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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 3h

October 10th was marked by two M7+ earthquakes on the same day - 14,000 km apart! How unusual is that? We crunch some numbers.

Also: what’s going on in the Drake Passage? 2025 has seen three mid-M7 earthquakes there, after decades of relative seismic silence. What can the limited data tell us?

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Another mid-M7 earthquake in the Drake Passage

The third large earthquake to strike between South America and Antarctica this year

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 3h

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A M5.7 earthquake shook the island of Cebu in the Philippines today - an aftershock of the deadly M6.9 on September 30th.

Although the mainshock was strike-slip, this aftershock was a thrust - consistent with mapping of this newly discovered fault based on field studies and satellite imagery.

Cebu shaken by M5.7 earthquake: aftershock of earlier M6.9

Thrust event likely related to a bend in the newly identified Bogo Bay Fault

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

And rather remarkably similar to the M7.5 in August! They plot directly on top of each other, with almost identical focal mechanisms and very similar magnitudes. Curious...

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

What I really want is pottery from (specific) fault gouges…

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

It’s basically the easiest way to improve your life experience. A permanent supply of rotating adorable kittens.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

If you don’t foster kittens for your local animal shelter, you’re missing out.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

We look forward to seeing new developments in seismology based on machine learning, where appropriate. And, we hope the scientists are careful - this can be a useful tool, but only in the right settings, and with the right approach. AI should complement, not try to replace, earthquake science.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

And here, a method developed based on a small (and faulty) catalog, that failed when tested against new data:

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Does this machine learning model predict large earthquakes? Maybe not.

We examine a new earthquake paper in Nature Communications.

doi.org

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

But it is important to keep the limits of machine learning seismology in mind!

When we have evaluated AI "earthquake predictions", we have found them to be statistically meaningless.

Here, we wrote about an AI earthquake prediction competition in China.

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More machine learning earthquake predictions make it into print

We predict that the methods won't hold up... Let's find out!

doi.org

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

For instance, new methods reveal tremendous detail about the seismic swarm below Santorini earlier this year.

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Volcanic crisis reveals coupled magma system at Santorini and Kolumbo - Nature

Seismological and geodetic data are used together with a machine learning earthquake catalogue to reconstruct magma migration before and during the 2025 volcano–tectonic crisis at Santorini volcano, indicating a coupling between Santorini and Kolumbo.

doi.org

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

It was a pleasure to contribute to this article, which talks about how AI contributes to seismology - indeed, we have seen tremendous progress in the use of machine learning to detect small events.

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“Like putting on glasses for the first time”—how AI improves earthquake detection

AI is “comically good” at detecting small earthquakes—here’s why that matters.

arstechnica.com

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 1d

This makes me so sad! My favorite media interviews were with Science in Action - somehow the conversation just flowed, and I got unexpected compliments from distant friends and colleagues who happened to tune in. The world needs more in-depth, accessible coverage of science, not less.

Roland Pease @peaseroland.bsky.social · 1d

Science in Action on the BBC World Service celebrated its 50th birthday in 2014, but sadly won't be around to celebrate its 61st next month.
#BudgetCuts

Let's hope Quirks & Quarks reaches a healthy old age.🎉🍾🎉

Denis Gilbert 🌎 @denis-gilbert.ca · 2d

CBC Radio's science show 'Quirks & Quarks' celebrated its 50-year anniversary in a fun episode that invited experts to discuss the last 50 years of research in cosmology, genetics, climate, computers, agriculture and speculate on the next 50 years! 🧪

www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

#SciComm #Science

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Reposted by Dr. Judith Hubbard

Dr. Wendy Bohon @drwendyrocks.bsky.social · 2d

M 7.6 earthquake in the Drake Passage

earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Map showing the location of the earthquake out in the ocean between Antarctica and the southern tip of South America. Concentric rings show contours of earthquake shaking.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 2d

Thanks! Drawing a cross section across these kinds of places is always fraught.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 2d

A M7.4 earthquake struck the Philippine subduction zone today, causing damaging shaking across much of Mindanao. Several people have died.

