Reposted by JJ Quinn
The recent federal budget was an opportunity to ask Canada's wealthy seniors to make a few sacrifices int he name of intergenerational equity and nation-building.
We missed it. Again. And it only gets harder from here. #cdnpoli
www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/26/o...
We missed it. Again. And it only gets harder from here. #cdnpoli
www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/26/o...
We’re not ready for an aging population — and it's going to cost us
Canada's government budgets keep getting squeezed by our aging population. When are we going to do something about it?
www.nationalobserver.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:09 PM
The recent federal budget was an opportunity to ask Canada's wealthy seniors to make a few sacrifices int he name of intergenerational equity and nation-building.
We missed it. Again. And it only gets harder from here. #cdnpoli
www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/26/o...
We missed it. Again. And it only gets harder from here. #cdnpoli
www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/26/o...
Asset bubbles are ~inevitable for emerging technologies, but "good bubbles" leave behind transformative infrastructure (and a couple of huge winners):
US Railroads (CPR, PRR)
Electricity (GE, WWH)
Automobiles (Ford, GM)
SemiCon (AMD, Intel)
DotCom (Amazon, Google)
Phones (Apple, Samsung)
US Railroads (CPR, PRR)
Electricity (GE, WWH)
Automobiles (Ford, GM)
SemiCon (AMD, Intel)
DotCom (Amazon, Google)
Phones (Apple, Samsung)
Under construction - Awesome site in the making!
Dot.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Asset bubbles are ~inevitable for emerging technologies, but "good bubbles" leave behind transformative infrastructure (and a couple of huge winners):
US Railroads (CPR, PRR)
Electricity (GE, WWH)
Automobiles (Ford, GM)
SemiCon (AMD, Intel)
DotCom (Amazon, Google)
Phones (Apple, Samsung)
US Railroads (CPR, PRR)
Electricity (GE, WWH)
Automobiles (Ford, GM)
SemiCon (AMD, Intel)
DotCom (Amazon, Google)
Phones (Apple, Samsung)
Reposted by JJ Quinn
We are living in a bifurcated economy.
Lower-end consumers are struggling and an estimated 67% say they are living paycheck-to-paycheck in the United States.
The top 10% are responsible for 50% of all the spending and have benefited deeply from rising stock prices. #EconSky
Lower-end consumers are struggling and an estimated 67% say they are living paycheck-to-paycheck in the United States.
The top 10% are responsible for 50% of all the spending and have benefited deeply from rising stock prices. #EconSky
November 26, 2025 at 12:54 PM
We are living in a bifurcated economy.
Lower-end consumers are struggling and an estimated 67% say they are living paycheck-to-paycheck in the United States.
The top 10% are responsible for 50% of all the spending and have benefited deeply from rising stock prices. #EconSky
Lower-end consumers are struggling and an estimated 67% say they are living paycheck-to-paycheck in the United States.
The top 10% are responsible for 50% of all the spending and have benefited deeply from rising stock prices. #EconSky
Reposted by JJ Quinn
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
November 25, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
2025 reg season, min. 60 IP. 50 worst fWAR, along with omegaWAR (workload exp).
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
November 24, 2025 at 8:49 PM
2025 reg season, min. 60 IP. 50 worst fWAR, along with omegaWAR (workload exp).
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
The single-most underappreciated SP from the 2025 Regular Season?
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
November 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The single-most underappreciated SP from the 2025 Regular Season?
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Who were MLB's most underrated SPs in 2025?
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
November 24, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Who were MLB's most underrated SPs in 2025?
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
WAR for SPs should increase the weight of IP vs FIP.
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
November 24, 2025 at 3:02 PM
WAR for SPs should increase the weight of IP vs FIP.
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
ITEM: Kidnapping, torturing major crypto holders to extract their digital keys...
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
November 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
ITEM: Kidnapping, torturing major crypto holders to extract their digital keys...
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
Fake news. GOP has been lying about this since 2010.
November 23, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Fake news. GOP has been lying about this since 2010.
Daily Extreme Octordle #1399
5️⃣6️⃣
7️⃣8️⃣
9️⃣🔟
🕚🕛
Score: 68 Finest Kind 😇
5️⃣6️⃣
7️⃣8️⃣
9️⃣🔟
🕚🕛
Score: 68 Finest Kind 😇
November 23, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Daily Extreme Octordle #1399
5️⃣6️⃣
7️⃣8️⃣
9️⃣🔟
🕚🕛
Score: 68 Finest Kind 😇
5️⃣6️⃣
7️⃣8️⃣
9️⃣🔟
🕚🕛
Score: 68 Finest Kind 😇
Reposted by JJ Quinn
Sign at the US Military Academy at West Point:
November 23, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Sign at the US Military Academy at West Point:
GenXers and Millenials were told to get a degree, basically any subject would do.
This advice looks worse every year.
This advice looks worse every year.
November 23, 2025 at 2:41 PM
GenXers and Millenials were told to get a degree, basically any subject would do.
This advice looks worse every year.
This advice looks worse every year.
Should we start measuring consumer inflation in timeframes longer than 12 months?
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
November 23, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Should we start measuring consumer inflation in timeframes longer than 12 months?
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
Scene:
Broligarchs pouring gigabux into unreliable tech, sky-high CapEx, dodgy machinery, frequent failures, no clear path to profit, and haters screaming “bubble.”
Yet they build at breakneck speed because success will change everything.
I’m talking, of course, about the CPR in the 1800s.
Broligarchs pouring gigabux into unreliable tech, sky-high CapEx, dodgy machinery, frequent failures, no clear path to profit, and haters screaming “bubble.”
