Paul T. Levin
@paultlevin.bsky.social
Director of the Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies. Managing Director Consortium for European Symposia on Turkey. Docent (Assoc. Prof.) of and pontificator on international relations. Opinionated. Painter.
Pinned
Paul T. Levin
@paultlevin.bsky.social
· Nov 1
I wrote my first Substack piece! In it, I ask if Turkey isn’t a better comparison to a second Trump administration than Nazi Germany. What can the US learn from an already autocratized Turkey? That the Washington Post is a precursor of what may come.
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
Det var så betryggande på semestern att grekerna använder den skånska stavningen av hans namn
November 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Det var så betryggande på semestern att grekerna använder den skånska stavningen av hans namn
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
That's not how peace agreements work. Getting something on a promise of payment and then not paying is, however, exactly how Donald Trump works. Ukraine and European NATO/the EU would be extremely foolish to fall for this. kyivindependent.com/us-to-discus...
November 27, 2025 at 3:00 PM
That's not how peace agreements work. Getting something on a promise of payment and then not paying is, however, exactly how Donald Trump works. Ukraine and European NATO/the EU would be extremely foolish to fall for this. kyivindependent.com/us-to-discus...
Utmärkt med diskussion om detta. Dock tror jag att @dagensnyheter.bsky.social:s ledarredaktion missförstått ett av kommitténs förslag. DN skriver ”om en kvalificerad riksdagsmajoritet väl har givit en regering den här makten så krävs också en lika stor majoritet för att avskaffa den”.+
Ledare: Regeringen vill ge sig själv mer makt – och kunna utfärda undantagstillstånd
En parlamentarisk kommitté föreslår utökad makt åt regeringen i kristid, på riksdagens bekostnad.
www.dn.se
November 27, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Utmärkt med diskussion om detta. Dock tror jag att @dagensnyheter.bsky.social:s ledarredaktion missförstått ett av kommitténs förslag. DN skriver ”om en kvalificerad riksdagsmajoritet väl har givit en regering den här makten så krävs också en lika stor majoritet för att avskaffa den”.+
If true (State denies), I don’t understand how Rubio can tell the Ukrainians this with a straight face.
But there’s now a bigger problem: Even if 🇺🇦 got a U.S. security guarantee as part of a deal, how could they trust it?
But there’s now a bigger problem: Even if 🇺🇦 got a U.S. security guarantee as part of a deal, how could they trust it?
This is like demanding that someone jump out of a plane before they’re given a parachute. www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
US demands peace deal before security guarantees for Ukraine
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies that President Donald Trump will negotiate long-term assurances for Ukraine’s safety.
www.politico.com
November 27, 2025 at 7:34 AM
If true (State denies), I don’t understand how Rubio can tell the Ukrainians this with a straight face.
But there’s now a bigger problem: Even if 🇺🇦 got a U.S. security guarantee as part of a deal, how could they trust it?
But there’s now a bigger problem: Even if 🇺🇦 got a U.S. security guarantee as part of a deal, how could they trust it?
I’m not going to say “I told you so “…
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg
November 26, 2025 at 8:04 AM
I’m not going to say “I told you so “…
If your reaction to the 28-point plan to supposedly end the war in Ukraine was some version of, “this compromise is better than continuing the war,” this ought to make you reevaluate your assumptions:
The plan was not only not a compromise; it was literally based on a proposal by the aggressor.
The plan was not only not a compromise; it was literally based on a proposal by the aggressor.
Exclusive: The US-backed 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, which became public last week, drew from a Russian-authored paper submitted to the Trump administration in October reut.rs/3XQq2ZT
November 26, 2025 at 7:06 AM
If your reaction to the 28-point plan to supposedly end the war in Ukraine was some version of, “this compromise is better than continuing the war,” this ought to make you reevaluate your assumptions:
The plan was not only not a compromise; it was literally based on a proposal by the aggressor.
The plan was not only not a compromise; it was literally based on a proposal by the aggressor.
American exceptionalism ain’t what it used to be. In most countries, conspiring to overturn the results of an election is a criminal offense punishable by serious prison time.
Bolsonaro to Start Serving 27-Year Sentence Over Coup Plot
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 6:39 AM
American exceptionalism ain’t what it used to be. In most countries, conspiring to overturn the results of an election is a criminal offense punishable by serious prison time.
You could never convince me that James Comey’s reference to the Trump administration’s case against him as based on “incompetence” and “malevolence” isn’t a nod to @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org
The US Department of Justice says it will appeal after a federal judge dismissed criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia Dean.
Hours before the appeal was announced, Comey said he expected Trump ‘to come after me again’.
Hours before the appeal was announced, Comey said he expected Trump ‘to come after me again’.
November 25, 2025 at 2:11 PM
You could never convince me that James Comey’s reference to the Trump administration’s case against him as based on “incompetence” and “malevolence” isn’t a nod to @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org
So, basically, Dim Philby (AKA Witkoff) got played by the Russians to accept their wish list (probably because he was mainly focused on ensuring that he & Trump get a cut from reconstruction) and then Trump embraced the “plan” as his, sort of. Explains the poor translation from Russian.
