Jiajun Han
@jiajunhan.bsky.social
Liberté, égalité, et fraternité.
Pinned
Jiajun Han
@jiajunhan.bsky.social
· Nov 21
Identification, I.e. pointing at the causal estimand
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Reposted by Jiajun Han
the price of populism
"By 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%"
Read the Stanford report:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Read the Stanford report:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Other
siepr.stanford.edu
November 25, 2025 at 7:43 PM
the price of populism
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Starmer and Reeves run probably the most economically left-wing government of past five decades and yet bleeding support to its left thanks to dumb strategy www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Starmer and Reeves run probably the most economically left-wing government of past five decades and yet bleeding support to its left thanks to dumb strategy www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
"a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent"
and the US officials who keep saying so are repeating Russian propaganda
and the US officials who keep saying so are repeating Russian propaganda
NEW: Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent. Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather. ⬇️🧵
November 27, 2025 at 10:44 AM
"a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent"
and the US officials who keep saying so are repeating Russian propaganda
and the US officials who keep saying so are repeating Russian propaganda
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Britain’s government seems immobilised by its peril. Compounding earlier mistakes, its budget has failed utterly to lessen the country’s economic and political vulnerability econ.st/4rnW7px
November 26, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Britain’s government seems immobilised by its peril. Compounding earlier mistakes, its budget has failed utterly to lessen the country’s economic and political vulnerability econ.st/4rnW7px
Reposted by Jiajun Han
@statacorp.bsky.social package #graphfunctions has been bumped to v1.6 and provides a modular grammar-of-graphics toolkit for data visualizations.
⭐shapes: generate, transform, round edges
⭐arcs
⭐radscatter
⭐labsplit
⭐catspline
More info:
github.com/asjadnaqvi/s...
Up soon on SSC!
⭐shapes: generate, transform, round edges
⭐arcs
⭐radscatter
⭐labsplit
⭐catspline
More info:
github.com/asjadnaqvi/s...
Up soon on SSC!
November 24, 2025 at 11:19 PM
@statacorp.bsky.social package #graphfunctions has been bumped to v1.6 and provides a modular grammar-of-graphics toolkit for data visualizations.
⭐shapes: generate, transform, round edges
⭐arcs
⭐radscatter
⭐labsplit
⭐catspline
More info:
github.com/asjadnaqvi/s...
Up soon on SSC!
⭐shapes: generate, transform, round edges
⭐arcs
⭐radscatter
⭐labsplit
⭐catspline
More info:
github.com/asjadnaqvi/s...
Up soon on SSC!
January cover story of The Atlantic. 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Extensive profile of RFK Jr., including many fascinating interviews, from @michaelscherer.bsky.social:
The Most Powerful Man in Science
Why is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. so convinced he’s right?
www.theatlantic.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:37 AM
January cover story of The Atlantic. 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Reposted by Jiajun Han
For a decade, Russia has been seeking to divide Europe and America, to undermine NATO and weaken the transatlantic alliance. This peace plan, if accepted, will achieve that goal.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
The Murky Plan That Ensures a Future War
Who will benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
www.theatlantic.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:05 PM
For a decade, Russia has been seeking to divide Europe and America, to undermine NATO and weaken the transatlantic alliance. This peace plan, if accepted, will achieve that goal.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
This is a story about how America’s world-leading cancer and dementia research system was destroyed by frauds and naifs who broke the law.
There must be consequences.
There must be consequences.
Some incredible details in this piece
*one DOGE faction was planning the future of the US government at a venture capital firm
*illegally communicating on Signal to avoid transparency laws was deeply embedded into organizational culture to be taken for granted
*one DOGE faction was planning the future of the US government at a venture capital firm
*illegally communicating on Signal to avoid transparency laws was deeply embedded into organizational culture to be taken for granted
November 22, 2025 at 10:12 PM
This is a story about how America’s world-leading cancer and dementia research system was destroyed by frauds and naifs who broke the law.
There must be consequences.
