Tiziano Breda
@tizbreda.bsky.social
Senior Analyst, Latin America & the Caribbean at ACLED.
Formerly with International Crisis Group and Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Reposts do not necessarily reflect my or ACLED views.
Formerly with International Crisis Group and Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Reposts do not necessarily reflect my or ACLED views.
@acleddata.bsky.social Latin America & the Caribbean RO is out and feats:
#Brazil Congress approves anti-gangs bill amid deadlier clashes between security forces and gangs
#Colombia Airstrikes against EMC trigger retaliation and public backlash over child fatalities ...
acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Brazil Congress approves anti-gangs bill amid deadlier clashes between security forces and gangs
#Colombia Airstrikes against EMC trigger retaliation and public backlash over child fatalities ...
acleddata.com/update/latin...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: December 2025
Anti-gang operations in Haiti escalated around Port-au-Prince, the killing of a mayor in Mexico triggered protests, and the Trump administration doubled down its pressure on Maduro.
acleddata.com
December 9, 2025 at 11:47 AM
@acleddata.bsky.social Latin America & the Caribbean RO is out and feats:
#Brazil Congress approves anti-gangs bill amid deadlier clashes between security forces and gangs
#Colombia Airstrikes against EMC trigger retaliation and public backlash over child fatalities ...
acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Brazil Congress approves anti-gangs bill amid deadlier clashes between security forces and gangs
#Colombia Airstrikes against EMC trigger retaliation and public backlash over child fatalities ...
acleddata.com/update/latin...
Reposted by Tiziano Breda
This analysis of crime indicators in Honduras by @tizbreda.bsky.social illustrates the fragility of gains from mano dura policing: moving violence from urban to rural areas, and hiding murders as disappearances pays off politically with city voters, but doesn’t solve fundamental problems.
Violence has gone down during Xiomara Castro’s term, but has security improved in Honduras?
Gangs have resorted less to public displays of violence during the state of exception, but their presence in urban areas has not been dented, while organized crime groups have expanded their activitie...
acleddata.com
November 30, 2025 at 6:11 PM
This analysis of crime indicators in Honduras by @tizbreda.bsky.social illustrates the fragility of gains from mano dura policing: moving violence from urban to rural areas, and hiding murders as disappearances pays off politically with city voters, but doesn’t solve fundamental problems.
Tuve el placer de unirme a Miguel Cálix y Juan Carlos Aguilar a distancia a la conversación de ICN Digital sobre la evolución de la seguridad en #Honduras, los planes de los principales candidatos, y los riesgos relacionados al proceso electoral. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRmQ...
¿Qué proponen los candidatos para mejorar la gobernanza en Honduras? | EN VIVO 🔴
YouTube video by ICN.Digital
www.youtube.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Tuve el placer de unirme a Miguel Cálix y Juan Carlos Aguilar a distancia a la conversación de ICN Digital sobre la evolución de la seguridad en #Honduras, los planes de los principales candidatos, y los riesgos relacionados al proceso electoral. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRmQ...
@acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview for Latin America and the Caribbean is out and features:
#Brazil A security operation against the CV leaves at least 121 dead in Rio de Janeiro
#US expands strikes against criminal groups to the Pacific 1/2 acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Brazil A security operation against the CV leaves at least 121 dead in Rio de Janeiro
#US expands strikes against criminal groups to the Pacific 1/2 acleddata.com/update/latin...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: November 2025
An operation against the CV gang killed at least 121 people in Rio de Janeiro, gangs expanded across multiple areas in Artibonite, Haiti, and US strikes on vessels in the Pacific fueled diplomatic ten...
acleddata.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:57 PM
@acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview for Latin America and the Caribbean is out and features:
#Brazil A security operation against the CV leaves at least 121 dead in Rio de Janeiro
#US expands strikes against criminal groups to the Pacific 1/2 acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Brazil A security operation against the CV leaves at least 121 dead in Rio de Janeiro
#US expands strikes against criminal groups to the Pacific 1/2 acleddata.com/update/latin...
