Joe Thorndike
@joethorndike.bsky.social
Tax | History | Politics
Not in any particular order, although tax pays the bills (for me and everyone else).
Not in any particular order, although tax pays the bills (for me and everyone else).
Pinned
You could paper every wall of the Ways and Means hearing room with late 19th/early 20th century cartoons complaining about the high tariff.
Mamdani, Trump, and FDR: What that Oval Office photo misses about Roosevelt and his war on wealth
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
December 8, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Mamdani, Trump, and FDR: What that Oval Office photo misses about Roosevelt and his war on wealth
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
December 1, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Seems ironic/appropriate/illuminating that the GAO page explaining the Antideficiency Act and its role in government shutdowns is itself a victim of the government shutdown.
November 11, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Seems ironic/appropriate/illuminating that the GAO page explaining the Antideficiency Act and its role in government shutdowns is itself a victim of the government shutdown.
RIP to Dick “Deficits Don’t Matter” Cheney
As a matter of economics, still dubious. As a matter of politics, obviously and demonstrably true —so far.
As a matter of economics, still dubious. As a matter of politics, obviously and demonstrably true —so far.
November 4, 2025 at 12:31 PM
RIP to Dick “Deficits Don’t Matter” Cheney
As a matter of economics, still dubious. As a matter of politics, obviously and demonstrably true —so far.
As a matter of economics, still dubious. As a matter of politics, obviously and demonstrably true —so far.
Politico: “gas prices have fallen to levels not seen in decades.”
Really? I’d like to see the data behind this claim.
apple.news/AYXYDcb5tT3W...
Really? I’d like to see the data behind this claim.
apple.news/AYXYDcb5tT3W...
Trump is selling a strong economy. Voters aren’t buying it. — POLITICO
Privately, aides concede voters remain uneasy about prices but argue their policies are beginning to turn things around.
apple.news
September 14, 2025 at 1:15 AM
Politico: “gas prices have fallen to levels not seen in decades.”
Really? I’d like to see the data behind this claim.
apple.news/AYXYDcb5tT3W...
Really? I’d like to see the data behind this claim.
apple.news/AYXYDcb5tT3W...
I think this is probably wrong. As I argued here: www.taxnotes.com/tax-history-...
August 29, 2025 at 2:37 PM
I think this is probably wrong. As I argued here: www.taxnotes.com/tax-history-...
Reposted by Joe Thorndike
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
August 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
Reposted by Joe Thorndike
today I am loving the UN Geneva Archives platform which hosts the complete League of Nations archives, digitised, entirely free
some archive digitisation programs are very clunky & hard to use, this is immaculate & has an incredibly user friendly interface + excellent metadata
some archive digitisation programs are very clunky & hard to use, this is immaculate & has an incredibly user friendly interface + excellent metadata
archives.ungeneva.org
August 20, 2025 at 9:56 AM
today I am loving the UN Geneva Archives platform which hosts the complete League of Nations archives, digitised, entirely free
some archive digitisation programs are very clunky & hard to use, this is immaculate & has an incredibly user friendly interface + excellent metadata
some archive digitisation programs are very clunky & hard to use, this is immaculate & has an incredibly user friendly interface + excellent metadata
I have a similar reaction to AI used for non-math functions. In history, for instance, it’s great for summarizing arguments and evidence — as long as the accuracy and reliability of those summaries aren’t important.
Super useful, for sure. Turns all of us from writers into fact checkers.
Super useful, for sure. Turns all of us from writers into fact checkers.
Good thing no one uses Microsoft Excel for anything related to legal, regulatory or compliance business functions
www.theverge.com/news/761338/...
www.theverge.com/news/761338/...
August 19, 2025 at 6:36 PM
I have a similar reaction to AI used for non-math functions. In history, for instance, it’s great for summarizing arguments and evidence — as long as the accuracy and reliability of those summaries aren’t important.
Super useful, for sure. Turns all of us from writers into fact checkers.
Super useful, for sure. Turns all of us from writers into fact checkers.
History suggests that tariff revenue won’t be so hard to quit.
"Tariffs are raising a lot of revenue these days," @joethorndike.bsky.social writes. "And depending on how you feel about regressive taxes that boost prices, slow growth, and raise unemployment, that might be a problem."
Tariff Revenue May Be Hard To Quit, But We’ve Done It Before
Joseph Thorndike overviews 125 years of tariff history throughout which politicians have abandoned productive taxes and tariffs that seemed unfair, unwise, or unpopular.
www.forbes.com
August 19, 2025 at 12:42 PM
History suggests that tariff revenue won’t be so hard to quit.
Reposted by Joe Thorndike
So much for foreigners paying tariffs. If they did PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago & 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead.
August 14, 2025 at 12:36 PM
So much for foreigners paying tariffs. If they did PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago & 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead.
A ChatGPT fail for the historians out there
August 8, 2025 at 8:17 PM
A ChatGPT fail for the historians out there
I think the word “finalized” might be part of the problem here.
Tensions have been mounting between the U.S. and Japan as both sides appear to have starkly different interpretations of a trade deal finalized last month.
