Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 12h

Chris Bassitt in 7th inning garbage time. Sigh.

1 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 16h

Get em

1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 16h

But he can’t chase a ton *and* whiff in the zone. That ain’t gonna work.

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 16h

Yeah that’s one area that backslid last year, but I’m not sure he was a demonstrably better hitter when he did improve this (23-24) than he was earlier in his career.

2

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

Yeah, probably not gonna happen at this point unfortunately

Chart showing Ryan Mountcastle consistently posting chase rates at or near 40 percent over his career.

3 5

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

That said, he was always a flawed player who made it work as a mostly regular by being good-not-great with the bat and turning himself into an above average defender at 1st with sneaky decent speed.

if the +8 DRS in 2024 was a blip he's probably a part-time player going forward even with a 107 wRC+

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

Exit velocities were solid (hit career high maxEV this year) though his bat speed has been down 1 MPH 2024-25 compared to 2023.

In-zone swing and miss was bad but it's basically always been bad. I'm not necessarily seeing signs that he's falling off a cliff at age 29.

1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

The biggest red flag there is his plate discipline. It's always been bad but last year's 0.15 BB/K ratio was easily the worst of his career.

But again, injuries, loss of regular playing time, could be a blip. Only 29 next year. Probably has some years of being a second division regular left in him.

2 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

It doesn't explain the drop in defense (+8 DRS in 2024, -1 in 2025) or baserunning (career low -1), but some of that could probably be explained by injuries.

I wouldn't bet on it, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to return to the slightly above average hitter he's always been.

1 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 18h

Since I've been posting about apparent bad luck for young Orioles hitters last year, I'll be fair and apply it to Ryan Mountcastle, too.

The -.040 delta between is actual wOBA (.284) and xwOBA (.324) was the third worst on the team, and his xwOBA was in line with career numbers.

1 1 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

I can't think of a more worthless or less interesting exercise than "I asked ChatGPT what (my favorite team) should do this offseason, here's what it said"

1 16

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

yeah I guess that would be pretty awkward

1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

I could see that. They'll have a lot of interested candidates to choose from I think.

1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

Probably a very attractive destination for Bob Melvin, and just about everyone else.

MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors.bsky.social · 19h

Mike Shildt Steps Down As Padres Manager

In a surprising move, Padres manager Mike Shildt has announced he is stepping down from that role, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego-Union Tribune. The decision was Shildt’s, Acee adds. He has managed the club for two years and had two years remaining on his contract. More to come…

dlvr.it

4 5

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

What does “retirement from managing the San Diego Padres” mean lol

1 3

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 19h

I’m the LDL propaganda appreciator

Baseball America @baseballamerica.com · 20h

The hottest prospects in the desert 🔥 🏜️

Check out our AFL Hot Sheet: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/rank...

1 1 9

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

It gives him a solid floor. He's already shown he can hit lefties at this level.

.253/.330/.437, 116 wRC+ on the season, .263/.344/.509, 139 wRC+ second half.

I'm very comfortable with him in a loose platoon to start the season, hopefully earning more time against RHP as the season goes.

1 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

Yeah, that's why I'd project him as fringe average to average next year. He was already fringe average by FRV in the second half after struggling in the first half.

1 1

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

The third possibility is a guy who mashes lefties but doesn't make much progress against RHP, plays about 50-70% of the time with an OPS that falls somewhere between those two.

1 3

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

I'd guess the median projection for Coby Mayo next year is something like his 2nd-half self: mid-.700 OPS, 110 wRC+, close to average defense. That's Kyle Manzardo, 1-1.5 WAR territory.

The upside is more like mid-.800 OPS, 130-140 wRC, solid average defense. Ben Rice/Josh Naylor 3+ WAR territory.

2 6

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 22h

8 words to get him in the mood: “Their most glaring weakness moving forward is Volpe.”

Their most glaring weakness moving forward is Volpe. The 24-year-old shortstop took major steps back in his development this season. He’s not progressing at the plate, and his defense has deteriorated. Some of his struggles may have been tied to the partially torn labrum in his left shoulder that he played through for most of the season, but it would be foolish to cite the injury as a reason to ignore all of the evidence in front of us. After three consecutive years of an on-base percentage below .300 and a wRC+ between 83 and 87, the Yankees can no longer expect Volpe to turn into an offensive force. Among the 229 players who’ve made at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of the 2023 season, Volpe ranks 206th with an 85 wRC+.

3 10

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 1d

You can only get this jacked by rage posting about Brian Roberts and Ben McDonald

Meg Rowley @megrowler.fangraphs.com · 1d

Everyone is talking about butt plug shirt guy, but don’t sleep on the super jacked dude behind him

A goomba from the Super Mario Brothers movie

1 11

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 1d

Gausman had the benefit of coming off a much better walk year than Flaherty, and thus got paid more (even before adjusting for inflation) than Flaherty likely will. KG had been a bit more durable as well. But overall there are a lot of similarities between their profiles and trajectories.

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 1d

~30-YO RHPs, highly touted prospects, experienced some success early but inconsistent run prevention despite generally strong peripherals. Coming off short contracts in their first taste of FA. At the same point:

Flaherty (29)
3.80 ERA/3.90 FIP, 16.1 fWAR

Gausman (30)
4.02 ERA/3.88 FIP, 19.9 fWAR

1 1

Reposted by D’Janiel Sanchez

Weed Detective @wolfmanzack.bsky.social · 1d

BIG DUMPER SHITTED IN THE MOTHER TOILET AND HE DID. NOT. FLUSH.

2 4 46