Raúl Duarte González
@rduartegonzalez.bsky.social
Ph.D. candidate in Political Economy & Government @Harvard | political economy + development + public finance. From 🇵🇾
https://rduarte.scholars.harvard.edu/
https://rduarte.scholars.harvard.edu/
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)
Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
November 28, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment...The three factors...are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes..."
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges,” by Chetty (@Oppinsights), Deming, and Friedman: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges*
Abstract. We use anonymized admissions data from several colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study the determinants and ca
doi.org
November 23, 2025 at 10:51 PM
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment...The three factors...are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes..."
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Also, friends, reviewers, editors -- please be willing to publish experimental estimates of the effects of anti-corruption messages on vote choice even if the "theory isn't novel" or "so and so already published on the effects of anti-corruption."
This is an impt. estimand; we need many estimates!
This is an impt. estimand; we need many estimates!
November 20, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Also, friends, reviewers, editors -- please be willing to publish experimental estimates of the effects of anti-corruption messages on vote choice even if the "theory isn't novel" or "so and so already published on the effects of anti-corruption."
This is an impt. estimand; we need many estimates!
This is an impt. estimand; we need many estimates!
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Experts say exchanges could more closely scrutinize funds that made hops between multiple unknown addresses or move through swappers.
ICIJ’s latest investigation The #CoinLaundry includes stories from scam victims around the world. Learn more: www.icij.org/investigatio...
ICIJ’s latest investigation The #CoinLaundry includes stories from scam victims around the world. Learn more: www.icij.org/investigatio...
Crypto giants moved billions linked to money launderers, drug traffickers and North Korean hackers
An ICIJ investigation traced tens of thousands of transactions and found crypto platforms awash with dirty money.
www.icij.org
November 19, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Experts say exchanges could more closely scrutinize funds that made hops between multiple unknown addresses or move through swappers.
ICIJ’s latest investigation The #CoinLaundry includes stories from scam victims around the world. Learn more: www.icij.org/investigatio...
ICIJ’s latest investigation The #CoinLaundry includes stories from scam victims around the world. Learn more: www.icij.org/investigatio...
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
ICIJ and its #CoinLaundry media partners interviewed 45 victims of crypto scams on four continents. In most cases, the funds from the alleged scammers’ wallet addresses were channeled to accounts at major exchanges, including Binance, OKX, HTX and Bybit. www.icij.org/investigatio...
November 19, 2025 at 10:25 PM
ICIJ and its #CoinLaundry media partners interviewed 45 victims of crypto scams on four continents. In most cases, the funds from the alleged scammers’ wallet addresses were channeled to accounts at major exchanges, including Binance, OKX, HTX and Bybit. www.icij.org/investigatio...
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Now forthcoming at Quarterly Journal of Economics
Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis
Available at: digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_...
(See thread below for an overview)
Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis
Available at: digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_...
(See thread below for an overview)
November 19, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Now forthcoming at Quarterly Journal of Economics
Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis
Available at: digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_...
(See thread below for an overview)
Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis
Available at: digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_...
(See thread below for an overview)
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
November 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Just got the best out-of-office message I've ever seen from a fellow academic:
"I am currently away on leave. If this is an emergency... well, I doubt it. What could possibly be an emergency in my line of work?"
"I am currently away on leave. If this is an emergency... well, I doubt it. What could possibly be an emergency in my line of work?"
November 8, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Just got the best out-of-office message I've ever seen from a fellow academic:
"I am currently away on leave. If this is an emergency... well, I doubt it. What could possibly be an emergency in my line of work?"
"I am currently away on leave. If this is an emergency... well, I doubt it. What could possibly be an emergency in my line of work?"
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
November 3, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture
www.nytimes.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now!
Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.
Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation
Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.
Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation
October 27, 2025 at 9:24 AM
📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now!
Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.
Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation
Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.
Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Sora is much closer to pulling off the prompt "someone playing a winning card in magic the gathering, close up on the board state as the card is played"
Interestingly, it makes up a card name and shows that fake card (in appropriate colors). Lots of little weirdness, but closer.
