Tiziano Breda
@tizbreda.bsky.social
Senior Analyst, Latin America & the Caribbean at ACLED.
Formerly with International Crisis Group and Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Reposts do not necessarily reflect my or ACLED views.
Formerly with International Crisis Group and Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Reposts do not necessarily reflect my or ACLED views.
#Ecuador Prison massacre underscores limits of Noboa’s security strategy
#Haiti Anti-gang ops escalate in Port-au-Prince periphery amid political tensions
#Mexico Uruapan mayor's killing triggers protests and security response in Michoacán
#Venezuela Trump doubles down on quest to overthrow Maduro
#Haiti Anti-gang ops escalate in Port-au-Prince periphery amid political tensions
#Mexico Uruapan mayor's killing triggers protests and security response in Michoacán
#Venezuela Trump doubles down on quest to overthrow Maduro
December 9, 2025 at 11:47 AM
#Ecuador Prison massacre underscores limits of Noboa’s security strategy
#Haiti Anti-gang ops escalate in Port-au-Prince periphery amid political tensions
#Mexico Uruapan mayor's killing triggers protests and security response in Michoacán
#Venezuela Trump doubles down on quest to overthrow Maduro
#Haiti Anti-gang ops escalate in Port-au-Prince periphery amid political tensions
#Mexico Uruapan mayor's killing triggers protests and security response in Michoacán
#Venezuela Trump doubles down on quest to overthrow Maduro
#Ecuador Arrest of Los Choneros leader triggers deadly dispute in Manabí
#Haiti Police push back Viv Ansanm in Kenscoff but gangs expand in Artibonite
#Peru Artisanal miners mobilize, demanding formalization
#T&T Govt imposes state of emergency amid suspects of planned attacks against officials
#Haiti Police push back Viv Ansanm in Kenscoff but gangs expand in Artibonite
#Peru Artisanal miners mobilize, demanding formalization
#T&T Govt imposes state of emergency amid suspects of planned attacks against officials
August 11, 2025 at 10:55 AM
90% of these protests have involved roadblocks, which have exacerbated a dire economic situation, increasing pressure on the government to dismantle them.
In June, clashes between Evo supporters and security forces/counterprotesters left eight people dead and dozens injured. /4
In June, clashes between Evo supporters and security forces/counterprotesters left eight people dead and dozens injured. /4
August 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
90% of these protests have involved roadblocks, which have exacerbated a dire economic situation, increasing pressure on the government to dismantle them.
In June, clashes between Evo supporters and security forces/counterprotesters left eight people dead and dozens injured. /4
In June, clashes between Evo supporters and security forces/counterprotesters left eight people dead and dozens injured. /4
While some workers union and mining cooperatives have abandoned Morales, he has remained with a "reduced but radicalized" support base, mostly composed of farmers and coca growers, concentrated in the Cochabamba departments, where 60% of pro-Morales demonstrations have occured. /3
August 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
While some workers union and mining cooperatives have abandoned Morales, he has remained with a "reduced but radicalized" support base, mostly composed of farmers and coca growers, concentrated in the Cochabamba departments, where 60% of pro-Morales demonstrations have occured. /3
A dispute between former President Morales and current President Luis Arce for the control of the MAS party has become a major driver of instability in the country since late 2023, leading to the implosion of the party that has been in power in the past two decades. /2
August 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
A dispute between former President Morales and current President Luis Arce for the control of the MAS party has become a major driver of instability in the country since late 2023, leading to the implosion of the party that has been in power in the past two decades. /2
#Colombia Shooting of presidential hopeful reignites fear of political violence
#Haiti Viv Ansanm coalition expands its offensive outside Port-au-Prince
#Mexico Violence against political figures increases in Michoacán and Veracruz
#Panama Protests against pension reform intensify in Bocas del Toro
#Haiti Viv Ansanm coalition expands its offensive outside Port-au-Prince
#Mexico Violence against political figures increases in Michoacán and Veracruz
#Panama Protests against pension reform intensify in Bocas del Toro
July 4, 2025 at 4:22 PM
3) Y la explosión de la violencia en 2025 como resultado de la fragmentación que han experimentado los grupos criminales desde la declaración de conflicto armado interno el año pasado:
- 37 grupos criminales registrados en 2024, de 24 en 2023
- 1,300+ eventos de violencia hasta ahora en 2025.
- 37 grupos criminales registrados en 2024, de 24 en 2023
- 1,300+ eventos de violencia hasta ahora en 2025.
June 13, 2025 at 9:48 AM
3) Y la explosión de la violencia en 2025 como resultado de la fragmentación que han experimentado los grupos criminales desde la declaración de conflicto armado interno el año pasado:
- 37 grupos criminales registrados en 2024, de 24 en 2023
- 1,300+ eventos de violencia hasta ahora en 2025.
- 37 grupos criminales registrados en 2024, de 24 en 2023
- 1,300+ eventos de violencia hasta ahora en 2025.
Noboa's militarization of public security initially reduced gang violence, but it was soon reversed, as pressure in jails and the streets contributed to triggering intra-gang disputes.
In 2025, ACLED records over 1,300 events of gang violence, over 60% more Jan-May 2024. /5
In 2025, ACLED records over 1,300 events of gang violence, over 60% more Jan-May 2024. /5
June 3, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Noboa's militarization of public security initially reduced gang violence, but it was soon reversed, as pressure in jails and the streets contributed to triggering intra-gang disputes.
