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Stephen Mullens

@srmullens.bsky.social

1.5K followers 440 following 1.5K posts

Instructional Professor of Meteorology working to spin up a MET program at U Florida. I ask smart people dumb questions. #radar #tropics #summer

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Feb 28

Mourn-scrolling: When the world absolutely used to be better, the lives of your friends and so many others were altered in the process, and you feel helpless.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 4d

Just an 85kt subgeostrophic wind off the California coast.

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

UF Geography @ufgeog.bsky.social · 6d

JOB - The Department of Geography at the University of Florida invites applications for a full-time, 12-month, non-tenure track Lecturer/Assistant Instructional Professor position in GIScience and Geographic Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) explore.jobs.ufl.edu/en-us/job/53...

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10d

Is the Atlantic season ACE ahead of average, about average, or behind average? A study in choosing what historical period to compare to, also known as lying with statistics to support what you want.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 12d

Would like a history book with a good section on the expansion of surface observations in the 1800s in North America and Europe. Anyone know of one?

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 17d

Last week, I was trying to figure out how close TCs had to get for Fujiwara to take place and ran across this image. I'm glad you made your plot to help put this plot in context, though. (Seems 500mi is a rough guide, but will depend on context.)

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 18d

Why don’t we have a horror movie that takes place in a Spirit Halloween? 🎃🦇

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19d

Oh, I know about training data. Suffice it to say that for now the HAFS still has something to say that AI doesn't for intensity.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19d

So, if AI models are good at track, but physics models are good at intensity, are we going to see a meld at some point?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 20d

At least as far as effective landfalls go, Imelda is only the third landfalling storm this year following Barry and Chantel. And it will turn out that not all I-storms are big baddies.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 22d

Looks like I may have gotten the invest wrong. 94L. oops.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 22d

In this solution, the TC doesn't strengthen because the shear is displacing the rain to the north. But the divergence in that area keeps that convective area strong as the storm approaches the coast.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 22d

This divergence is a result of both changes in jet curvature east of the trough (sub to super-geostrophic wind) and from the wind accelerating into the jet streak (4-quadrant model). In fact, this seems to be a situation where the jet streak is the greater influence of the two.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 22d

The jet stream and 93L interaction in two days will lead to a lot of upper-level divergence on the north side of the storm. These are calculations from GFS data. 🧵

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28d

Reject it if you want, it’s your website! 🤣

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28d

This might be too crazy and I haven’t tried it myself to see what it looks like: line width 1.25x the others, not dotted or dashed, alpha=0.8. Or something to that effect.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28d

But I like that the AI models are differentiated from the physics models. That kind of distinguishing between products should be more prevalent, IMO.

Good job as always!

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28d

The best track being a dotted black line makes it one of the lesser visible lines on the charts.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29d

In our current 30-year climatological period (1991-2020), the Atlantic is tied for the record low number of hurricanes to date. Neat, but nothing to scream about.

If you look at just the last 30 years (1995-2024), this is the longest the Atlantic has gone without 2 hurricanes.
smoothedweather.com

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 19

Gabrielle is giving it another go tonight.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 17

Teaching hand map analysis with upper air is just sadder than it was last year. It's harder to draw the ridge in the northwest if the data doesn't exist.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 16

No more universal experience than paying for paper towels and later realizing it’s toilet paper.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 13

Clearest graph I’ve seen about social media influence. This was cited by @gelliottmorris.com in his Strength in Numbers blog about political violence.

open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 11

Epitome of false advertising!
(They are quite good though.)

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 11

The Atlantic tropical season has gone from ahead of to behind pace for progress in number of TCs and ACE. In the heart of the season, climatology has the most slope and any lull seems dramatic. Then again, climatology has that slope for a reason, right?

We'll take the pause; season ain't over.

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · Sep 7

Chelsea Women began their season on Friday.

My season expectations: How can the expectation be anything other than at least making the Champions League final with a justifiable hope at winning it? We'll see if we can beat Barcelona.

CL-Champions League

smoothedweather.com