Tangotiger
@tangotiger.com
MLBAM Senior Data Architect
Website http://www.tangotiger.com
Co-author of The Book, with limited free access from
- Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger
- Google Books: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger2
Website http://www.tangotiger.com
Co-author of The Book, with limited free access from
- Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger
- Google Books: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger2
December 6, 2025 at 12:48 AM
On Even-Strength
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.2 - 3.8 With McDavid
2.4 - 3.3 Without
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.8 - 3.1 With Draisaitl
2.1 - 3.7 Without
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Is McDavid playing with worst players on team? Or are goalies allowing more goals/shot "coincidentally" when McJ is on ice?
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.2 - 3.8 With McDavid
2.4 - 3.3 Without
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.8 - 3.1 With Draisaitl
2.1 - 3.7 Without
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Is McDavid playing with worst players on team? Or are goalies allowing more goals/shot "coincidentally" when McJ is on ice?
December 5, 2025 at 3:17 PM
On Even-Strength
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.2 - 3.8 With McDavid
2.4 - 3.3 Without
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.8 - 3.1 With Draisaitl
2.1 - 3.7 Without
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Is McDavid playing with worst players on team? Or are goalies allowing more goals/shot "coincidentally" when McJ is on ice?
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.2 - 3.8 With McDavid
2.4 - 3.3 Without
Pro-rated to 60 min
3.8 - 3.1 With Draisaitl
2.1 - 3.7 Without
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Is McDavid playing with worst players on team? Or are goalies allowing more goals/shot "coincidentally" when McJ is on ice?
On Even-Strength
Jake Evans
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
9-25 (318) With
58-51 (1022) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
1.7 - 4.7 With
3.4 - 3.0 Without
That's a pretty abysmal on-ice record
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Jake Evans
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
9-25 (318) With
58-51 (1022) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
1.7 - 4.7 With
3.4 - 3.0 Without
That's a pretty abysmal on-ice record
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
December 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
On Even-Strength
Jake Evans
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
9-25 (318) With
58-51 (1022) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
1.7 - 4.7 With
3.4 - 3.0 Without
That's a pretty abysmal on-ice record
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
Jake Evans
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
9-25 (318) With
58-51 (1022) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
1.7 - 4.7 With
3.4 - 3.0 Without
That's a pretty abysmal on-ice record
Source: @naturalstattrick.com
On Even-Strength
Esa Lindell
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-16 (525) With
40-40 (896) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 1.8 With
2.7 - 2.7 Without
When "without" has goals scored = allowed, you know rest-of-team is equal to rest-of-league
So that 32-16 record can stand unadjusted
Esa Lindell
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-16 (525) With
40-40 (896) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 1.8 With
2.7 - 2.7 Without
When "without" has goals scored = allowed, you know rest-of-team is equal to rest-of-league
So that 32-16 record can stand unadjusted
December 5, 2025 at 2:55 PM
On Even-Strength
Esa Lindell
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-16 (525) With
40-40 (896) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 1.8 With
2.7 - 2.7 Without
When "without" has goals scored = allowed, you know rest-of-team is equal to rest-of-league
So that 32-16 record can stand unadjusted
Esa Lindell
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-16 (525) With
40-40 (896) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 1.8 With
2.7 - 2.7 Without
When "without" has goals scored = allowed, you know rest-of-team is equal to rest-of-league
So that 32-16 record can stand unadjusted
On Even-Strength
Matthew Schaefer
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-22 (515) With
37-45 (898) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 2.6 With
2.5 - 3.0 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
Matthew Schaefer
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-22 (515) With
37-45 (898) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 2.6 With
2.5 - 3.0 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:41 PM
On Even-Strength
Matthew Schaefer
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-22 (515) With
37-45 (898) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 2.6 With
2.5 - 3.0 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
Matthew Schaefer
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-22 (515) With
37-45 (898) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.7 - 2.6 With
2.5 - 3.0 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
On Even-Strength
Moritz Seider
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
36-27 (563) With
29-53 (870) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.8 - 2.9 With
2.0 - 3.7 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
Moritz Seider
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
36-27 (563) With
29-53 (870) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.8 - 2.9 With
2.0 - 3.7 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
I’m gonna say something highly provocative but I think it has merit
Moritz Seider deserves not just Norris Trophy consideration, but MVP consideration
The Wings absolutely fall apart when he’s not on the ice
Moritz Seider deserves not just Norris Trophy consideration, but MVP consideration
The Wings absolutely fall apart when he’s not on the ice
December 5, 2025 at 2:38 PM
On Even-Strength