I've had again the pleasure to comment on The Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor on #Guatemala's approval of a new anti-gang law, looking at its timeliness, implications and shortcomings. thedialogue.org/wp-content/u...
thedialogue.org
November 5, 2025 at 4:40 PM
I've had again the pleasure to comment on The Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor on #Guatemala's approval of a new anti-gang law, looking at its timeliness, implications and shortcomings. thedialogue.org/wp-content/u...
"Eliminating high-level gang members doesn't necessarily bring relief — it leads to the atomization of these groups. As the number of groups to confront increases, it becomes harder to prioritize and dismantle them," I told @reuters.com on #Ecuador. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:55 PM
"Eliminating high-level gang members doesn't necessarily bring relief — it leads to the atomization of these groups. As the number of groups to confront increases, it becomes harder to prioritize and dismantle them," I told @reuters.com on #Ecuador. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
@acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview is out and features:
#Argentina Milei faces electoral defeat and growing street pressure amid corruption allegations
#Brazil Bolsonaro’s conviction triggers political upheaval and mass mobilization
acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Argentina Milei faces electoral defeat and growing street pressure amid corruption allegations
#Brazil Bolsonaro’s conviction triggers political upheaval and mass mobilization
acleddata.com/update/latin...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: October 2025
Brazilians protested amid Bolsonaro’s sentencing, Argentines protested Milei’s policies and corruption, and the Viv Ansanm alliance expanded its operations in Haiti.
acleddata.com
October 3, 2025 at 2:25 PM
@acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview is out and features:
#Argentina Milei faces electoral defeat and growing street pressure amid corruption allegations
#Brazil Bolsonaro’s conviction triggers political upheaval and mass mobilization
acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Argentina Milei faces electoral defeat and growing street pressure amid corruption allegations
#Brazil Bolsonaro’s conviction triggers political upheaval and mass mobilization
acleddata.com/update/latin...
Qué busca la administración Trump con otros ataques a lanchas en el Caribe?
Demonstrar "que el primer ataque no fue un caso aislado, sino que se está buscando estandarizar esta práctica como nuevo método de combate al narcotráfico", dije a @dw_espanol. amp.dw.com/es/ataques-a...
Demonstrar "que el primer ataque no fue un caso aislado, sino que se está buscando estandarizar esta práctica como nuevo método de combate al narcotráfico", dije a @dw_espanol. amp.dw.com/es/ataques-a...
Ataques a lanchas con drogas: "ejecuciones extrajudiciales" – DW – 16/09/2025
Expertos ven una consolidación de la política antidrogas desplegada por Trump en el mar Caribe, la que ―sin embargo― presenta cuestiones legales de las que poco se habla.
amp.dw.com
September 17, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Qué busca la administración Trump con otros ataques a lanchas en el Caribe?
Demonstrar "que el primer ataque no fue un caso aislado, sino que se está buscando estandarizar esta práctica como nuevo método de combate al narcotráfico", dije a @dw_espanol. amp.dw.com/es/ataques-a...
Demonstrar "que el primer ataque no fue un caso aislado, sino que se está buscando estandarizar esta práctica como nuevo método de combate al narcotráfico", dije a @dw_espanol. amp.dw.com/es/ataques-a...