Bloomberg unfolds the history of the Vance-Dmitriev initiative... Dmitriev put it to Witkoff and Vance in a meeting in Miami, Axios published it, Trump and Rubio knew nothing of it. But then Trump decided to simply bless Dmitriev's draft after the fact. A perfect biopsy of "diplomacy" under Trump.
Secret US-Russia Talks Led to Peace Plan That Blindsided Ukraine
The controversial 28-point plan dropped suddenly by the Trump administration to Ukraine as a take-it-or-leave it proposition mere days ago was mostly the result of several weeks of negotiations behind...
www.bloomberg.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:44 AM
So, basically, Dim Philby (AKA Witkoff) got played by the Russians to accept their wish list (probably because he was mainly focused on ensuring that he & Trump get a cut from reconstruction) and then Trump embraced the “plan” as his, sort of. Explains the poor translation from Russian.
Perhaps the most important thing about this proposal is that Europe tries to seize the initiative for a change. The American press was discussing Dim Philby’s 28-point plan as if it were a serious and workable plan. It is not.
The Telegraph has leaked the full 24-point European peace proposal for Ukraine.
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
November 23, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Perhaps the most important thing about this proposal is that Europe tries to seize the initiative for a change. The American press was discussing Dim Philby’s 28-point plan as if it were a serious and workable plan. It is not.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
The Telegraph has leaked the full 24-point European peace proposal for Ukraine.
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
November 23, 2025 at 7:38 PM
The Telegraph has leaked the full 24-point European peace proposal for Ukraine.
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
1. End the war and ensure it cannot restart.
2. Full unconditional ceasefire on land, in the sky and at sea.
3. Immediate technical talks on ceasefire monitoring with US and EU participation. 1/
“U.S. capability is unique (…) and irreplaceable.” James Appathurai, interim head of NATO’s DIANA defense innovation program.
Europe’s alternative to Starlink is to goin service in 2030. That’s too late. Allies of 🇺🇦 will need to get creative & cobble together unorthodox solutions quicker than that.
Europe’s alternative to Starlink is to goin service in 2030. That’s too late. Allies of 🇺🇦 will need to get creative & cobble together unorthodox solutions quicker than that.
November 23, 2025 at 12:14 PM
“U.S. capability is unique (…) and irreplaceable.” James Appathurai, interim head of NATO’s DIANA defense innovation program.
Europe’s alternative to Starlink is to goin service in 2030. That’s too late. Allies of 🇺🇦 will need to get creative & cobble together unorthodox solutions quicker than that.
Europe’s alternative to Starlink is to goin service in 2030. That’s too late. Allies of 🇺🇦 will need to get creative & cobble together unorthodox solutions quicker than that.
Storbritannien har visserligen vaknat mycket sent till de omfattande ryska påverkansoperationerna i landet, men detta är ett föredömligt tydligt straff: Detta är allvarliga brott.
Hoppas att svensk polis och åklagare tar anteckningar.
Hoppas att svensk polis och åklagare tar anteckningar.
British politician Nathan Gill received ten and a half years for spreading Russian propaganda.
A Former MEP from the United Kingdom, leader of the UKIP & Reform UK right-wing populist party branches in Wales, Nathan Gill, was sentenced to ten and a half years in prison.
A Former MEP from the United Kingdom, leader of the UKIP & Reform UK right-wing populist party branches in Wales, Nathan Gill, was sentenced to ten and a half years in prison.
November 23, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Storbritannien har visserligen vaknat mycket sent till de omfattande ryska påverkansoperationerna i landet, men detta är ett föredömligt tydligt straff: Detta är allvarliga brott.
Hoppas att svensk polis och åklagare tar anteckningar.
Hoppas att svensk polis och åklagare tar anteckningar.
“Solutions that respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and that will bring Ukraine and Europe greater security and stability have our full support.
We will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.“
We will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.“
Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eighth, 22 November 2025
"We [...] have [...] stood by Ukraine’s side and we will continue to do so. Our resolve comes from the fact that we know that this is not only about Ukrainian security, it is also about the wider security of Europe."
"We [...] have [...] stood by Ukraine’s side and we will continue to do so. Our resolve comes from the fact that we know that this is not only about Ukrainian security, it is also about the wider security of Europe."
Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight
We – the leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight – spoke with President Zelenskyy today. We have from the outset of Russia’s war of aggression stood by...
www.government.se
November 22, 2025 at 9:26 PM
“Solutions that respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and that will bring Ukraine and Europe greater security and stability have our full support.
We will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.“
We will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.“
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
An absolute scandal compounded in this case by failure of French government and EU institutions to forcefully react and sanction in turn those who have sanctioned ICC judges and prosecutors. Makes a total mockery of FR/EU's repeated commitment to the rule of law/ICC
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
November 21, 2025 at 9:58 AM
An absolute scandal compounded in this case by failure of French government and EU institutions to forcefully react and sanction in turn those who have sanctioned ICC judges and prosecutors. Makes a total mockery of FR/EU's repeated commitment to the rule of law/ICC
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
It’s amazing what a country can achieve when its accountability mechanisms function without fear or political interference.