Yet they build at breakneck speed because success will change everything.
I’m talking, of course, about the CPR in the 1800s.
November 23, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Scene:
Broligarchs pouring gigabux into unreliable tech, sky-high CapEx, dodgy machinery, frequent failures, no clear path to profit, and haters screaming “bubble.”
Yet they build at breakneck speed because success will change everything.
I’m talking, of course, about the CPR in the 1800s.
Broligarchs pouring gigabux into unreliable tech, sky-high CapEx, dodgy machinery, frequent failures, no clear path to profit, and haters screaming “bubble.”
Yet they build at breakneck speed because success will change everything.
I’m talking, of course, about the CPR in the 1800s.
Reposted by JJ Quinn
AirBnB CEO calling it “vibe revenue” just 👨🍳 😘
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
November 22, 2025 at 1:11 PM
AirBnB CEO calling it “vibe revenue” just 👨🍳 😘
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
The underlying cause of every bubble - debt masquerading as financial innovation - depends on not just short financial memory & speculative neophytism, but reinventing jargon of finance, like how each generation of kids has new ways to say same things.
TIL that there are still people arguing on X about things like the Swedish response to Covid, and, in particular, if it was among the best.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
November 22, 2025 at 11:54 PM
TIL that there are still people arguing on X about things like the Swedish response to Covid, and, in particular, if it was among the best.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
All MLB stats are "flawed," but not in equal measure!
E.g., fWAR for pitchers is unfair to any (reg-szn) SP with high IP but ~avg FIP.
One workaround: square the delta-FIP (vs league avg), multiply by IP, and normalize to fWAR.
It gives guys like José Berríos more credit: 1.3 fWAR becomes 2.5:
E.g., fWAR for pitchers is unfair to any (reg-szn) SP with high IP but ~avg FIP.
One workaround: square the delta-FIP (vs league avg), multiply by IP, and normalize to fWAR.
It gives guys like José Berríos more credit: 1.3 fWAR becomes 2.5:
November 22, 2025 at 9:52 PM
All MLB stats are "flawed," but not in equal measure!
E.g., fWAR for pitchers is unfair to any (reg-szn) SP with high IP but ~avg FIP.
One workaround: square the delta-FIP (vs league avg), multiply by IP, and normalize to fWAR.
It gives guys like José Berríos more credit: 1.3 fWAR becomes 2.5:
E.g., fWAR for pitchers is unfair to any (reg-szn) SP with high IP but ~avg FIP.
One workaround: square the delta-FIP (vs league avg), multiply by IP, and normalize to fWAR.
It gives guys like José Berríos more credit: 1.3 fWAR becomes 2.5:
I'm no #Graph-ttorney, so I don't know if this counts as a #ChartCrime, but doesn't Italy have only about 1/7th USA's population? Why not use rates?
November 22, 2025 at 5:45 PM
I'm no #Graph-ttorney, so I don't know if this counts as a #ChartCrime, but doesn't Italy have only about 1/7th USA's population? Why not use rates?
Reposted by JJ Quinn
Charting number of rental units in apartment buildings in Toronto by year of construction
(This is a quick update to a similar chart I made ~2.5 years ago)
#toronto #housing #dataviz #NationalHousingDay
(This is a quick update to a similar chart I made ~2.5 years ago)
#toronto #housing #dataviz #NationalHousingDay
November 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Charting number of rental units in apartment buildings in Toronto by year of construction
(This is a quick update to a similar chart I made ~2.5 years ago)
#toronto #housing #dataviz #NationalHousingDay
(This is a quick update to a similar chart I made ~2.5 years ago)
#toronto #housing #dataviz #NationalHousingDay
Clay Holmes value, RP vs SP:
Year: IP * 0.1/FIP
2023: 63.0 * 0.1/2.65 = 2.38
2025: 165.2 * 0.1/4.11 = 4.20
An average SP is worth far more than an excellent RP.
H/T to Will Harris.
Year: IP * 0.1/FIP
2023: 63.0 * 0.1/2.65 = 2.38
2025: 165.2 * 0.1/4.11 = 4.20
An average SP is worth far more than an excellent RP.
H/T to Will Harris.
November 22, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Clay Holmes value, RP vs SP:
Year: IP * 0.1/FIP
2023: 63.0 * 0.1/2.65 = 2.38
2025: 165.2 * 0.1/4.11 = 4.20
An average SP is worth far more than an excellent RP.
H/T to Will Harris.
Year: IP * 0.1/FIP
2023: 63.0 * 0.1/2.65 = 2.38
2025: 165.2 * 0.1/4.11 = 4.20
An average SP is worth far more than an excellent RP.
H/T to Will Harris.
Such Citizens. So United.
November 22, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Such Citizens. So United.
Wordle 1,616 5/6
⬜🟩🟩⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Ouch. 24 secs.
⬜🟩🟩⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Ouch. 24 secs.
November 22, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Wordle 1,616 5/6
⬜🟩🟩⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Ouch. 24 secs.
⬜🟩🟩⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Ouch. 24 secs.
Reposted by JJ Quinn
BREAKING: Republicans pass bill to condemn Socialism, 285-98. 86 House Democrats voted yes, further demonstrating that we have two right-wing parties in America. 2 members voted Present, and 47 members of the House did not vote (20 R and 27 D).
November 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
BREAKING: Republicans pass bill to condemn Socialism, 285-98. 86 House Democrats voted yes, further demonstrating that we have two right-wing parties in America. 2 members voted Present, and 47 members of the House did not vote (20 R and 27 D).