Moritz Seider
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
36-27 (563) With
29-53 (870) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.8 - 2.9 With
2.0 - 3.7 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
Moritz Seider
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
36-27 (563) With
29-53 (870) Without
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
3.8 - 2.9 With
2.0 - 3.7 Without
source: @naturalstattrick.com
On Even-Strength
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-21 (464) With Connor Bedard
33-42 (848) Without Bedard
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
4.1 - 2.7 With
2.3 - 3.0 Without
Source: www.naturalstattrick.com
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-21 (464) With Connor Bedard
33-42 (848) Without Bedard
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
4.1 - 2.7 With
2.3 - 3.0 Without
Source: www.naturalstattrick.com
Natural Stat Trick
www.naturalstattrick.com
December 5, 2025 at 5:35 AM
On Even-Strength
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-21 (464) With Connor Bedard
33-42 (848) Without Bedard
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
4.1 - 2.7 With
2.3 - 3.0 Without
Source: www.naturalstattrick.com
Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes)
32-21 (464) With Connor Bedard
33-42 (848) Without Bedard
Pro-rated to 60 minutes
4.1 - 2.7 With
2.3 - 3.0 Without
Source: www.naturalstattrick.com
Whiff Rate by Pitch Speed, since 2008
Fastballs only
(excludes pitchers-as-batters, except Ohtani)
The averages in the Grand Total are the simple averages
There's been a turn since 2020 where the whiff rates are progressively going down (after controlling for pitch speed)
Fastballs only
(excludes pitchers-as-batters, except Ohtani)
The averages in the Grand Total are the simple averages
There's been a turn since 2020 where the whiff rates are progressively going down (after controlling for pitch speed)
December 5, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Whiff Rate by Pitch Speed, since 2008
Fastballs only
(excludes pitchers-as-batters, except Ohtani)
The averages in the Grand Total are the simple averages
There's been a turn since 2020 where the whiff rates are progressively going down (after controlling for pitch speed)
Fastballs only
(excludes pitchers-as-batters, except Ohtani)
The averages in the Grand Total are the simple averages
There's been a turn since 2020 where the whiff rates are progressively going down (after controlling for pitch speed)
Since players are going to get paid a number, evaluation comes down to... a number
Framber is forecasted at 3.7 WAR, Cease at 3.8 WAR, Suarez at 3.3 WAR. Cease/Suarez are 2 years younger.
Watch what they sign for and thatll tell you how intangibles are valued
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
Framber is forecasted at 3.7 WAR, Cease at 3.8 WAR, Suarez at 3.3 WAR. Cease/Suarez are 2 years younger.
Watch what they sign for and thatll tell you how intangibles are valued
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
December 4, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Since players are going to get paid a number, evaluation comes down to... a number
Framber is forecasted at 3.7 WAR, Cease at 3.8 WAR, Suarez at 3.3 WAR. Cease/Suarez are 2 years younger.
Watch what they sign for and thatll tell you how intangibles are valued
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
Framber is forecasted at 3.7 WAR, Cease at 3.8 WAR, Suarez at 3.3 WAR. Cease/Suarez are 2 years younger.
Watch what they sign for and thatll tell you how intangibles are valued
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
Eight fielders... you have 2 outfielders, 3 infielders and a "rover" who plays wherever they need him to cover the holes... suddenly, batters will be hitting for contact... all the problems are solved
BUT, it requires that thing that you grew up with no longer being an artificial constraint
BUT, it requires that thing that you grew up with no longer being an artificial constraint
This is a good dive into something we've been talking about for a while and which many people refuse to admit:
fielders are too good, low BA is not just hitters wanting launch angle or whatever
More hits? Make it harder on fielders.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/685...
fielders are too good, low BA is not just hitters wanting launch angle or whatever
More hits? Make it harder on fielders.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/685...
The gapper is dead: Who killed the double and triple — and what can MLB do about it?
www.nytimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Eight fielders... you have 2 outfielders, 3 infielders and a "rover" who plays wherever they need him to cover the holes... suddenly, batters will be hitting for contact... all the problems are solved
BUT, it requires that thing that you grew up with no longer being an artificial constraint
BUT, it requires that thing that you grew up with no longer being an artificial constraint
The highlighted column is the Projected WAR for 2026
@fangraphs.com Crowdsource best-fits to roughly this:
Years = 2 x (ProjWAR - 1)
AAV = 7.5 x ProjWAR
So, a 3 ProjWAR player would get 4 years, 22.5 AAV, or a 4/90 deal
Let's see how the market ACTUALLY responds
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
@fangraphs.com Crowdsource best-fits to roughly this:
Years = 2 x (ProjWAR - 1)
AAV = 7.5 x ProjWAR
So, a 3 ProjWAR player would get 4 years, 22.5 AAV, or a 4/90 deal
Let's see how the market ACTUALLY responds
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
December 1, 2025 at 2:02 AM
The highlighted column is the Projected WAR for 2026
@fangraphs.com Crowdsource best-fits to roughly this:
Years = 2 x (ProjWAR - 1)
AAV = 7.5 x ProjWAR
So, a 3 ProjWAR player would get 4 years, 22.5 AAV, or a 4/90 deal
Let's see how the market ACTUALLY responds
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
@fangraphs.com Crowdsource best-fits to roughly this:
Years = 2 x (ProjWAR - 1)
AAV = 7.5 x ProjWAR
So, a 3 ProjWAR player would get 4 years, 22.5 AAV, or a 4/90 deal
Let's see how the market ACTUALLY responds
www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...