Brazil's Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro, with a judge claiming the former president was intent on escaping as he was set to begin his prison sentence for leading a coup attempt. n.pr/48l5ldE
Brazil's Bolsonaro arrested for allegedly plotting escape ahead of prison term
Brazil's Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro, with a judge claiming the former president was intent on escaping as he was set to begin his prison sentence for leading a coup attempt.
n.pr
November 22, 2025 at 2:07 PM
It’s amazing what a country can achieve when its accountability mechanisms function without fear or political interference.
By the way, this Gromyko quote also describes President Donald Trump’s negotiating style perfectly, with the addition that he often caves when push comes to shove. Something for European leaders to consider when dealing with him, whether on tariffs or Ukraine.
November 22, 2025 at 1:27 PM
By the way, this Gromyko quote also describes President Donald Trump’s negotiating style perfectly, with the addition that he often caves when push comes to shove. Something for European leaders to consider when dealing with him, whether on tariffs or Ukraine.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
🇺🇦 Zelensky: Spoke with our friends, the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Informed about the work with American and European partners on the plan to end the war and our next steps. Ukraine has been striving for a decent peace like no other since the first days of this war.
Informed about the work with American and European partners on the plan to end the war and our next steps. Ukraine has been striving for a decent peace like no other since the first days of this war.
November 22, 2025 at 1:15 PM
🇺🇦 Zelensky: Spoke with our friends, the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Informed about the work with American and European partners on the plan to end the war and our next steps. Ukraine has been striving for a decent peace like no other since the first days of this war.
Informed about the work with American and European partners on the plan to end the war and our next steps. Ukraine has been striving for a decent peace like no other since the first days of this war.
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
This morning, the Turkish Ministry of Interior has granted permission for an investigation into Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and his Private Secretary Nevzat Uzunoğlu for “abuse of office” over irregularities regarding concert expenses.
t24.com.tr/haber/icisle...
t24.com.tr/haber/icisle...
November 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
This morning, the Turkish Ministry of Interior has granted permission for an investigation into Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and his Private Secretary Nevzat Uzunoğlu for “abuse of office” over irregularities regarding concert expenses.
t24.com.tr/haber/icisle...
t24.com.tr/haber/icisle...
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
The grovelling strategy, while imo justified for the sake of getting Ukraine patriots and the PURL scheme set up, always had an expiration date.
Agree that time is up now.
Agree that time is up now.
And Trump is weak right now. He just suffered a humiliating loss in Congress & the GOP was roundly defeated in the recent off-year elections. Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are dismal & SCOTUS may remove his ability to impose tariffs at will. Now is the time for Europe to stand up to him.
November 22, 2025 at 10:23 AM
The grovelling strategy, while imo justified for the sake of getting Ukraine patriots and the PURL scheme set up, always had an expiration date.
Agree that time is up now.
Agree that time is up now.
There is a broader future consideration for European leaders here: Do they want a slightly humbled Trump or an empowered POTUS who can bully allies with abandon? Caving & granting Trump a major foreign policy victory at a time where he faces serious political problems at home gives them the latter.
And Trump is weak right now. He just suffered a humiliating loss in Congress & the GOP was roundly defeated in the recent off-year elections. Trump’s approval ratings on the economy are dismal & SCOTUS may remove his ability to impose tariffs at will. Now is the time for Europe to stand up to him.
November 22, 2025 at 10:13 AM
There is a broader future consideration for European leaders here: Do they want a slightly humbled Trump or an empowered POTUS who can bully allies with abandon? Caving & granting Trump a major foreign policy victory at a time where he faces serious political problems at home gives them the latter.
I don’t blame European leaders for flattering Trump. He responds to it & they desperately don’t want him to abandon Europe. But they now have to ask themselves what their groveling has brought them & if they really risk much worse by taking a stand. What are US security guarantees to Europe worth? +
Fully agree with my paper's editorial on Trump. Ukraine needs Europe to stop flattering Trump the conman and take a clear stand for its own survival and values. www.ft.com/content/8ccf...
Trump’s world view: cynical, self-interested and money-grabbing
Latest Ukraine peace plan presented by the US would be a capitulation to Moscow
www.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:12 AM
I don’t blame European leaders for flattering Trump. He responds to it & they desperately don’t want him to abandon Europe. But they now have to ask themselves what their groveling has brought them & if they really risk much worse by taking a stand. What are US security guarantees to Europe worth? +
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
I don’t think the Rutte “daddy strategy” worked
November 22, 2025 at 6:01 AM
I don’t think the Rutte “daddy strategy” worked
Reposted by Paul T. Levin
So the Witkoff-Putin plan is for Ukraine to partially disarm, have no European troops stationed on its territory, and no security from NATO membership, while Putin pinky promises, crosses his heart & hopes to d1e really really sincerely that he won’t attack Ukraine again?
November 21, 2025 at 6:39 AM
So the Witkoff-Putin plan is for Ukraine to partially disarm, have no European troops stationed on its territory, and no security from NATO membership, while Putin pinky promises, crosses his heart & hopes to d1e really really sincerely that he won’t attack Ukraine again?