In 2025, ACLED records over 1,300 events of gang violence, over 60% more Jan-May 2024. /5
In 2025, ACLED records over 1,300 events of gang violence, over 60% more Jan-May 2024. /5
Gang violence has also become intrinsically intertwined with politics and elections, as illustrated by the killing presidential candidate Villavicencio in 2023.
Since then, however, violence against political figures has become chronic, mirroring the security deterioration. /4
Since then, however, violence against political figures has become chronic, mirroring the security deterioration. /4
June 3, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Gang violence has also become intrinsically intertwined with politics and elections, as illustrated by the killing presidential candidate Villavicencio in 2023.
Since then, however, violence against political figures has become chronic, mirroring the security deterioration. /4
Since then, however, violence against political figures has become chronic, mirroring the security deterioration. /4
While 80% of recorded gang violence takes place in coastal provinces, gangs have expanded extortion, smuggling, and gold mining activities, and are now present in two-thirds of the country's 221 municipalities. /3
June 3, 2025 at 4:28 PM
While 80% of recorded gang violence takes place in coastal provinces, gangs have expanded extortion, smuggling, and gold mining activities, and are now present in two-thirds of the country's 221 municipalities. /3
Ecuador is not new to gangs, but domestic and international factors have made local criminal groups breed, while tensions over the management of illicit activities made internecine violence skyrocket: in 2024 Ecuador recorded more violent events than much bigger #Colombia. /2
June 3, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Ecuador is not new to gangs, but domestic and international factors have made local criminal groups breed, while tensions over the management of illicit activities made internecine violence skyrocket: in 2024 Ecuador recorded more violent events than much bigger #Colombia. /2
In #Ecuador, violence seemed to owe less to political competition and more to organized crime dynamics, reflecting an overall deterioration of the country’s security situation, as almost 90% of these violent events took place in the provinces most affected by gang competition. /4
June 2, 2025 at 8:31 AM
In #Ecuador, violence seemed to owe less to political competition and more to organized crime dynamics, reflecting an overall deterioration of the country’s security situation, as almost 90% of these violent events took place in the provinces most affected by gang competition. /4
Violence in Mexico, as outlined by Sandra Pellegrini, was catalysed by the electoral process, where criminal groups sought to influence the process by targeting officials hindering their interests. But competition between local political contenders also fueled violence. /3
June 2, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Violence in Mexico, as outlined by Sandra Pellegrini, was catalysed by the electoral process, where criminal groups sought to influence the process by targeting officials hindering their interests. But competition between local political contenders also fueled violence. /3
#Haiti Gangs' offensive drives uptick of violence in Centre
#Mexico Security forces’ operations prompt cartel retaliations in Michoacán and Baja California Sur
#Panama Reform to the Social Security Fund sparks most intense wave of protests since anti-mining ones in late 2023 /END
#Mexico Security forces’ operations prompt cartel retaliations in Michoacán and Baja California Sur
#Panama Reform to the Social Security Fund sparks most intense wave of protests since anti-mining ones in late 2023 /END
May 9, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Besides social leaders, farmers, former FARC combatants, and labor groups, armed group violence has increasingly targeted political figures (258 events since Petro took office, 71% increase).
The 2023 local elections were a catalyst, but were way more violent than in 2019. /6
The 2023 local elections were a catalyst, but were way more violent than in 2019. /6
February 18, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Besides social leaders, farmers, former FARC combatants, and labor groups, armed group violence has increasingly targeted political figures (258 events since Petro took office, 71% increase).
The 2023 local elections were a catalyst, but were way more violent than in 2019. /6
The 2023 local elections were a catalyst, but were way more violent than in 2019. /6
Armed groups also target civilians with violence as a means to enforce territorial control and ensure illicit financial revenues.
In particular, armed groups kidnappings skyrocketed by 122% in Petro's first 2-and-a-half years. The ELN was behind one in every five abductions. /5
In particular, armed groups kidnappings skyrocketed by 122% in Petro's first 2-and-a-half years. The ELN was behind one in every five abductions. /5
February 18, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Armed groups also target civilians with violence as a means to enforce territorial control and ensure illicit financial revenues.
In particular, armed groups kidnappings skyrocketed by 122% in Petro's first 2-and-a-half years. The ELN was behind one in every five abductions. /5
In particular, armed groups kidnappings skyrocketed by 122% in Petro's first 2-and-a-half years. The ELN was behind one in every five abductions. /5
Not only are civilians more exposed to turf wars, but where these are fiercer, armed groups often target civilians as a means to attack rivals, as displayed by recent events in Catatumbo.
As a result, civilian targeting went up in Chocó, Arauca, Antioquia and Putumayo in 2024. /4
As a result, civilian targeting went up in Chocó, Arauca, Antioquia and Putumayo in 2024. /4
February 18, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Not only are civilians more exposed to turf wars, but where these are fiercer, armed groups often target civilians as a means to attack rivals, as displayed by recent events in Catatumbo.
As a result, civilian targeting went up in Chocó, Arauca, Antioquia and Putumayo in 2024. /4
As a result, civilian targeting went up in Chocó, Arauca, Antioquia and Putumayo in 2024. /4
However, 26.7 million Colombians were exposed to armed groups' fightings during the first 30 months of Petro, 24% more than the previous period. They also increasingly fell victims of forced recruitment and mobility restrictions in the context of these wars. /3
February 18, 2025 at 11:36 AM
However, 26.7 million Colombians were exposed to armed groups' fightings during the first 30 months of Petro, 24% more than the previous period. They also increasingly fell victims of forced recruitment and mobility restrictions in the context of these wars. /3