine without putting additional and substantial fiscal burden on the EU or its member states."
EU should use frozen assets for Ukraine, Dombrovskis tells Euronews
In an interview with Euronews' flagship morning show Europe Today, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Valdis Dombrovskis said that the EU should stop discussing the options to finance ...
www.euronews.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:56 AM
"It is time that we stop discussing different options and move forward," Valdis Dombrovskis told @euronews.com.
The reparations loan "can provide sizable support for Ukraine without putting additional and substantial fiscal burden on the EU or its member states."
The reparations loan "can provide sizable support for Ukraine without putting additional and substantial fiscal burden on the EU or its member states."
Global progress to curb CO2 emissions remains uneven across top emitters
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
November 26, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Global progress to curb CO2 emissions remains uneven across top emitters
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
• Australia, UK, EU and (to a lesser extent) the US have reduced emissions over past 20 years
• China's emissions have grown since '00; country is biggest CO2 emitter (although emissions may now have peaked)
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
It would be lovely to see you!
🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 2:32 PM
It would be lovely to see you!
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
[provisions of the U.S.-Russia plan are alarming, they also present an opportunity for Europeans to potentially block it: If the 🇪🇺seizes Russia’s central bank assets before Washington does, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is a bad & dangerous deal for both 🇺🇦 & 🇪🇺]
November 25, 2025 at 4:35 PM
[provisions of the U.S.-Russia plan are alarming, they also present an opportunity for Europeans to potentially block it: If the 🇪🇺seizes Russia’s central bank assets before Washington does, the bloc may be able to significantly curb Trump’s interest in what is a bad & dangerous deal for both 🇺🇦 & 🇪🇺]
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
November 25, 2025 at 4:02 PM
African countries may need to prioritise electrification to boost growth
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
• Power supply per head has dropped in Nigeria over past 15 years, in stark contrast with 21% rise globally
• Nigeria’s grid usually only has 5GW of available power for 230m people - the same as Croatia for 4m citizens
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
On Russia’s frozen assets, Europeans have a clear choice: use their biggest leverage to back Ukraine and shape the U.S.–Russia plan, or let Washington seize the money for the benefit of both the U.S. and Russia, argues @agathedemarais.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
foreignpolicy.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:35 AM
On Russia’s frozen assets, Europeans have a clear choice: use their biggest leverage to back Ukraine and shape the U.S.–Russia plan, or let Washington seize the money for the benefit of both the U.S. and Russia, argues @agathedemarais.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
The administration stayed home from Halifax and forced the US military to do so as well. This isn’t an aberration: Also over the weekend, the administration boycotted the G20 in S Africa. How does the Trump team expect to win any diplomatic victories when it’s not even on the field? wapo.st/4oZH3wz
Opinion | America has become a rogue nation. U.S. allies are looking elsewhere.
Europeans and Canadians are talking about making their own security arrangements.
wapo.st
November 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The administration stayed home from Halifax and forced the US military to do so as well. This isn’t an aberration: Also over the weekend, the administration boycotted the G20 in S Africa. How does the Trump team expect to win any diplomatic victories when it’s not even on the field? wapo.st/4oZH3wz