Holy Moly--like twins!
November 26, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Holy Moly--like twins!
Arraez was 68th in OPS
November 26, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Arraez was 68th in OPS
Yep, Utley will get a +
November 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yep, Utley will get a +
The private beaches are ok.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 AM
The private beaches are ok.
Most underrated RP in 2025? Spencer Bivens, fWAR = 0.4.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
November 25, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Most underrated RP in 2025? Spencer Bivens, fWAR = 0.4.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
November 25, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
HOF is a joke. Barry Bonds posted ~60 WAR pre-juice.
November 25, 2025 at 12:21 AM
HOF is a joke. Barry Bonds posted ~60 WAR pre-juice.
This is serious stuff for guys like Carlos Vargas, especially with no MiLB options left.
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
November 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM
This is serious stuff for guys like Carlos Vargas, especially with no MiLB options left.
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
Who is "Mr. Zero WAR"?
Antonio Senzatela (COL).
At least with 60+ IP.
Antonio Senzatela (COL).
At least with 60+ IP.
November 24, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Who is "Mr. Zero WAR"?
Antonio Senzatela (COL).
At least with 60+ IP.
Antonio Senzatela (COL).
At least with 60+ IP.
2025 reg season, min. 60 IP. 50 worst fWAR, along with omegaWAR (workload exp).
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
November 24, 2025 at 8:49 PM
2025 reg season, min. 60 IP. 50 worst fWAR, along with omegaWAR (workload exp).
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
Red are pitchers that were even worse than fWAR-- sorry Francis!
Yellow were at least .5 WAR better than base WAR suggests.
Green was at least 1.0 WAR better, including Vargas, Hilton, Hill, Bachar, Phillips, and Lee.
The single-most underappreciated SP from the 2025 Regular Season?
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
November 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The single-most underappreciated SP from the 2025 Regular Season?
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Zac Gallen. 192 IP. 13 W. 4.12 xFIP. Yet only 1.1 fWAR.
We need a separate stat for spWAR.
Who were MLB's most underrated SPs in 2025?
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
November 24, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Who were MLB's most underrated SPs in 2025?
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
These guys had 150+ IP and were within 5% of league-average FIP.
Median wins ~11:
Notice also that WAR does not reflect actual Wins. Kikuchi had 7. Freeland 5.
A replacement-level SP will throw 150+ IP and get 8~9W. These guys averaged 11W.
Quinn Priester had a better- than-average (4.01) FIP, got 13W, yet only 1.9 fWAR?
It's time to separate WAR for SP vs RP.
A replacement-level SP will throw 150+ IP and get 8~9W. These guys averaged 11W.
Quinn Priester had a better- than-average (4.01) FIP, got 13W, yet only 1.9 fWAR?
It's time to separate WAR for SP vs RP.
November 24, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Notice also that WAR does not reflect actual Wins. Kikuchi had 7. Freeland 5.
A replacement-level SP will throw 150+ IP and get 8~9W. These guys averaged 11W.
Quinn Priester had a better- than-average (4.01) FIP, got 13W, yet only 1.9 fWAR?
It's time to separate WAR for SP vs RP.
A replacement-level SP will throw 150+ IP and get 8~9W. These guys averaged 11W.
Quinn Priester had a better- than-average (4.01) FIP, got 13W, yet only 1.9 fWAR?
It's time to separate WAR for SP vs RP.
You might say a guy with higher FIP should not be pitching lots, and that is true for spot-effective guys like Holman, Hoglund, or Hatch.
But, in the regular season, it's worth using at least one precious roster spot for a workhorse (150+ IP, even with mediocre FIP).
All these should have 2+ WAR
But, in the regular season, it's worth using at least one precious roster spot for a workhorse (150+ IP, even with mediocre FIP).
All these should have 2+ WAR
November 24, 2025 at 3:41 PM
You might say a guy with higher FIP should not be pitching lots, and that is true for spot-effective guys like Holman, Hoglund, or Hatch.
But, in the regular season, it's worth using at least one precious roster spot for a workhorse (150+ IP, even with mediocre FIP).
All these should have 2+ WAR
But, in the regular season, it's worth using at least one precious roster spot for a workhorse (150+ IP, even with mediocre FIP).
All these should have 2+ WAR
WAR for SPs should increase the weight of IP vs FIP.
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
November 24, 2025 at 3:02 PM
WAR for SPs should increase the weight of IP vs FIP.
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
Consider Anderson (136.1 IP) vs Arrighetti (35.1 IP). There's no way that Tyler was worth just 0.2 wins more.
I mean, neither one had a great season (~5.6 FIP), but Tyler ate up ~100 more innings!
Same with Sugano (157.0 IP) vs Young (57.2 IP).
ITEM: Kidnapping, torturing major crypto holders to extract their digital keys...
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
November 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
ITEM: Kidnapping, torturing major crypto holders to extract their digital keys...
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
"[A]bductions have become so common that a major recent Bitcoin conference included a daylong “counter-kidnapping” workshop, in which participants learned, among other things, how to gnaw their way through zipties."
Fake news. GOP has been lying about this since 2010.
November 23, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Fake news. GOP has been lying about this since 2010.
GenXers and Millenials were told to get a degree, basically any subject would do.
This advice looks worse every year.
This advice looks worse every year.
November 23, 2025 at 2:41 PM
GenXers and Millenials were told to get a degree, basically any subject would do.
This advice looks worse every year.
This advice looks worse every year.
Should we start measuring consumer inflation in timeframes longer than 12 months?
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
November 23, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Should we start measuring consumer inflation in timeframes longer than 12 months?
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
"My interpretation of the vibecession, then, is that it’s mostly about prices that still shock Americans, plus some real problems that fly under the statistical radar."
E.g., interest rates on home mortgage loans.
I'm "shocked" to find undocumented workers doing jobs that American citizens don't want. Outside all day. Heat. Bugs. Low pay.
November 23, 2025 at 4:44 AM
I'm "shocked" to find undocumented workers doing jobs that American citizens don't want. Outside all day. Heat. Bugs. Low pay.
TIL that there are still people arguing on X about things like the Swedish response to Covid, and, in particular, if it was among the best.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
November 22, 2025 at 11:54 PM
TIL that there are still people arguing on X about things like the Swedish response to Covid, and, in particular, if it was among the best.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
It wasn't (see below).
Also, get out of that Nazi cesspool. You're not going to persuade anyone, and you look more foolish every day that you stay.
The cover viz says it all.
Why would any honest researcher use less than trailing-10yr for a base?
Why would any honest researcher use less than trailing-10yr for a base?
November 22, 2025 at 10:59 PM
The cover viz says it all.
Why would any honest researcher use less than trailing-10yr for a base?
Why would any honest researcher use less than trailing-10yr for a base?
You might be surprised that only two RPs (Smith and Chapman) would have a higher 2025 fWAR than Berríos' spWAR, until you weigh IP. Or their salaries!
November 22, 2025 at 10:40 PM
You might be surprised that only two RPs (Smith and Chapman) would have a higher 2025 fWAR than Berríos' spWAR, until you weigh IP. Or their salaries!