It's D-Day in #Bolivia, where polls will put an end to a 20-year hegemony of leftist MAS party, due to its own implosion and an economic downturn. Yet, the election is rejected by supporters of Evo Morales, who was banned. Will there be turmoil? 👇 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes
The dispute between Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce has triggered deadly violence in defense of Morales’ cause, which signals the power of his supporters to question the legitimacy of an e...
acleddata.com
August 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM
It's D-Day in #Bolivia, where polls will put an end to a 20-year hegemony of leftist MAS party, due to its own implosion and an economic downturn. Yet, the election is rejected by supporters of Evo Morales, who was banned. Will there be turmoil? 👇 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
@acleddata.bsky.social LATAM RO for July 2025 is out and features:
#Bolivia Mobilizations in support of Morales subside, but tensions persist ahead of the election
#Guatemala Teachers’ demonstrations drive largest number of protests since President Arévalo took office acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Bolivia Mobilizations in support of Morales subside, but tensions persist ahead of the election
#Guatemala Teachers’ demonstrations drive largest number of protests since President Arévalo took office acleddata.com/update/latin...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: August 2025
In July, the Los Choneros leader’s arrest in Manabí, Ecuador, triggered a deadly dispute, the government in Trinidad and Tobago imposed a new state of emergency, and artisanal miners in Peru mobilized...
acleddata.com
August 11, 2025 at 10:55 AM
@acleddata.bsky.social LATAM RO for July 2025 is out and features:
#Bolivia Mobilizations in support of Morales subside, but tensions persist ahead of the election
#Guatemala Teachers’ demonstrations drive largest number of protests since President Arévalo took office acleddata.com/update/latin...
#Bolivia Mobilizations in support of Morales subside, but tensions persist ahead of the election
#Guatemala Teachers’ demonstrations drive largest number of protests since President Arévalo took office acleddata.com/update/latin...
Evo Morales has been formally excluded from the 17 August election in #Bolivia, but his supporters have threatened to obstruct a process they consider illegitimate.
@acleddata.bsky.social new Election Watch explores the risks of turmoil around the upcoming election.🧵 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
@acleddata.bsky.social new Election Watch explores the risks of turmoil around the upcoming election.🧵 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes
The dispute between Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce has triggered deadly violence in defense of Morales’ cause, which signals the power of his supporters to question the legitimacy of an e...
acleddata.com
August 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Evo Morales has been formally excluded from the 17 August election in #Bolivia, but his supporters have threatened to obstruct a process they consider illegitimate.
@acleddata.bsky.social new Election Watch explores the risks of turmoil around the upcoming election.🧵 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
@acleddata.bsky.social new Election Watch explores the risks of turmoil around the upcoming election.🧵 acleddata.com/report/boliv...
Tuve el placer de conversar con Gladys Rodríguez en TVV Network sobre las reformas constitucionales en #ElSalvador y sus implicaciones para la democracia en el país. Aquí va la primera parte. www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_hQ...
¿Bukele quiere ser presidente para siempre? | Con Gladys Rodríguez y el analista Tiziano Breda
YouTube video by TVV Internacional
www.youtube.com
August 6, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Tuve el placer de conversar con Gladys Rodríguez en TVV Network sobre las reformas constitucionales en #ElSalvador y sus implicaciones para la democracia en el país. Aquí va la primera parte. www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_hQ...
This month's @acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview for Latin America and Caribbean features:
#Argentina Supreme Court ruling against former President Fernández de Kirchner sparks protests
#Bolivia Clashes between Morales supporters and security forces turn deadly..
acleddata.com/2025/07/04/l...
#Argentina Supreme Court ruling against former President Fernández de Kirchner sparks protests
#Bolivia Clashes between Morales supporters and security forces turn deadly..
acleddata.com/2025/07/04/l...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: July 2025
acleddata.com
July 4, 2025 at 4:22 PM
This month's @acleddata.bsky.social Regional Overview for Latin America and Caribbean features:
#Argentina Supreme Court ruling against former President Fernández de Kirchner sparks protests
#Bolivia Clashes between Morales supporters and security forces turn deadly..
acleddata.com/2025/07/04/l...
#Argentina Supreme Court ruling against former President Fernández de Kirchner sparks protests
#Bolivia Clashes between Morales supporters and security forces turn deadly..
acleddata.com/2025/07/04/l...
No pudiste conectarte al conversatorio de @acleddata.bsky.social sobre la evolución de la violencia de crimen organizado en #Ecuador?