There must be consequences.
Reposted by Jiajun Han
This is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future. In the meantime, it benefits unnamed Russian and American investors, at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump Has a Recipe for War and Corruption, Not Peace
Who would benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
www.theatlantic.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:11 AM
This is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future. In the meantime, it benefits unnamed Russian and American investors, at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
“Without 14th Amendment, various figures would not have gained U.S. citizenship…
— “Second lady *Usha Vance*, born to Indian immigrants”
— Marco Rubio, Cuban parents
— Kash Patel, Indian parents
— Mehmet Oz, Turkish parents
— Nikki Haley, Indian parents
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
— “Second lady *Usha Vance*, born to Indian immigrants”
— Marco Rubio, Cuban parents
— Kash Patel, Indian parents
— Mehmet Oz, Turkish parents
— Nikki Haley, Indian parents
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
November 21, 2025 at 4:55 PM
“Without 14th Amendment, various figures would not have gained U.S. citizenship…
— “Second lady *Usha Vance*, born to Indian immigrants”
— Marco Rubio, Cuban parents
— Kash Patel, Indian parents
— Mehmet Oz, Turkish parents
— Nikki Haley, Indian parents
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
— “Second lady *Usha Vance*, born to Indian immigrants”
— Marco Rubio, Cuban parents
— Kash Patel, Indian parents
— Mehmet Oz, Turkish parents
— Nikki Haley, Indian parents
www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
How Americans elected a felony-obsessed putin's lackey to occupy the White House.
We have a US administration trying to bully Ukrainians into accepting Russia’s proposal that their sovereignty be undone. Aside from the naked injustice of this, there are five basic practical reasons why it would make the world far more dangerous.
(video)
snyder.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
(video)
snyder.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
The Putin-Witkoff Plan Worsens the War
Five Reasons the US should not help Russia subjugate Ukraine
snyder.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:18 AM
How Americans elected a felony-obsessed putin's lackey to occupy the White House.
Despicable.
With his ultimatum that Ukraine surrender to Russia, Trump finally wins a prize:
The Neville Chamberlain award for betraying peace, freedom, and justice.
The Neville Chamberlain award for betraying peace, freedom, and justice.
November 22, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Despicable.
Reposted by Jiajun Han
America is in a new era, where rules are skirted and corruption is tolerated. It did not start with Donald Trump. But he has upped the tempo and removed constraints that once held others back econ.st/3JVVAKH
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
America is in a new era, where rules are skirted and corruption is tolerated. It did not start with Donald Trump. But he has upped the tempo and removed constraints that once held others back econ.st/3JVVAKH
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Wrote about Man Panic: The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
economist.com/britain/2025...
from The Economist
economist.com/britain/2025...
from The Economist
The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
But some manly problems are undeniable
economist.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Wrote about Man Panic: The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
economist.com/britain/2025...
from The Economist
economist.com/britain/2025...
from The Economist
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Is it a threat to free speech when the President of the United States threatens to yank the broadcast license of a channel whose reporters are asking him challenging questions?
I ask because I feel like there used to be tons of pundits worried about free speech. Where'd they go?
I ask because I feel like there used to be tons of pundits worried about free speech. Where'd they go?
Trump in response to an Epstein question: "ABC, your company, your crappy company is one of the perpetrators. I think the license should be taken away from ABC because your news is so fake and so wrong. And we have a great commissioner, a chairman, who should take a look at that."
November 18, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Is it a threat to free speech when the President of the United States threatens to yank the broadcast license of a channel whose reporters are asking him challenging questions?
I ask because I feel like there used to be tons of pundits worried about free speech. Where'd they go?
I ask because I feel like there used to be tons of pundits worried about free speech. Where'd they go?
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Developing a step-by-step guide to leniency designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures, from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Michal Kolesár www.nber.org/papers/w34473
November 18, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Developing a step-by-step guide to leniency designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures, from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Michal Kolesár www.nber.org/papers/w34473
Reposted by Jiajun Han
We also show, (as @instrumenthull.bsky.social loves to show!), that UJIVE can be used to assess the compiler characteristics of the leniency design. If the compliers look similar to the full sample on observables, that's evidence your treatment effects may generalize beyond the complier population.
