Michael Paarlberg
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science, Virginia Commonwealth University. Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy. Assoc. Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies. Formerly The Guardian & Latin America advisor, Bernie Sanders. 교포
michaelpaarlberg.org
michaelpaarlberg.org
Regarding Bukele’s security “miracle”: it is true that crime has dropped sharply in El Salvador over the past decade. It is not true that all, or even most of this, can be attributed to Bukele as president or to his State of Exception (thread)...
November 26, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Regarding Bukele’s security “miracle”: it is true that crime has dropped sharply in El Salvador over the past decade. It is not true that all, or even most of this, can be attributed to Bukele as president or to his State of Exception (thread)...
Helpful reminder that the US could lift sanctions and exploit Venezuela’s oil if it wanted to; in fact Maduro has offered to make the US its sole importer. Certain oil companies may hope for better deals, but if it’s just about oil, it’s unclear what more Trump could hope to get.
How Foreign Media and Analysts are Misreporting Venezuela | Caracas Chronicles
U.S. legacy media are spreading some big lies while trying to debunk and criticize Trump's discourse on Venezuela. Here's where they get it wrong
www.caracaschronicles.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Helpful reminder that the US could lift sanctions and exploit Venezuela’s oil if it wanted to; in fact Maduro has offered to make the US its sole importer. Certain oil companies may hope for better deals, but if it’s just about oil, it’s unclear what more Trump could hope to get.
From the people who say “follow the law,” “wait in line” and “come in the right way”
This is heartbreakingly cruel and hypocritical. The same admin that has redefined refugee status to cover white South Africans is now going to drown thousands of refugees already approved for their status in red tape, potentially even seeking to strip some of their status and deport them.
Trump Admin planning a rule to re-decide whether *every* refugee who entered under Biden meets their criteria for a refugee. That’s 230,000 people! And no appeals!
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
November 25, 2025 at 11:29 PM
From the people who say “follow the law,” “wait in line” and “come in the right way”
Ok this one is wild
November 25, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Ok this one is wild
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
Plausible that Trump’s policy of mass deportations will not just end a “temporary shift” among Hispanic voters but also lead to a more durable U-turn. In California, the 1994 “anti-immigrant ballot measure Prop 187 marked the death knell of the Republican Party.” calmatters.org/commentary/2...
The New Jersey governor’s race is the first significant sign that Trump’s success with Hispanic voters in 2024 may have been a temporary shift.
Via @christinezhang.bsky.social and @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
Via @christinezhang.bsky.social and @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
Maps Show How Latinos Who Shifted Right in 2024 Snapped Back Left in 2025
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Plausible that Trump’s policy of mass deportations will not just end a “temporary shift” among Hispanic voters but also lead to a more durable U-turn. In California, the 1994 “anti-immigrant ballot measure Prop 187 marked the death knell of the Republican Party.” calmatters.org/commentary/2...
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
Two weeks from now:
November 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Two weeks from now:
Despite news coverage predicting war with Venezuela any day now, with Trump’s offer of direct talks with Maduro, a more likely outcome is they end up buddies like Kim Jong Un
Scoop: Trump ready to talk with Maduro over Venezuela drug strikes
It could be a sign that U.S. missile strikes or direct military action on land are not imminent, sources tell Axios.
www.axios.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Despite news coverage predicting war with Venezuela any day now, with Trump’s offer of direct talks with Maduro, a more likely outcome is they end up buddies like Kim Jong Un
In the event of an election meltdown in Honduras, it’s within the realm of possibility that the US State Department and the Republican Congressional leadership could end up backing a Palestinian guy named Nasralla
Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Chairwoman Maria Salazar Delivers Opening Remarks at Hearing on the Fight for Free Elections in Honduras
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Chairwoman Maria Salazar delivered opening remarks at a subcommittee hearing titled "Democracy in Peril: the Fight for F...
foreignaffairs.house.gov
November 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
In the event of an election meltdown in Honduras, it’s within the realm of possibility that the US State Department and the Republican Congressional leadership could end up backing a Palestinian guy named Nasralla
This is a headline that in the US normally starts with “Florida man”
Bolsonaro says he took a soldering iron to his ankle tag out of “curiosity”
No momento da troca da tornozeleira eletrônica, Jair Bolsonaro foi questionado sobre pq ela estava tão danificada. Ele responde que, por “curiosidade”, usava o ferro de solda desde a tarde 👇🏾
November 23, 2025 at 3:14 PM
This is a headline that in the US normally starts with “Florida man”
Note that he says this a lot
November 22, 2025 at 1:53 AM
Note that he says this a lot
For the class I teach on Latin American politics, I do a vigilantism theme film arc with Cartel Land, La Sierra: Muerte en Medellin and El Secreto de sus ojos. Students go from vigilantism is good to vigilantism is bad to vigilantism reflects broken institutions and poisons the soul.