This is the Philippines' second deadly earthquake in two weeks. Are the events related? And how does this quake compare to the nearby M7.6 in 2023?

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Damaging M7.4 subduction earthquake shakes Mindanao, Philippines

The Philippines' second deadly earthquake in two weeks

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 6d

There are all kinds of local elections coming up. Here in Tompkins County, early voting starts on October 25th, and election day is November 4th.

Support your local candidates with your wallet, and at the ballot box - they are working to get out the vote, and could use your help.

Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 8d

I'm running for something!

The world is a complicated and increasingly scary place. Decisions made at the local level will have real impacts. That's why I'm running for a seat on the Tompkins County Legislature.

If you can afford to pitch in, I'd really appreciate your support.

Donate to Judith Hubbard

Show your support with a contribution.

secure.actblue.com

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Reposted by Dr. Judith Hubbard

KOJAMF🤘🖤🤘 @kojamf.bsky.social · 7d

Dr. Jane Goodall filmed an interview with Netflix in March 2025 that she understood would only be released after her death.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 7d

In case you're wondering - I always kind of did - the money pays for literature (print-outs I can hand out when I go door-to-door) and yard signs. Visibility helps local voters stay tuned in, helping both the candidate and the party.

It turns out these things cost hundreds of dollars! Who knew?

Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 8d

I'm running for something!

The world is a complicated and increasingly scary place. Decisions made at the local level will have real impacts. That's why I'm running for a seat on the Tompkins County Legislature.

If you can afford to pitch in, I'd really appreciate your support.

Donate to Judith Hubbard

Show your support with a contribution.

secure.actblue.com

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 8d

Thanks! Right now I think I’m set - getting some great advice - but I might reach out later on, once the chaos is over, for advice on making effective policy.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 8d

I am proud to be endorsed by @tompkinscountydems.bsky.social (Tompkins County Democrats),
@nywfp.bsky.social (New York Working Families Party),
@314action.bsky.social (314 Action: supporting scientists running for office)
and
Eleanor's Legacy (supporting pro-choice Democratic women).

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 8d

I'm running for something!

The world is a complicated and increasingly scary place. Decisions made at the local level will have real impacts. That's why I'm running for a seat on the Tompkins County Legislature.

If you can afford to pitch in, I'd really appreciate your support.

Donate to Judith Hubbard

Show your support with a contribution.

secure.actblue.com

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Reposted by Dr. Judith Hubbard

Paul Duane 🥔 @paulduane.bsky.social · 9d

"The makers of AI aren’t damned by their failures, they’re damned by their goals. They want to build a genie to grant them wishes, and their wish is that nobody ever has to make art again. Their dream is to invent new forms of life to enslave."

Chris Dabbs, Ph.D. @dabbspsych.bsky.social · 9d

I am an AI hater by @anthonymoser.com

anthonymoser.github.io/writing/ai/h...

I Am An AI Hater

I am an AI hater. This is considered rude, but I do not care, because I am a hater.

anthonymoser.github.io

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 9d

To be clear, though, there are actually a lot of great geologists working on earthquakes in the Philippines. One problem is that the tectonics are so complicated. More importantly, knowing where faults are doesn’t actually make people safer - that requires more resilient infrastructure.

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Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 9d

A M5.0 earthquake struck below the Sea of Marmara (Türkiye) yesterday, a little west of April's M6.2. Was this an aftershock? What does it mean for hazard? We have added a map and short discussion to our previous post, and removed the paywall. ⚒️ 🧪

earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m62-earthq...

Seismicity below the Sea of Marmara since January 1, 2025, colored by time, with a timeline.

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Reposted by Dr. Judith Hubbard

Dr. Judith Hubbard @judithgeology.bsky.social · 12d

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A M6.9 earthquake struck Cebu island in the Philippines today, causing at least 20 deaths.

The rupture seems to have occurred on an unmapped fault, started below the ocean and continuing to the southwest, passing near populated areas of Cebu.

Read more:

Deadly M6.9 earthquake strikes central Philippines

An unexpected event on an apparently unmapped fault

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

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