November 17, 2025 at 3:06 PM
We also show, (as @instrumenthull.bsky.social loves to show!), that UJIVE can be used to assess the compiler characteristics of the leniency design. If the compliers look similar to the full sample on observables, that's evidence your treatment effects may generalize beyond the complier population.
Reposted by Jiajun Han
"Trump treats American potency as a wasting asset, drawing it down over and over to satisfy his personal whims and ideas," says Thomas Wright. But sooner or later, power will drain away
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
What If ‘America First’ Appears to Work?
“Might makes right” is still wrong for America, but opposing it just got harder.
www.theatlantic.com
November 18, 2025 at 2:23 PM
"Trump treats American potency as a wasting asset, drawing it down over and over to satisfy his personal whims and ideas," says Thomas Wright. But sooner or later, power will drain away
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
I spent October traveling to schools throughout the South talking to students about American history. What I found were young people who understand we can tell a story that includes both the positive and the negative. As one 8th grader in Memphis said, “Doesn’t seem that hard, just say both things.”
Tell Students the Truth About American History
We owe it to Americans of all ages to be honest about the country’s past, including its contradictions.
www.theatlantic.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:57 PM
I spent October traveling to schools throughout the South talking to students about American history. What I found were young people who understand we can tell a story that includes both the positive and the negative. As one 8th grader in Memphis said, “Doesn’t seem that hard, just say both things.”
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Please stop clustering on judge! And don’t report the first-stage F-stat, it isn’t necessary with UJIVE.
November 17, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Please stop clustering on judge! And don’t report the first-stage F-stat, it isn’t necessary with UJIVE.
Reposted by Jiajun Han
New paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár on leniency/judge IV designs.
This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
November 17, 2025 at 3:06 PM
New paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár on leniency/judge IV designs.
This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵
arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
Reposted by Jiajun Han
The times are not currently listed on the website: 10 am to 4 pm EST on both days. After each 90 minute lecture, a 30 minute Q&A.
Hope to see you then!
Hope to see you then!
The next online installment of ESTIMATE: The Reduced Form is coming on Dec 11-12. I've continued to unify and expand regression-based methods to apply to exit, non-binary treatments, DDD, discrete outcomes, and more.
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
All proceeds to the MSU economics PhD program.
econ.msu.edu/academics/es...
Estimate Reduced Form | Economics | Michigan State University
econ.msu.edu
November 16, 2025 at 7:26 PM
The times are not currently listed on the website: 10 am to 4 pm EST on both days. After each 90 minute lecture, a 30 minute Q&A.
Hope to see you then!
Hope to see you then!
Reposted by Jiajun Han
Ducking broad tax rises is basically another massive fiscal gamble by a government which has taken quite a few already and lost pretty much all of them www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Labour’s tax-and-spend policy has been dominated by wild gambling
In the budget on November 26th that must change
www.economist.com
November 14, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Ducking broad tax rises is basically another massive fiscal gamble by a government which has taken quite a few already and lost pretty much all of them www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
November 13, 2025 at 1:32 PM
NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
Reposted by Jiajun Han
The EU is cracking down on issuing visas to Russians. On one hand that's common sense, for security and moral reasons. But don't lose sight of the argument that there is something dangerous about blaming the crimes of a regime on a people themselves living in a dictatorship.
My Charlemagne:
My Charlemagne:
Europe is cracking down on Russian tourists
That is partly necessary—and partly alarming
www.economist.com
November 13, 2025 at 6:49 PM
The EU is cracking down on issuing visas to Russians. On one hand that's common sense, for security and moral reasons. But don't lose sight of the argument that there is something dangerous about blaming the crimes of a regime on a people themselves living in a dictatorship.
My Charlemagne:
My Charlemagne: