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Reposted by Ted Schwaba

Nathan Bell @nateyates.bsky.social · 21h

When do machine learning models actually outperform standard polygenic scores? 🤔

In our new preprint, we benchmark how non-additive genetic effects (i.e, dominance deviations) shape polygenic prediction across simulated and UK Biobank traits.

👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

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Benchmarking non-additive genetic effects on polygenic prediction and machine learning-based approaches

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are widely used to translate genome-wide association study (GWAS) findings into tools for genetic risk prediction. Most current approaches assume additive effects, yet the cont...

www.medrxiv.org

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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · Jul 8

This is a fairly technical but highly relevant paper on how we can model complex systems at various levels of detail without losing causal content. Think gas: instead of tracking every molecule, we can focus on big-picture properties like temperature and pressure. www.auai.org/uai2017/proc...

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The Association for Research in Personality @arpposts.bsky.social · 1d

@jfealy.bsky.social, Joesphine Fealy, investigated how genetics were associated with personality trait develolent after stressful life events. Find out more in our upcoming newsletter and on our Instagram!

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George Conway 🇺🇸🚫👑🐸 @gtconway.bsky.social · 1d

You can find a #NoKingsDay event near you at nokings.org/#map.

Join your neighbors and friends. Stand up for what actually makes America great.

This Saturday. Everywhere.

Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 1d

A notice from @ofthebraveusa.bsky.social.

Will run in newspapers across the nation.

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Kathryn Paige Harden @kph3k.bsky.social · 1d

New from @ent3c.bsky.social in The Atlantic --

7 years (!) after Charles Murray made a bet with us that we'd "understand IQ genetically" by 2025, Eric describes how far we still are--and might always be--from that goal

www.theatlantic.com/science/2025...

Your Genes Are Simply Not Enough to Explain How Smart You Are

Seven years ago, I took a bet with Charles Murray about whether we’d basically understand the genetics of intelligence by now.

www.theatlantic.com

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 5d

I was wondering why this photo felt familiar and then I realized my profile pic is just me cosplaying as this flower

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 12d

Trump's "university compact" is blatantly transphobic and deeply evil stuff. Any university that agrees to this kneels to fascism.

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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 12d

% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society

22% in 2022
47% in 2025

No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.

Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society and sports

Today, 43% of U.S. adults say the fact that sports betting is now legal in much of the country is a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022.

www.pewresearch.org

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Elliot Tucker-Drob @tuckerdrob.bsky.social · 13d

Non-paywalled link to my commentary on @vw1234.bsky.social and colleagues new paper in @nature.com rdcu.be/eI2NG

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 15d

Truly, one of the most heartening findings I've ever encountered!

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 15d

...And here's conscientiousness. Sorry, conscientiousness. Bluesky only allows 4 images per post.

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 15d

If you're teaching about lifespan personality development, and you want to include Bleidorn + colleagues (2022) meta-analysis, I made some prettier plots than the ones in our paper. (Y axis is cohen's d)

(Alternately, if you've never read our paper, check out these plots!)

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 21d

Calvinball rule is an amazing term!

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · 25d

2015: the CLPM is misspecified, it doesn't account for stable traits, use the RI-CLPM!

2025: the RI-CLPM is misspecified, it doesn't account for linear decay over time, use the ARTS!

(But actually, given how stable everything is, maybe just don't estimate cross-lagged models in adults)

Rich Lucas @richlucas.bsky.social · 25d

It turns out it's very common. Here are the plots of stability over increasingly long lags for about 400 variables from a large panel study. For anything less than almost perfect short-term stability, stability coefficients should reach an asymptote long before 22 years; very few do [10/x]

Actual stability coefficients across increasingly long lags for over 400 variables. Most stabilities decline slowly without ever reaching an asymptote.

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René Mõttus @renemottus.bsky.social · 26d

Submissions are now open for 22nd European Conference on Personality (Edinburgh, 2026); deadline 7/12/25.
Keynote speakers and pre-conference workshops have also been confirmed.
www.ecp22edinburgh.org/submission

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The Onion @theonion.com · 27d

Report: You To Be Fired For Reading This Headline About Charlie Kirk

NEW YORK—Insisting your fate was sealed the moment you clicked the link, a report released Tuesday found that you will be fired for reading this headline about Charlie Kirk. “Shortly after you navigat...

theonion.com

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Abdel Abdellaoui @dr-appie.bsky.social · 28d

The largest study on late life virginity, based on >400k individuals, out now in @pnas.org

Open access link: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Shoutout to shared first author @laurawesseldijk.bsky.social ❤️

Thread below 👇🏽

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Michael W. Kraus @mwkraus.bsky.social · 28d

I wrote a little note on awards for diversity and science:
mwkraus.medium.com/a-note-on-aw...

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Sjoerd van Alten @sjoerdalten.bsky.social · 29d

Proud to share our new @nber working paper on how genetics shape the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status in the Netherlands. 🧵(1/8)

www.nber.org/papers/w34208

A Chip Off the Old Block? Genetics and the Intergenerational Transmission of Socioeconomic Status

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · Sep 12

New to me! Thank you!

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · Sep 12

Thank you!!

Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · Sep 12

Thanks! I've heard his name a million times, but never actually checked him out, so I think this has convinced me to finally give in (and probably enjoy!)

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Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · Sep 12

Looking for recs on a novel (any genre) where, when you read it, you kept thinking "dang this author has a LOT of fun ideas"

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Adam L @lauretig.bsky.social · Sep 10

Simon Wood, the GOAT of generalized additive models & creator of the mgcv #rstats package, has an Annual Review of Statistics essay on GAMs, available open access #statssky #mlsky

www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

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Michael Inzlicht @minzlicht.bsky.social · Sep 10

Major new paper by finds implicit measures like the IAT are no better than asking people directly about their biases. After decades of avoiding self-reports, turns out our sophisticated replacement tools work no better than what we abandoned. New post!

The Great Implicit Bias Bamboozle

Where were you when you first learned about implicit bias?

open.substack.com

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