Sam Lillo
banner
samlillo.bsky.social
Sam Lillo
@samlillo.bsky.social
2.3K followers 150 following 380 posts
Mostly weather, dataviz, and some homesteading projects in Boulder, CO
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
While Melissa definitely made a difference, it’s interesting to see that the entire Caribbean fell pretty markedly in that animation.
Melissa is wasting no time getting reorganized back over the ocean north of Jamaica
Reposted by Sam Lillo
I recommend anybody interested in donating uses the official website launched earlier today instead of the links I posted supportjamaica.gov.jm/donateq
The circulation of Melissa rotating classically anticyclonically around the high terrain.
I see some kind of bird...
Track update. Substantial westward wobble
Just my routine plea not to compare a hurricane to the EF scale. Please.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
219-kt peak wind would be the highest wind value a dropsonde has ever recorded, ahead of 215-kt value in Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 & the 210 kt recorded just yesterday in #Hurricane #Melissa.

Still needs to be validated… so this data is preliminary.
This is hands down the most extraordinary dropsonde in Atlantic recon history.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
I'm not sure whether anyone's quantified the 3-D size of a mountainous island needed to deflect a TC's track, but if it persists, that could be a contributing factor (among others).
This is hands down the most extraordinary dropsonde in Atlantic recon history.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
Good lord. If I remember correctly, and I think it’s hard to verify unfortunately, this 219 kt/252 mph dropsonde wind gust in Melissa is easily the strongest the hurricane hunters have ever recorded
892mb pressure
185mph winds
would love to see the NE quadrant sampled before landfall, but looks like it'll be too late for that.
173kt peak flight level winds, highest measured so far in Melissa, and not even on the strongest side of the storm.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
This storm is a testament to what can happen if a hurricane doesn't blow out its eyewall too quickly. Melissa didn't seem to develop the unstable pinhole eye true of many cat 5 storms.

And of course a testament to the power of weather prediction that we can forecast these things days in advance.
#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb.

You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!
Reposted by Sam Lillo
Indeed we’ve got a dropsonde supporting 892mb, making Melissa tied with the Labor Day hurricane for the 3rd deepest Atlantic hurricane on record (behind Gilbert & Wilma) — and at this rate, headed for the deepest Atlantic hurricane at landfall on record.
Stunning wavenumber 5 pinwheel inside the eye.
This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.

rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...

#hurricanemelissa
Reposted by Sam Lillo
With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven:

Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb
Reposted by Sam Lillo
Definitive movement NNE now
Somewhat surprised not to see 155kt on the intermediate advisory. But I guess it's trivial really.
Reposted by Sam Lillo
There's the tie for the record.
Updated track map. Starting to drift bit northward - part steering, part cyclonic wobble