No te preocupes, puedes encontrar la grabación en español aquí:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAky...
No te preocupes, puedes encontrar la grabación en español aquí:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAky...
Violencia de los grupos criminales en Ecuador: Nuevos datos de ACLED
YouTube video by ACLED
www.youtube.com
June 23, 2025 at 12:34 PM
No pudiste conectarte al conversatorio de @acleddata.bsky.social sobre la evolución de la violencia de crimen organizado en #Ecuador?
No te preocupes, puedes encontrar la grabación en español aquí:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAky...
No te preocupes, puedes encontrar la grabación en español aquí:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAky...
Want to know more about gang dynamics in #Ecuador and how data can help analyzing them? Then join @acleddata.bsky.social upcoming webinar on Wednesday 18 June at 9am Quito, 4pm Brussels, featuring Renato Rivera, OECO's Director.
Simultaneous SPA-ENG translation. acleddata.com/events/webin...
Simultaneous SPA-ENG translation. acleddata.com/events/webin...
Webinar | Gang violence in Ecuador: Navigating new ACLED data amid a wave of criminal activity - ACLED
acleddata.com
June 13, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Want to know more about gang dynamics in #Ecuador and how data can help analyzing them? Then join @acleddata.bsky.social upcoming webinar on Wednesday 18 June at 9am Quito, 4pm Brussels, featuring Renato Rivera, OECO's Director.
Simultaneous SPA-ENG translation. acleddata.com/events/webin...
Simultaneous SPA-ENG translation. acleddata.com/events/webin...
En este informe, @ACLEDINFO, analiza tres dimensiones de la violencia en #Ecuador:
1) La expansión de los grupos criminales a dos tercios de los cantones del país
2) La violencia crónica contra figuras políticas desde 2023, con 140+ eventos en las elecciones de 2025 acleddata.com/2025/06/03/e...
1) La expansión de los grupos criminales a dos tercios de los cantones del país
2) La violencia crónica contra figuras políticas desde 2023, con 140+ eventos en las elecciones de 2025 acleddata.com/2025/06/03/e...
Ecuador’s Noboa declared war on 22 gangs. In his new term, he faces many more.
acleddata.com
June 13, 2025 at 9:48 AM
En este informe, @ACLEDINFO, analiza tres dimensiones de la violencia en #Ecuador:
1) La expansión de los grupos criminales a dos tercios de los cantones del país
2) La violencia crónica contra figuras políticas desde 2023, con 140+ eventos en las elecciones de 2025 acleddata.com/2025/06/03/e...
1) La expansión de los grupos criminales a dos tercios de los cantones del país
2) La violencia crónica contra figuras políticas desde 2023, con 140+ eventos en las elecciones de 2025 acleddata.com/2025/06/03/e...
Se ieri non siete riusciti a collegarvi al webinar di Amistades sull'evoluzione del conflitto in #Colombia e delle politiche di Paz Total del governo Petro, lo potete trovare qui. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA8a...
Webinar “Cosa resta del processo Paz Total in Colombia?” - 11 giugno 2025
YouTube video by Centro Studi AMIStaDeS
www.youtube.com
June 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Se ieri non siete riusciti a collegarvi al webinar di Amistades sull'evoluzione del conflitto in #Colombia e delle politiche di Paz Total del governo Petro, lo potete trovare qui. www.youtube.com/watch?v=GA8a...
Shortly after taking office, @DanielNoboaOk declared war on 22 gangs in #Ecuador. As he starts a new term, he now faces at least 37, according to @ACLEDINFO's first report on gang violence in the country.
A few other takeaways: 🧵/1 acleddata.com/2025/05/29/e...
A few other takeaways: 🧵/1 acleddata.com/2025/05/29/e...
