Tony Corke
@matterofstats.bsky.social
#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football.
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
@matterofstats on Twitter
"Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"
Reposted by Tony Corke
They’re forming a CDC workgroup to decide which line on this graph looks better and their answer may surprise you
June 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
They’re forming a CDC workgroup to decide which line on this graph looks better and their answer may surprise you
Reposted by Tony Corke
Bad framing: ACIP voted to scrap the universal hepatitis B vaccine recommendation for newborns.
Accurate framing: Anti-vax conspiracy theorists appointed to ACIP by Robert Kennedy Jr., who made a fortune as an anti-vax profiteer, voted to expose babies to a preventable, incurable, deadly illness.
Accurate framing: Anti-vax conspiracy theorists appointed to ACIP by Robert Kennedy Jr., who made a fortune as an anti-vax profiteer, voted to expose babies to a preventable, incurable, deadly illness.
December 5, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Bad framing: ACIP voted to scrap the universal hepatitis B vaccine recommendation for newborns.
Accurate framing: Anti-vax conspiracy theorists appointed to ACIP by Robert Kennedy Jr., who made a fortune as an anti-vax profiteer, voted to expose babies to a preventable, incurable, deadly illness.
Accurate framing: Anti-vax conspiracy theorists appointed to ACIP by Robert Kennedy Jr., who made a fortune as an anti-vax profiteer, voted to expose babies to a preventable, incurable, deadly illness.
TIL My barber, who owns the salon, has one of his staff cut his hair.
There’s a high-risk activity - possibly for both.
There’s a high-risk activity - possibly for both.
December 3, 2025 at 9:14 AM
TIL My barber, who owns the salon, has one of his staff cut his hair.
There’s a high-risk activity - possibly for both.
There’s a high-risk activity - possibly for both.
Is football (soccer) the only sport that has international "friendlies"?
December 3, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Is football (soccer) the only sport that has international "friendlies"?
Claude is throwing shade at my R coding skills
"I'll analyze this R code and provide optimizations for speed. This appears to be an AFL (Australian Football League) rating system with several performance bottlenecks."
"I'll analyze this R code and provide optimizations for speed. This appears to be an AFL (Australian Football League) rating system with several performance bottlenecks."
December 2, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Claude is throwing shade at my R coding skills
"I'll analyze this R code and provide optimizations for speed. This appears to be an AFL (Australian Football League) rating system with several performance bottlenecks."
"I'll analyze this R code and provide optimizations for speed. This appears to be an AFL (Australian Football League) rating system with several performance bottlenecks."
Looks like we've been put on the NBN Ultrafast Service
December 2, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Looks like we've been put on the NBN Ultrafast Service
Here's an interesting case. Was this, considered as a whole, an "exciting" game.
The algo says "no" as there's only a single switch of scoring dominance
The algo says "no" as there's only a single switch of scoring dominance
December 2, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Here's an interesting case. Was this, considered as a whole, an "exciting" game.
The algo says "no" as there's only a single switch of scoring dominance
The algo says "no" as there's only a single switch of scoring dominance
Ah, that’s right - asparagus for dinner. I had forgotten.
As you were.
As you were.
December 1, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Ah, that’s right - asparagus for dinner. I had forgotten.
As you were.
As you were.
ICYMI late last night
Attached is a map of whole-of-game excitement summarised by the median and standard deviation for all men's 2025 games. Note that it treats all portions of the game equally, so it won't be unduly impressed by close finishes.
Thoughts welcomed
Thoughts welcomed
December 1, 2025 at 4:28 AM
ICYMI late last night
Attached is a map of whole-of-game excitement summarised by the median and standard deviation for all men's 2025 games. Note that it treats all portions of the game equally, so it won't be unduly impressed by close finishes.
Thoughts welcomed
Thoughts welcomed
November 30, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Attached is a map of whole-of-game excitement summarised by the median and standard deviation for all men's 2025 games. Note that it treats all portions of the game equally, so it won't be unduly impressed by close finishes.
Thoughts welcomed
Thoughts welcomed
Never quite worked out what factors did to offend ggplot2
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
November 30, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Never quite worked out what factors did to offend ggplot2
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
"No, no, it'll be alphabetical order you'll be having .."
Reposted by Tony Corke
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 28, 2025 at 6:29 PM
"Confidence in the accuracy of one's forecasts is perversely associated with lower accuracy."
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
www.nber.org/papers/w34493
Suspect I’ll soon know why this was on special
November 28, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Suspect I’ll soon know why this was on special
Reposted by Tony Corke
"a single person of this demographic may have committed a crime, therefore we must punish the entire demographic" is a policy response you may recognize from fascist governments dedicated to ethnic cleansing elsewhere.
November 27, 2025 at 5:52 AM
"a single person of this demographic may have committed a crime, therefore we must punish the entire demographic" is a policy response you may recognize from fascist governments dedicated to ethnic cleansing elsewhere.
Yet another undercover visitor to the MoS website
November 27, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Yet another undercover visitor to the MoS website
Bliss n. A state of extreme contentment
November 26, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Bliss n. A state of extreme contentment
To my Bayesian friends, how often is model fitting highly dependent on available computing power and the fight for convergence?
November 26, 2025 at 11:26 AM
To my Bayesian friends, how often is model fitting highly dependent on available computing power and the fight for convergence?
Just in case any of you are looking for closure, my ‘lunch’ was finally delivered just after 5pm … to my neighbours’ … and cold
And, of course, we’re still without power
And, of course, we’re still without power
November 26, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Just in case any of you are looking for closure, my ‘lunch’ was finally delivered just after 5pm … to my neighbours’ … and cold
And, of course, we’re still without power
And, of course, we’re still without power
n hindsight, probably not a great idea to order lunch via Menulog on their last day of operation
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
November 26, 2025 at 5:16 AM
n hindsight, probably not a great idea to order lunch via Menulog on their last day of operation
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
Been 4 hours since I ordered at restaurant number 1 who, when phoned at 2:15pm said no driver had turned up. Cancelled.
Driver is now allegedly at restaurant number 2
New addition to the front lawn
November 26, 2025 at 2:58 AM
New addition to the front lawn
Without power here after a huge storm. Website says 5.5 hours to fix, SMS from Endeavour Energy says 10.5 hours
November 26, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Without power here after a huge storm. Website says 5.5 hours to fix, SMS from Endeavour Energy says 10.5 hours
Reposted by Tony Corke
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
November 25, 2025 at 10:56 AM
this is one of my favourite observations about sample size calculations. (afaik first articulated by Miettinen in 1985)
Reposted by Tony Corke
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1