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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 21h

Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 21h

To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 1d

Always interesting to see this come up again 😄

Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.

We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).

Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.

Clarified 🌊👇

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Chris Osburn @closburn.bsky.social · 4d

Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University.
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊

Assistant Professor

The Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences (MEAS) at North Carolina State University seeks to fill a tenure-track faculty position at the rank of Assistant Professor in physical oceanog...

jobs.ncsu.edu

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 5d

🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online!

We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.

Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊

Will the AMOC Collapse? Insights from Climate Models | Jonathan Baker | ClimTip Webinar

YouTube video by ClimTip

www.youtube.com

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Linus Vogt @linusvogt.bsky.social · 11d

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!

We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.

This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.

🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

esd.copernicus.org

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Jens Terhaar @polarocean.bsky.social · 11d

Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social

Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

esd.copernicus.org

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Reposted by Jon Baker

James Rae @mudwaterclimate.bsky.social · 26d

🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications

A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Jens Daniel Müller @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social · Sep 2

🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change

The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...

doi.org

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Sep 1

⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC.

Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.

🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Aug 29

My comments in The Guardian about an important new study.
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.

We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds

Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Jon Baker

ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · Aug 26

1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025.

New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social ‬in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.

But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature

Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Léon Chafik 🌊 🌎 🛰️ @leonchafik.bsky.social · Aug 20

Last chance to submit your abstract to our OSM26 session on northern overturning and watermass transformation. Looking forward to seeing your work 🌊

Léon Chafik 🌊 🌎 🛰️ @leonchafik.bsky.social · Jul 20

Thinking about attending OSM 2026 in Glasgow? Consider submitting to our session:

Session ID: 259677
Title: HE009 – Overturning circulation and water mass transformation in the northern oceans
Topic Area: High Latitude Environments

lnkd.in/dw5nmNRF

Overturning circulation and water mass transformation in the northern oceans

The overturning circulation of the northern oceans – including the subpolar North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Arctic Ocean – plays a key role in transporting heat, freshwater, and anthropogenic carbon....

agu.confex.com

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Femke de Jong @fmkdejong.bsky.social · Aug 20

Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...

We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NIOZ - PhD-position "Overturning the ocean''

The department of Ocean Systems (OCS) at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research (NIOZ) is looking for an enthusiastic and motivated PhD candidate to work on the exchange of lighter and denser

workingat.nioz.nl

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Aug 19

🌊 The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” is crucial for global climate, but what does its future hold?

I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.

📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST

ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · Aug 19

🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.

Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.

📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

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Reposted by Jon Baker

ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · Aug 19

🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.

Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.

📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 22

The future of the AMOC is one of the most urgent — and uncertain — questions in climate science.

In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊

The ocean circulation that keeps Europe warm - UK Weather - Met Office Explains

YouTube video by Met Office - UK Weather

youtu.be

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · Jul 15

Deep water formation decreased in the Nordic Sea during 1993-2020. This decrease was countered by an increase in deep water formation near the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge. Thus, the transport of dense overflow waters to the AMOC's lower limb remained unchanged: 🌊 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation

A less ice-covered Arctic shifts dense water formation northward, strengthening the Arctic Ocean overturning circulation.

www.science.org

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 14

Surely the earliest April Fool’s? This idea is completely bonkers!

The bold plan to save a vital ocean current with giant parachutes

Large sea anchors could be used to drag water under a bold plan to keep the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation moving – but some experts are sceptical

www.newscientist.com

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 9

P.S. I’m giving a talk at the uni next week on our recent findings, along with a general overview of the science — would be great to see you there!

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 9

Not at all — thanks for the interest! I do think there are real merits to those arguments, and I found Rahmstorf’s review thought-provoking. That said, there may also be biases in the stabilising processes, so we also need more research to understand their impact.

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 9

That sounds great — I’d definitely tune in to hear more about it! Also great to see the AMOC getting attention on shows like yours.

Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 9

Agreed — it would have been great to have more time for discussion! Rahmstorf suggests a 50:50 chance of passing the AMOC tipping point within decades — but doesn’t clarify what forcings would drive that. A sixth sense for AMOC would be impressive.

Roland Pease @peaseroland.bsky.social · Jul 9

Only just saw this thread from @jonbakerocean.bsky.social responding to my interview on Science in Action with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...

Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · May 2

3/ There’s no disagreement on definition: 21st century AMOC “collapse” means a weakening below 6 Sv—not to zero—as now clearly stated in our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41....

We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.

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Reposted by Jon Baker

Roland Pease @peaseroland.bsky.social · Jul 9

Only just saw this thread from @jonbakerocean.bsky.social responding to my interview on Science in Action with @rahmstorf.bsky.social
It was a pity #EGU25 didn't give more time for some to and fro at the session.
Next year?
bsky.app/profile/jonb...

Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · May 2

3/ There’s no disagreement on definition: 21st century AMOC “collapse” means a weakening below 6 Sv—not to zero—as now clearly stated in our paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41....

We’ve also clarified this on social media and in my EGU talk just before Stefan’s interview.

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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · Jul 9

Grateful to be part of these projects — check them out!

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