Ecuador’s Noboa declared war on 22 gangs. In his new term, he faces many more.
acleddata.com
June 3, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Shortly after taking office, @DanielNoboaOk declared war on 22 gangs in #Ecuador. As he starts a new term, he now faces at least 37, according to @ACLEDINFO's first report on gang violence in the country.
A few other takeaways: 🧵/1 acleddata.com/2025/05/29/e...
A few other takeaways: 🧵/1 acleddata.com/2025/05/29/e...
2,600+ local officials fell victim to some form of violence in 2024, according to @ACLEDINFO's latest report.
Of these, how many took place in Latin America? And which were the main drivers of violence? /1 acleddata.com/2025/05/26/v...
Of these, how many took place in Latin America? And which were the main drivers of violence? /1 acleddata.com/2025/05/26/v...
Violence Targeting Local Officials | 2024 Annual Report
acleddata.com
June 2, 2025 at 8:31 AM
2,600+ local officials fell victim to some form of violence in 2024, according to @ACLEDINFO's latest report.
Of these, how many took place in Latin America? And which were the main drivers of violence? /1 acleddata.com/2025/05/26/v...
Of these, how many took place in Latin America? And which were the main drivers of violence? /1 acleddata.com/2025/05/26/v...
Hablé con @hectorestepa.bsky.social sobre el creciente rol de empresas privadas en las políticas de seguridad en Latinoamérica, y comenté que el protagonismo de Erick Prince responde a su deseo de posicionarse como actor clave en esa transición. www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2025-0...
¿Crisis violenta en su país? Llame usted a este oscuro personaje
Solo en enero y febrero de este año hubo en Ecuador más de 1.500 asesinatos, un 40% más que en los mismos meses de 2023, el año más violento en su historia
www.elconfidencial.com
May 22, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Hablé con @hectorestepa.bsky.social sobre el creciente rol de empresas privadas en las políticas de seguridad en Latinoamérica, y comenté que el protagonismo de Erick Prince responde a su deseo de posicionarse como actor clave en esa transición. www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2025-0...
Worrying novelties of the clash between FARC dissidents and Ecuador's military that left 11 soldiers dead:
1) It was the deadliest of the 9 clashes of this kind since 2018
2) It took place much deeper into #Ecuador than previous ones (Sucumbíos and Esmeraldas) www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9r...
1) It was the deadliest of the 9 clashes of this kind since 2018
2) It took place much deeper into #Ecuador than previous ones (Sucumbíos and Esmeraldas) www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9r...
Ecuador: once militares muertos en combate con disidentes de las FARC en la Amazonía
Doce muertos, entre ellos once militares, y un herido dejó este viernes 9 de mayo en Ecuador un enfrentamiento armado entre el Ejército ecuatoriano y los denominados Comandos de la Frontera, un grupo…
www.france24.com
May 12, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Worrying novelties of the clash between FARC dissidents and Ecuador's military that left 11 soldiers dead:
1) It was the deadliest of the 9 clashes of this kind since 2018
2) It took place much deeper into #Ecuador than previous ones (Sucumbíos and Esmeraldas) www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9r...
1) It was the deadliest of the 9 clashes of this kind since 2018
2) It took place much deeper into #Ecuador than previous ones (Sucumbíos and Esmeraldas) www.france24.com/es/am%C3%A9r...
ACLED's LatAm April overview is out:
#Colombia Gulf Clan launches its most violent wave of attacks against security forces
#Ecuador Noboa is re-elected amid unprecedentedly high levels of violence
#Jamaica Police intensify anti-gang actions amid concerns over abuses /1
acleddata.com/2025/05/08/l...
#Colombia Gulf Clan launches its most violent wave of attacks against security forces
#Ecuador Noboa is re-elected amid unprecedentedly high levels of violence
#Jamaica Police intensify anti-gang actions amid concerns over abuses /1
acleddata.com/2025/05/08/l...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: May 2025
acleddata.com
May 9, 2025 at 7:59 AM
ACLED's LatAm April overview is out:
#Colombia Gulf Clan launches its most violent wave of attacks against security forces
#Ecuador Noboa is re-elected amid unprecedentedly high levels of violence
#Jamaica Police intensify anti-gang actions amid concerns over abuses /1
acleddata.com/2025/05/08/l...