November 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
November 29, 2025 at 3:59 PM
At first pass, I clicked 13 names... and I have no desire to remove three names
November 28, 2025 at 2:11 AM
At first pass, I clicked 13 names... and I have no desire to remove three names
Blog Post: Statcast: Move over Framing Skill, make room for Challenging Skill
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
November 25, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Blog Post: Statcast: Move over Framing Skill, make room for Challenging Skill
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
3/72 deal has similar expectation of production as 5/102.5 deal, over the first three years (and bench-level expectation for years 4+5)
So straight 1:1 deal of Semien/Nimmo essentially is both sides agreeing the two players are equivalent in talent at this moment
An old fashioned "baseball deal"
So straight 1:1 deal of Semien/Nimmo essentially is both sides agreeing the two players are equivalent in talent at this moment
An old fashioned "baseball deal"
November 24, 2025 at 3:46 PM
3/72 deal has similar expectation of production as 5/102.5 deal, over the first three years (and bench-level expectation for years 4+5)
So straight 1:1 deal of Semien/Nimmo essentially is both sides agreeing the two players are equivalent in talent at this moment
An old fashioned "baseball deal"
So straight 1:1 deal of Semien/Nimmo essentially is both sides agreeing the two players are equivalent in talent at this moment
An old fashioned "baseball deal"
Isn't this the plot to The Bad News Bears?
November 23, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Isn't this the plot to The Bad News Bears?
Sometimes it's really easy to figure out who played on the same line and if the defenders were paired up with their forwards or not
www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/19...
www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/19...
November 21, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Sometimes it's really easy to figure out who played on the same line and if the defenders were paired up with their forwards or not
www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/19...
www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/19...
The 2nd chart makes it the most clear to me that the 45 degree standard is a reasonable standard to establish if a swing was checked or not
If you can't get to 50mph, then you had no intent to swing
If you can't get to 50mph, then you had no intent to swing
#Statcast Checked Swings
We can try to create an objective definition of Checked Swing by understanding how hard batters swing
Using threshold of 50+ mph to determine a full-effort swing, we see that happens right around bat orientation being 45 degrees from the plate (aka parallel to foul line)
We can try to create an objective definition of Checked Swing by understanding how hard batters swing
Using threshold of 50+ mph to determine a full-effort swing, we see that happens right around bat orientation being 45 degrees from the plate (aka parallel to foul line)
November 20, 2025 at 4:10 AM
The 2nd chart makes it the most clear to me that the 45 degree standard is a reasonable standard to establish if a swing was checked or not
If you can't get to 50mph, then you had no intent to swing
If you can't get to 50mph, then you had no intent to swing
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
November 19, 2025 at 5:51 PM
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
ABS Challenge
Minor league batter who benefitted most from ABS Challenge, both in challenges made (flipping 11 calls, losing only 5 challenges) and in challenges against him (3 flipped, with 12 lost challenges for opponent)
Clearly, disagreement as to how top of this batter's zone is called
Clearly, disagreement as to how top of this batter's zone is called
November 15, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Minor league batter who benefitted most from ABS Challenge, both in challenges made (flipping 11 calls, losing only 5 challenges) and in challenges against him (3 flipped, with 12 lost challenges for opponent)
Clearly, disagreement as to how top of this batter's zone is called
Clearly, disagreement as to how top of this batter's zone is called
November 14, 2025 at 10:53 PM
This minor league LHH challenged an enormous # of outside pitches, almost all to no avail
Itll be exciting to see how MLB batters are going to challenge (if even allowed to by their club)
If its me: only allow it for best batter on the team, or any on a potential K/BB flip. Otherwise, catcher-only
Itll be exciting to see how MLB batters are going to challenge (if even allowed to by their club)
If its me: only allow it for best batter on the team, or any on a potential K/BB flip. Otherwise, catcher-only
November 14, 2025 at 8:56 PM
This minor league LHH challenged an enormous # of outside pitches, almost all to no avail
Itll be exciting to see how MLB batters are going to challenge (if even allowed to by their club)
If its me: only allow it for best batter on the team, or any on a potential K/BB flip. Otherwise, catcher-only
Itll be exciting to see how MLB batters are going to challenge (if even allowed to by their club)
If its me: only allow it for best batter on the team, or any on a potential K/BB flip. Otherwise, catcher-only
Using information from Cot's, we can construct a continuous function to better represent what the bonus payout could have been, had it gone out to the 20th spot
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation...
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation...
November 14, 2025 at 4:13 AM
Using information from Cot's, we can construct a continuous function to better represent what the bonus payout could have been, had it gone out to the 20th spot
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation...
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation...
November 13, 2025 at 5:10 AM