Japan Says Trump to Correct ‘Extremely Regrettable’ Error in Tariff Order
Tensions have been mounting between the United States and Japan as both sides appear to have starkly different interpretations of a trade deal finalized last month.
nyti.ms
August 8, 2025 at 11:49 AM
I think the word “finalized” might be part of the problem here.
Ronald Reagan: “A creative, competitive America is the answer to a changing world, not trade wars that would close doors, create greater barriers, and destroy millions of jobs...We should always remember: Protectionism is destructionism.”
www.forbes.com/sites/taxnot...
www.forbes.com/sites/taxnot...
Ronald Reagan Would Have Hated Trump’s Tariffs
Joseph J. Thorndike contrasts Ronald Reagan’s approach to international trade with the tariff policy of the Trump administration.
www.forbes.com
August 5, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Ronald Reagan: “A creative, competitive America is the answer to a changing world, not trade wars that would close doors, create greater barriers, and destroy millions of jobs...We should always remember: Protectionism is destructionism.”
www.forbes.com/sites/taxnot...
www.forbes.com/sites/taxnot...
August 4, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Reposted by Joe Thorndike
The New York Times told us the Democrats lost the last election because people hate inflation, but now they are telling us that they can't score political points by promising to bring prices down by getting rid of the Trump tariffs substack.com/home/post/p-...
Remember When the Democrats Lost the Election Because People Hate Inflation? The New York Times Doesn’t
As usual, the New York Times gets things exactly wrong in a piece headlined “Trump’s Tariffs are Making Money.
substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The New York Times told us the Democrats lost the last election because people hate inflation, but now they are telling us that they can't score political points by promising to bring prices down by getting rid of the Trump tariffs substack.com/home/post/p-...
A good point. And pretty much the same argument that made income taxes popular in the late 19th and early 20th century.
NYT gets it backward www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b.... Tariff revenue means Democrats can promise a big tax cut, paid for by taxes on the rich.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 5:18 PM
A good point. And pretty much the same argument that made income taxes popular in the late 19th and early 20th century.
Did anyone seriously think that corporate America would just eat the tariffs forever? That's not how companies work. (Or tariffs, FWIW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...
August 3, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Did anyone seriously think that corporate America would just eat the tariffs forever? That's not how companies work. (Or tariffs, FWIW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...
Tariffs were hard to quit in the late 19th and early 20th century, too. And yet they managed.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...
Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Tariffs were hard to quit in the late 19th and early 20th century, too. And yet they managed.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...
These doom scenario predictions about AI would be more convincing if they weren’t so obviously designed as clickbait.
www.inc.com/bruce-crumle...
www.inc.com/bruce-crumle...
These 40 Jobs May Be Replaced by AI. These 40 Probably Won't
A new Microsoft report ranks 80 professions by their risk of being replaced by AI tools. Microsoft study identified jobs most, and least affected by AI.
www.inc.com
August 2, 2025 at 10:45 PM
These doom scenario predictions about AI would be more convincing if they weren’t so obviously designed as clickbait.
www.inc.com/bruce-crumle...
www.inc.com/bruce-crumle...
Most regular folks hate bureaucracy but they also like (or at least depend on) institutions, even if they don’t know it.
Most regular folks don't wake up worrying about institutions. They have more immediate concerns.
But once you live through a period when core institutions fail, you start paying attention, and historical memory is rebuilt for a time.
We're going through one of those moments now.
But once you live through a period when core institutions fail, you start paying attention, and historical memory is rebuilt for a time.
We're going through one of those moments now.
August 2, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Most regular folks hate bureaucracy but they also like (or at least depend on) institutions, even if they don’t know it.
“The move to reduce these so-called hallucinations is seen as crucial to increase the use of AI tools across industries such as law and health, which require accurate information…”
I’m curious about the industries where accuracy is irrelevant.
I’m curious about the industries where accuracy is irrelevant.
The ‘hallucinations’ that haunt AI: why chatbots struggle to tell the truth https://on.ft.com/4lGGXZn
The ‘hallucinations’ that haunt AI: why chatbots struggle to tell the truth
Tech groups step up efforts to reduce fabricated responses but eliminating them appears impossible
on.ft.com
July 22, 2025 at 1:14 PM
“The move to reduce these so-called hallucinations is seen as crucial to increase the use of AI tools across industries such as law and health, which require accurate information…”
I’m curious about the industries where accuracy is irrelevant.
I’m curious about the industries where accuracy is irrelevant.
The 2017 tax bill was bad for Republican politicians. The 2025 law could easily be worse.
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
Grim Polls for the GOP Budget Bill | Tax Notes
Joseph J. Thorndike examines the results of several polls that report voter support of and opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
www.taxnotes.com
July 3, 2025 at 1:55 PM
The 2017 tax bill was bad for Republican politicians. The 2025 law could easily be worse.
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...
Not sure I buy these predictions, but if they’re even partly right, this will be a transformative political event.
CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs - The Wall Street Journal
CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs - The Wall Street Journal
July 3, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Not sure I buy these predictions, but if they’re even partly right, this will be a transformative political event.
CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs - The Wall Street Journal
CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs - The Wall Street Journal