Tim Riffe
@timriffe1.bsky.social
1.8K followers 1.1K following 86 posts
danger, demography, and data
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timriffe1.bsky.social
New paper on how to calculate a multistate death distribution! What's that, you ask? Usually, we plot a death distribution by age at death. But age at death is the sum of our time spent in different states. If we split time between being healthy or not, then the distribution is multistate (1/3)
a multistate death distribution. This plot has healthy years in x, unhealthy years in y, and x+y (descending diagonals) is age at death. We display the death distribution as filled contours. The health measure in question is ADLs, which has a high mortality penalty, so the distribution mostly hugs the lower axis. state expectancies and total life expectancy converge on a point. SHARE data, females, ADL, 2015-17.
Reposted by Tim Riffe
ophastings.bsky.social
The GSS asked the same people about their childhood income rank three different times. 56% changed their answer, even though what was trying to be measured couldn’t change! We dig into this in a new article at @socialindicators.bsky.social. 



doi.org/10.1007/s112...

🧵👇 (1/5)
Growing up Different(ly than Last Time We Asked): Social Status and Changing Reports of Childhood Income Rank - Social Indicators Research
How we remember our past can be shaped by the realities of our present. This study examines how changes to present circumstances influence retrospective reports of family income rank at age 16. While retrospective survey data can be used to assess the long-term effects of childhood conditions, present-day circumstances may “anchor” memories, causing shifts in how individuals recall and report past experiences. Using panel data from the 2006–2014 General Social Surveys (8,602 observations from 2,883 individuals in the United States), we analyze how changes in objective and subjective indicators of current social status—income, financial satisfaction, and perceived income relative to others—are associated with changes in reports of childhood income rank, and how this varies by sex and race/ethnicity. Fixed-effects models reveal no significant association between changes in income and in childhood income rank. However, changes in subjective measures of social status show contrasting effects, as increases in current financial satisfaction are associated with decreases in childhood income rank, but increases in current perceived relative income are associated with increases in childhood income rank. We argue these opposing effects follow from theories of anchoring in recall bias. We further find these effects are stronger among males but are consistent across racial/ethnic groups. This demographic heterogeneity suggests that recall bias is not evenly distributed across the population and has important implications for how different groups perceive their own pasts. Our findings further highlight the malleability of retrospective perceptions and their sensitivity to current social conditions, offering methodological insights into survey reliability and recall bias.
doi.org
timriffe1.bsky.social
He’s got a linked-in profile, you could try that
timriffe1.bsky.social
Took a bit longer but windows version now on CRAN
timriffe1.bsky.social
HMDHFDplus updated to account for minor web design update of @hmdatabase.bsky.social . If you started experiencing funny behavior when using the package to read HMD data from the web, just reinstall; it's already on CRAN. #rstats #demography #mortality
Reposted by Tim Riffe
readdemography.bsky.social
In “Single Parenthood, Gender & Mortality” @minekuhn.bsky.social @angelacar.bsky.social J Caputo, L Ahrenfeldt & @annaoksuzyan.bsky.social examine “variations in mortality by pathway into single p'hood" & other factors. @sociologytiu.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
Reposted by Tim Riffe
reves-network.bsky.social
📢 Papers from #REVES2026 with a focus on new methods for analyzing healthy life expectancy and inequalities will be great candidates for the @genus.bsky.social Healthy Life Expectancy collection by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social & @timriffe1.bsky.social !
🔗 tinyurl.com/HLEgenus
📌01/06/2026
#demography
Reposted by Tim Riffe
warren.senate.gov
Let's be clear: no one should be taking medical advice from the man who told Americans to inject bleach.

To moms worried about the Tylenol they took while pregnant: you deserve better than being RFK Jr's scapegoat.

And to the autism community: you are loved exactly as you are.
Reposted by Tim Riffe
daniellaurison.bsky.social
Pretty clear illustration of "you may as well stand up for what you believe in, they're coming for you anyway."
taniel.bsky.social
So, a university president fired a professor because they taught a course that discussed there being more than two genders, and now the university president is being fired for not having fired the professor quickly enough, is where we're at. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/u...
Texas A&M President to Step Down After Controversy Over ‘Gender Ideology’
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Tim Riffe
eaps.bsky.social
📢 Call for submissions for European Population Conference 2026 (3–6 June, Bologna) is open! Organized by EAPS & University of Bologna.

