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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier
@tbonier.bsky.social
25K followers 83 following 170 posts
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC https://tombonier.substack.com/
tombonier.substack.com
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 23h
We'll keep an eye on this. It's possible that if there was a surge, those voters registered as unaffiliated, not GOP, as many did in 2024. We'll see.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 23h
There was a small GOP bump in OK, one of the most GOP and conservative states. The week prior to Kirk's death new registrants were +26R, then +28R the week following his death, and the next week +30R.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 23h
Many states have not produced updated files that cover that time period, so the sample is limited. One state that has updated is PA. The week before Kirk's death, new registrants were +15D. The week after his death they were +20D, and +18D the week after that.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 23h
In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Jul 11
Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
Why We Built the Media Buying Platform
In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...
www.linkedin.com
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Jun 28
I'll be on with Edwin shortly!
eisendrath.net
Edwin Eisendrath @eisendrath.net · Jun 28
Today on WCPT820AM & @heartlandsignal.bsky.social: we'll unpack this jawdropping week with my incredible guests:

+ @swingleft.bsky.social
+ @davidpepperoh.bsky.social
+ @nicholsuprising.bsky.social
+ @tbonier.bsky.social

🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s
edwin eisendrath the big picture WCPT and heartland signal 1-4pm CT every Saturday
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Jun 21
In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Jun 20
I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?
LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis
Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT
open.substack.com
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Reposted by Tom Bonier
simonwdc.bsky.social
Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · Apr 22
Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.
gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Apr 22
New Gallup poll finds an all-time high in the share of Americans saying their financial situation is “getting worse”
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Reposted by Tom Bonier
gregsargent.bsky.social
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · Apr 17
Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.

First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
This is all happening while white voters are registering at a lower rate. So how is GOP registration share increasing? They are doing somewhat better with Hispanic and AAPI voters than they did in the past, while Dem share is dropping (unaffiliated is increasing the most).
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
As a cautionary note, we also have data from NC that is somewhat recent (through Feb 21st). In this case, looking at just the period since Trump took office, Republicans continue to outregister Dems.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
I will add - the slides above were looking at new reg in VA since Election Day last year. In this case, I limited it to just since Trump took office. You will see that modeled Dem registration has spiked under Trump. We'll see if this continues, and is replicated elsewhere.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
Finally, by modeled partisanship (VA doesn't have party reg), the models think the new registrants are much less GOP than they were in the past two gov election years in VA. These are models, so take it with a grain of salt.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
If we look at race/ethnicity, the new registrants in VA are also less white. The same notion mentioned above applies - Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, but seems to have lost ground with them as president.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
The new registrants are also younger than in years past. Of course, these demographic analyses have become more fraught in that Republicans have made inroads with young voters, esp young men and voters of color. But recent polls show these voters abandoning Trump of late.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
First, if you look at where the new registrants are coming from compared to the same time period in 2021 and 2017, they are much more heavily from urban areas. Over the past 4 years nationally, rural areas have been overperforming, so this is a noticeable change.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
I've been waiting for this, since VA has elections this year, and likely has more people immediately impacted by the Musk/DOGE cuts than any other state. What we're seeing in quite interesting.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 19
I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 18
Amen!
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 18
As an aside, I've coached my daughter's sports teams for the past 11 years. I've been a commissioner for a softball program covering hundreds of athletes each season. Not once has the issue of trans girls been raised as an issue.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 18
Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.
jael.bsky.social
jael holzman @jael.bsky.social · Mar 17
Democratic strategist James Carville did an interview with Fox News to encourage more lawmakers in his party to come out against trans people in sports and agree with Gavin Newsom

"I think that's a view that most Americans have”

www.foxnews.com/media/james-...
James Carville predicts more Dems will follow Gavin Newsom in speaking out on trans athletes in women's sports
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted other Democrats will follow Gavin Newsom and oppose trans athletes in women's sports.
www.foxnews.com
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 17
True, both this year and last year they mentioned that he lives within 1km from the finish a lot in the last stage.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 16
Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
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tbonier.bsky.social
Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · Mar 8
Deregulation: so people can die for cheaper eggs
atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Mar 7
Rollins: "The Biden team basically depopulated about 150m egg laying hens last year, which is the protocol. We're looking at the protocol now to see how to tweak it so that hopefully we don't have to do that moving forward. But we rolled out a 5 point plan a week ago. It includes deregulation."
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