America’s Unraveling on Screen
Recent movies depict a future where anti-politics has triumphed, defined by vigilantism, insurgencies and violence
newlinesmag.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:23 PM
For the class I teach on Latin American politics, I do a vigilantism theme film arc with Cartel Land, La Sierra: Muerte en Medellin and El Secreto de sus ojos. Students go from vigilantism is good to vigilantism is bad to vigilantism reflects broken institutions and poisons the soul.
I guess he figured the problem with all the earlier plans was they were too covert
Trump Said to Authorize C.I.A. Plans for Covert Action in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:06 AM
I guess he figured the problem with all the earlier plans was they were too covert
Reposted by Michael Paarlberg
Podcast: Bukele has dealt with three US administrations. He went from conservative darling to pariah under the early Biden years’ anti-corruption agenda. Outmaneuvering the Democrats, Bukele’s bet on Trump catapulted him back to the seat of US power. beta.elfaro.net/en/a-region-...
Podcast: Bukele and Washington: Honeymoon, Breakup, and Back Together
Nayib Bukele has dealt with three U.S. administrations. He went from conservative darling to pariah under the early Biden years’ anti-corruption agenda. Outmaneuvering the Democrats, Bukele bet on Tru...
beta.elfaro.net
November 15, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Podcast: Bukele has dealt with three US administrations. He went from conservative darling to pariah under the early Biden years’ anti-corruption agenda. Outmaneuvering the Democrats, Bukele’s bet on Trump catapulted him back to the seat of US power. beta.elfaro.net/en/a-region-...
The fact that this announcement comes the same day Trump says he’s not going to war with Venezuela suggests this is a concession to Rubio, whose wings were just clipped, as talks with Maduro resume. It could give false hope to those hoping for a US-led regime change that Trump has less interest in.
November 17, 2025 at 4:01 AM
The fact that this announcement comes the same day Trump says he’s not going to war with Venezuela suggests this is a concession to Rubio, whose wings were just clipped, as talks with Maduro resume. It could give false hope to those hoping for a US-led regime change that Trump has less interest in.
It’s even dumber. “Cartel del sol” was a journalistic shorthand originally used to describe two Venezuelan generals whom the DEA accused the CIA of conspiring with to smuggle cocaine into the US, a scandal reported by 60 Minutes in “The CIA’s Cocaine” youtu.be/IF-IYdsFGrw
November 17, 2025 at 3:40 AM
It’s even dumber. “Cartel del sol” was a journalistic shorthand originally used to describe two Venezuelan generals whom the DEA accused the CIA of conspiring with to smuggle cocaine into the US, a scandal reported by 60 Minutes in “The CIA’s Cocaine” youtu.be/IF-IYdsFGrw
One has to wonder how much of a role this played in Noboa’s across-the-board loss today in Ecuador’s referendum vote, which included a proposal to reopen military bases to a US counternarcotics presence
November 17, 2025 at 3:00 AM
One has to wonder how much of a role this played in Noboa’s across-the-board loss today in Ecuador’s referendum vote, which included a proposal to reopen military bases to a US counternarcotics presence
This is correct. The embargo does nothing to undermine the Cuban government, and in fact strengthens it by giving it a convenient scapegoat. So what’s the justification for maintaining it?
The Cuban regime has created a narrative of victimhood as a smoke screen for its gross incompetence and corruption. I should know, writes Carolina Barrero. I once believed it, too.
The Cuban Embargo Does Not Exist | Journal of Democracy
The Cuban regime has created a narrative of victimhood as a smoke screen for its gross incompetence and corruption. I should know. I once believed it, too.
www.journalofdemocracy.org
November 16, 2025 at 1:07 AM
This is correct. The embargo does nothing to undermine the Cuban government, and in fact strengthens it by giving it a convenient scapegoat. So what’s the justification for maintaining it?
A good portion of interactions on here:
OP: Here’s something I find interesting (link to an article)
Anon crypto account: I don’t want to talk about that. I want to talk about crypto!
OP: I don’t share your enthusiasm for crypto
Anon: How dare you not share my niche interest! Brainwashed sheep!
OP: Here’s something I find interesting (link to an article)
Anon crypto account: I don’t want to talk about that. I want to talk about crypto!
OP: I don’t share your enthusiasm for crypto
Anon: How dare you not share my niche interest! Brainwashed sheep!