Interestingly, it makes up a card name and shows that fake card (in appropriate colors). Lots of little weirdness, but closer.
October 26, 2025 at 4:02 AM
Sora is much closer to pulling off the prompt "someone playing a winning card in magic the gathering, close up on the board state as the card is played"
Interestingly, it makes up a card name and shows that fake card (in appropriate colors). Lots of little weirdness, but closer.
Interestingly, it makes up a card name and shows that fake card (in appropriate colors). Lots of little weirdness, but closer.
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Progressives are standing behind Graham Platner despite his growing baggage. They'd rather project a populist image than adopt more moderate positions, @jonathanbchait.bsky.social argues.
What Progressives Keep Getting Wrong
Graham Platner is the perfect embodiment of the left’s strategy for returning to power. This is a problem.
bit.ly
October 26, 2025 at 5:15 AM
Progressives are standing behind Graham Platner despite his growing baggage. They'd rather project a populist image than adopt more moderate positions, @jonathanbchait.bsky.social argues.
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Now, corporate taxes are not tariffs, firms are not countries, and pass through can take different forms (his claim was very large effects on wages), but he is very much aware how incidence works and that it is unlikely to just show up in profits
October 25, 2025 at 4:44 AM
Now, corporate taxes are not tariffs, firms are not countries, and pass through can take different forms (his claim was very large effects on wages), but he is very much aware how incidence works and that it is unlikely to just show up in profits
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Hassett is neither a trade nor a political economist, but when he worked on corporate taxation his papers were showing that taxes are massively passed through rather than absorbed by suppliers
Kevin Hassett's theory of tariffs: "China has got to sell a lot of stuff to us to maintain political stability. And so if we put a tariff on their stuff, then they cut the price so that our consumer is basically still able to demand as much stuff as they need to sell to be politically stable."
October 25, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Hassett is neither a trade nor a political economist, but when he worked on corporate taxation his papers were showing that taxes are massively passed through rather than absorbed by suppliers
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
I organized an economist amicus brief in the IEEPA tariffs case the Supreme Court will soon hear.
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
October 25, 2025 at 12:27 AM
I organized an economist amicus brief in the IEEPA tariffs case the Supreme Court will soon hear.
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
PEPFAR hasn’t released new monitoring data since 2024, undermining accountability, planning, and coordination.
Ramona Godbole explains that restoring transparency is essential to preserve PEPFAR’s credibility and to avoid dangerous gaps in coverage:
https://bit.ly/3L3hawU
Ramona Godbole explains that restoring transparency is essential to preserve PEPFAR’s credibility and to avoid dangerous gaps in coverage:
https://bit.ly/3L3hawU
PEPFAR's Missing Data: Why Transparency Matters More Than Ever
The Trump administration has promised to preserve this lifesaving assistance. But since the start of the year, there has been no way to confirm if assistance is still reaching those who need it.
bit.ly
October 22, 2025 at 5:07 PM
PEPFAR hasn’t released new monitoring data since 2024, undermining accountability, planning, and coordination.
Ramona Godbole explains that restoring transparency is essential to preserve PEPFAR’s credibility and to avoid dangerous gaps in coverage:
https://bit.ly/3L3hawU
Ramona Godbole explains that restoring transparency is essential to preserve PEPFAR’s credibility and to avoid dangerous gaps in coverage:
https://bit.ly/3L3hawU
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
WashU in STL just announced, in a university-wide email, that we will NOT be signing The Compact.
This statement, I believe, exists thanks to the tremendous energy generated w/in our community by, among others, the Faculty Senate, the revived AAUP, and student journalists. I'm proud of everybody.
This statement, I believe, exists thanks to the tremendous energy generated w/in our community by, among others, the Faculty Senate, the revived AAUP, and student journalists. I'm proud of everybody.
October 22, 2025 at 4:35 PM
WashU in STL just announced, in a university-wide email, that we will NOT be signing The Compact.
This statement, I believe, exists thanks to the tremendous energy generated w/in our community by, among others, the Faculty Senate, the revived AAUP, and student journalists. I'm proud of everybody.
This statement, I believe, exists thanks to the tremendous energy generated w/in our community by, among others, the Faculty Senate, the revived AAUP, and student journalists. I'm proud of everybody.