#Colombia Gulf Clan launches its most violent wave of attacks against security forces
#Ecuador Noboa is re-elected amid unprecedentedly high levels of violence
#Jamaica Police intensify anti-gang actions amid concerns over abuses /1
acleddata.com/2025/05/08/l...
This month's ACLED LATAM overview is out and feats:
#Argentina Police repression against retirees triggers discontent
#Colombia Violence surges in northeast as ELN clashes with FARC dissidents and military
#Honduras Primary elections expose political tensions /1 acleddata.com/2025/04/03/l...
#Argentina Police repression against retirees triggers discontent
#Colombia Violence surges in northeast as ELN clashes with FARC dissidents and military
#Honduras Primary elections expose political tensions /1 acleddata.com/2025/04/03/l...
Latin America and the Caribbean Overview: April 2025
acleddata.com
April 4, 2025 at 7:16 AM
This month's ACLED LATAM overview is out and feats:
#Argentina Police repression against retirees triggers discontent
#Colombia Violence surges in northeast as ELN clashes with FARC dissidents and military
#Honduras Primary elections expose political tensions /1 acleddata.com/2025/04/03/l...
#Argentina Police repression against retirees triggers discontent
#Colombia Violence surges in northeast as ELN clashes with FARC dissidents and military
#Honduras Primary elections expose political tensions /1 acleddata.com/2025/04/03/l...
I spoke to The Epoch Times about the evolution in #Colombia's conflict under Petro, which has become “hyper-localized.
"Not only are the relationships between groups open to changes all the time but also within the groups”. www.theepochtimes.com/world/colomb...
"Not only are the relationships between groups open to changes all the time but also within the groups”. www.theepochtimes.com/world/colomb...
Colombia Spirals Toward ‘Failed State’ Under Exploding Cartel Violence: Experts
The ’total peace' initiative appears to have backfired, although for now cartels and splinter groups are more focused on fighting each other than the state.
www.theepochtimes.com
March 27, 2025 at 11:43 AM
I spoke to The Epoch Times about the evolution in #Colombia's conflict under Petro, which has become “hyper-localized.
"Not only are the relationships between groups open to changes all the time but also within the groups”. www.theepochtimes.com/world/colomb...
"Not only are the relationships between groups open to changes all the time but also within the groups”. www.theepochtimes.com/world/colomb...
Polarizar el discurso y politizar las Fuerzas Armadas fue caldo de cultivo para gobiernos que violentaron derechos y procesos electorales.
“Libre sabe bien que ese fue un error. Ahora, siendo el partido en el poder, tiene una mayor responsabilidad”. #Honduras www.tunota.com/honduras-hoy...
“Libre sabe bien que ese fue un error. Ahora, siendo el partido en el poder, tiene una mayor responsabilidad”. #Honduras www.tunota.com/honduras-hoy...
Diálogo y veeduría: claves para rescatar la democracia hondureña
Dos analistas internacionales coinciden en que Honduras enfrenta una democracia frágil y proponen, como salida a la crisis, un pacto nacional que incluya diálogo abierto y veeduría electoral efectiva.
www.tunota.com
March 25, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Polarizar el discurso y politizar las Fuerzas Armadas fue caldo de cultivo para gobiernos que violentaron derechos y procesos electorales.
“Libre sabe bien que ese fue un error. Ahora, siendo el partido en el poder, tiene una mayor responsabilidad”. #Honduras www.tunota.com/honduras-hoy...
“Libre sabe bien que ese fue un error. Ahora, siendo el partido en el poder, tiene una mayor responsabilidad”. #Honduras www.tunota.com/honduras-hoy...