💡 More information: www.eaps.nl/epc/european...
EAPS.nl | European Population Conference 2026
EAPS.nl
www.eaps.nl
Reposted by Tim Riffe
luckytran.com
IT'S OFFICIAL: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York State, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and New York City have formed the Northeast Public Health Collaborative.

The collaborative will issue their own vaccine recommendations and coordinate public health efforts.
Map of Regional Public Health Coalitions

Northeast Public Health Collaborative (Blue)

West Coast Health Alliance (Yellow)
Reposted by Tim Riffe
wrigleyfield.bsky.social
Does anyone want to be formal demography reading buddies? I have a bunch of areas I’m trying to read up on and I feel like I’d get it faster if I had someone to explain results to and ask questions of.
Reposted by Tim Riffe
parkali.bsky.social
A blog from me on why social science infrastructures matter. I talk about the value of social science data collections & data services (especially @ukdsimpact.bsky.social), current opportunities and challenges (including AI, the growth of TREs & training), & what we're doing about them at ESRC.
ukdsimpact.bsky.social
🎉New on the Data Impact blog🎉

Professor Alison Park (@parkali.bsky.social), from ESRC, discusses the importance of UK social science data infrastructures and outlines some of the opportunities and challenges they face in our new Data Impact blog.

blog.ukdataservice.ac.uk/park-esrc-da...
City skyline from above at night
Reposted by Tim Riffe
vdilego.bsky.social
Recalling that COVID still ranks in the top 10 causes of death in the US since 2023, while it ranked third in 2021-2022! So it had not only an important impact during the height of the pandemic, but it also remained a leading cause of death overall thereafter.
drjenndowd.bsky.social
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear:

➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.

➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.

jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
How many people died of COVID?
We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths
jenndowd.substack.com
Reposted by Tim Riffe
drjenndowd.bsky.social
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear:

➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19.

➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted.

jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
How many people died of COVID?
We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths
jenndowd.substack.com
Reposted by Tim Riffe
clscohorts.bsky.social
We're excited to announce CLS will lead the first new nationally representative UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years. Generation New Era will follow the lives of more than 30,000 babies born in 2026, during their early years, and potentially beyond. Read more: bit.ly/4gfttBP
Photo of three babies lying on the carpet Graphic describing some of the key features of the study: 30,000 babies will take part, it is the first new UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years, babies will be age 9-11 months at the first survey, and 3-4 years at the second survey. Graphic showing sample sizes in the four UK countries: 16,300 babies in England, 5,000 babies in Scotland, 4,500 babies in Wales, and 4,200 babies in Northern Ireland. Graphic describing some of the elements of the study. This includes boosts for ethnic minority and low income families, interviews with fathers as well as mothers, consent to linkage to administrative data.
Reposted by Tim Riffe
karenguzzo.bsky.social
The @uncpopcenter.bsky.social is recruiting for a postdoc for our Population Science Training Program. Applications are due November 17th, with a start date of August 2026. For more info about the program, visit www.cpc.unc.edu/training/pop...

To apply, visit unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/306...
a logo for the carolina tar heels with a ram head
ALT: a logo for the carolina tar heels with a ram head
media.tenor.com
Reposted by Tim Riffe
marshfamilysongs.bsky.social
Here's a short happy-go-lucky 🎶 parody about the way that
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now collapsing American healthcare - based off #PaulSimon's toe-tapping "Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard".

youtu.be/FDiXrd-R68U

It's called: "Measles and Polio Down in the Schoolyard."
"Measles and Polio Down in the Schoolyard" - Marsh Family parody of Paul Simon "Me and Julio" on RFK
YouTube video by Marsh Family
youtu.be
Reposted by Tim Riffe
mpidr.bsky.social
🚨Job Offer🚨PhD Student Position
The @lshtm.bsky.social, in partnership with the @mpidr.bsky.social is opening an 18-month Research Assistant position, with the successful candidate embarking on a PhD program at LSHTM.
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...
@ezagheni.bsky.social #phd #jobs #demography
Reposted by Tim Riffe