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy,
,
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
October 22, 2025 at 4:08 PM
🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
wikipedia's data shows that AI is siphoning traffic away from the site, which is a danger to its sustainability. ironically Wikipedia is more important than ever to users who want reliable information instead of slop, and to AI companies that need it for training data www.404media.co/wikipedia-sa...
Wikipedia Says AI Is Causing a Dangerous Decline in Human Visitors
“With fewer visits to Wikipedia, fewer volunteers may grow and enrich the content, and fewer individual donors may support this work.”
www.404media.co
October 17, 2025 at 1:15 AM
wikipedia's data shows that AI is siphoning traffic away from the site, which is a danger to its sustainability. ironically Wikipedia is more important than ever to users who want reliable information instead of slop, and to AI companies that need it for training data www.404media.co/wikipedia-sa...
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Elections often look fair, but patronage and clientelism can quietly tip the scales. CID PhD Affiliate rduartegonzalez.bsky.social asks: how do we make democracy not just competitive, but truly fair? Read more about Raul's story and broader research agenda 👉 bit.ly/4qlOhwf
From Networks to the Ballot Box: How Parties Tilt the Playing Field, and Why It Matters
Growing up in Paraguay, I wondered why corruption survived the return of democracy. After a dictatorship that ended in 1989, many hoped elections would bring cleaner government and prosperity. Yet two...
bit.ly
October 16, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Elections often look fair, but patronage and clientelism can quietly tip the scales. CID PhD Affiliate rduartegonzalez.bsky.social asks: how do we make democracy not just competitive, but truly fair? Read more about Raul's story and broader research agenda 👉 bit.ly/4qlOhwf
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Honestly very impressed by Newsmax, the Washington Times, and the Washington Examiner.
They deserve credit precisely because they’re standing up for journalistic principle notwithstanding their ideological inclination.
They deserve credit precisely because they’re standing up for journalistic principle notwithstanding their ideological inclination.
October 14, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Honestly very impressed by Newsmax, the Washington Times, and the Washington Examiner.
They deserve credit precisely because they’re standing up for journalistic principle notwithstanding their ideological inclination.
They deserve credit precisely because they’re standing up for journalistic principle notwithstanding their ideological inclination.
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Si se enterasen de que el Partido Comunista de Venezuela es otro de los damnificados por la represión del chavismo, a algunos europeítos, compatriotas míos, que viven muy bien lejos de todo este horror, echando balones fuera culpando al imperialismo yanqui, a lo mejor les explotaría la cabeza.
October 10, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Si se enterasen de que el Partido Comunista de Venezuela es otro de los damnificados por la represión del chavismo, a algunos europeítos, compatriotas míos, que viven muy bien lejos de todo este horror, echando balones fuera culpando al imperialismo yanqui, a lo mejor les explotaría la cabeza.
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
... que ella y su entorno padecen la represión del régimen y que, además, permanece escondida en Venezuela a riesgo de que la arresten y le hagan lo que le hacen a los presos políticos (desaparición forzada, torturas, incomunicación, proceso sin garantías...), Machado no puede merecérselo más (6/6).
October 10, 2025 at 7:23 PM
... que ella y su entorno padecen la represión del régimen y que, además, permanece escondida en Venezuela a riesgo de que la arresten y le hagan lo que le hacen a los presos políticos (desaparición forzada, torturas, incomunicación, proceso sin garantías...), Machado no puede merecérselo más (6/6).
Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
Pero a Machado no le han dado el Nobel de la Paz por ser neoliberal; se lo han dado por su lucha contra la tiranía chavista y en favor de una transición democrática justa y pacífica en Venezuela. Y, dado su éxito al exponer el fraude electoral en las presidenciales ante el mundo entero... (5/6)
October 10, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Pero a Machado no le han dado el Nobel de la Paz por ser neoliberal; se lo han dado por su lucha contra la tiranía chavista y en favor de una transición democrática justa y pacífica en Venezuela. Y, dado su éxito al exponer el fraude electoral en las presidenciales ante el mundo entero... (5/6)