I suspect the only things you know about Bitcoin are what you’ve picked up via propaganda from mainstream media. Of course the powers that be have been saying everything negative they can think of for 16 years, it’s called fear of losing control. Sheep lap it up, I prefer thinking for myself.
November 16, 2025 at 12:43 AM
A good portion of interactions on here:
OP: Here’s something I find interesting (link to an article)
Anon crypto account: I don’t want to talk about that. I want to talk about crypto!
OP: I don’t share your enthusiasm for crypto
Anon: How dare you not share my niche interest! Brainwashed sheep!
OP: Here’s something I find interesting (link to an article)
Anon crypto account: I don’t want to talk about that. I want to talk about crypto!
OP: I don’t share your enthusiasm for crypto
Anon: How dare you not share my niche interest! Brainwashed sheep!
“Bukele made a risky bet. Once Trump is gone, and perhaps even before, what happens to Bukele's deal? Especially if this MS-13 Ranfla case comes out in court” I tell @elfaroenglish.bsky.social in their episode of Central America in Minutes on the ups and downs of US-El Salvador diplomacy.
Bukele and Washington: Honeymoon, Breakup, and Back Together
Podcast Episode · Central America in Minutes · 11/14/2025 · 26m
podcasts.apple.com
November 15, 2025 at 5:24 PM
“Bukele made a risky bet. Once Trump is gone, and perhaps even before, what happens to Bukele's deal? Especially if this MS-13 Ranfla case comes out in court” I tell @elfaroenglish.bsky.social in their episode of Central America in Minutes on the ups and downs of US-El Salvador diplomacy.
One of the positive things about this scandal is it’s a handy list of people who should never have a say in public policy ever again
November 15, 2025 at 4:32 AM
One of the positive things about this scandal is it’s a handy list of people who should never have a say in public policy ever again
I’d say the US military readiness alert level today is at EPSTEIN-3
Stakes rise as Trump deploys world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean
Expert says military action may be ‘imminent’ in Venezuela, while others suspect deployment is a negotiating tactic
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:33 PM
I’d say the US military readiness alert level today is at EPSTEIN-3
Since the official story is that the naval deployment to Venezuela is about drug trafficking and not regime change, I’d like someone to ask what the aircraft carrier is for. Does Tren de Aragua have F-16s?
November 13, 2025 at 4:32 AM
Since the official story is that the naval deployment to Venezuela is about drug trafficking and not regime change, I’d like someone to ask what the aircraft carrier is for. Does Tren de Aragua have F-16s?
Very on brand for the new pro-worker, pro-manufacturing GOP for a senator to promise mill workers he’ll save their jobs, make threats to a company, get non-committal promises they don’t follow through on, then walk away with most of the workforce fired and the union destroyed
A MAGA Senator Promised Hope for a Dying Ohio Mill. Then Reality Set In.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Very on brand for the new pro-worker, pro-manufacturing GOP for a senator to promise mill workers he’ll save their jobs, make threats to a company, get non-committal promises they don’t follow through on, then walk away with most of the workforce fired and the union destroyed
Odd timing for the Ford to arrive after Rubio and Hegseth told Congress that Trump does not plan to attack Venezuela. It appears Trump is back to dealmaking mode and Grenell is back to talks with Maduro. For now.
3 possibilities:
3 possibilities:
US aircraft carrier moves into Latin America region, officials say reut.rs/486sCAN
US aircraft carrier moves into Latin America region, officials say
The Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group has moved into the Latin America region, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday, dramatically escalating a military buildup in the Caribbean that has stoked tensions with Venezuela.
reut.rs
November 12, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Odd timing for the Ford to arrive after Rubio and Hegseth told Congress that Trump does not plan to attack Venezuela. It appears Trump is back to dealmaking mode and Grenell is back to talks with Maduro. For now.
3 possibilities:
3 possibilities:
Systematic torture of Venezuelans who were renditioned to El Salvador, only 3% of whom were convicted of serious crimes, and many of who were legally in migration proceedings, per interviews by @hrw.org & @cristosal.bsky.social. CECOT is Trump’s Abu Ghraib.
US/El Salvador: Torture of Venezuelan Deportees
The Venezuelan nationals the US government sent to El Salvador in March and April were tortured and subjected to other abuses, including sexual violence.
www.hrw.org
November 12, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Systematic torture of Venezuelans who were renditioned to El Salvador, only 3% of whom were convicted of serious crimes, and many of who were legally in migration proceedings, per interviews by @hrw.org & @cristosal.bsky.social. CECOT is Trump’s Abu Ghraib.