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Reposted by Ian Wolfe

Every Lot Baltimore @everylotbaltimore.bsky.social · 2d

257 S DURHAM ST, BALTIMORE, MD, 21231

Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

It's sad too, because a competent propagandist could accurately have just said something like "auto thefts are still up from three years ago." But that would have required opening more than a single PDF and Vincent has Fells Point bars to go patrol for Teens Existing b-roll. bsky.app/profile/ianm...

Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, the argument is not that auto theft is at an acceptable level by any means. We're still recovering from the actual spike two years ago when the Kia/Hyundai vulnerability turned joyriding into an activity anyone could do. But at the same time, the trend line is clearly now down, not up.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, the argument is not that auto theft is at an acceptable level by any means. We're still recovering from the actual spike two years ago when the Kia/Hyundai vulnerability turned joyriding into an activity anyone could do. But at the same time, the trend line is clearly now down, not up.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

We all know Fox's reporting is just pushing a narrative of fear, but this is a particularly bad case.
The author had to intentionally ignore the more meaningful, longer-term stats on the *very same page*, just so he could pluck the numbers he wanted to create an illusion of rising auto thefts.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

The article grudgingly concedes that auto theft citywide is down 31% year to date.
What it fails to mention is that even the Citywide 7-day is down (-27%), as well as the 28-day (-29%). Some spike!
Oh and *every single* district is down by double digits for the year.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

(The point there is just you just can't read much into 7-day year-over-year comparisons one way or the other. It is as meaningless that Southern was down 67% as Northwest being up 62%. In a week, there is so much statistical noise and random stuff that can happen, it just doesn't tell you much.)

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

Then there's the cherry data district cherry picking.
In the same weekly report with these three "spikes," Southeast auto theft "spiked" down -22%.
Northeast -40%
Northern -25%
Western -57%
Southwest -64%
And last but not least, Southern district auto thefts "spiked" down -67%!

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

Worst of the bunch, Northwest is up 62% (!).
From 9/28-10/4/24 there were 8 reported auto thefts in NW, and from 9/28-10/4/25 there were 13. That *is* 62%. It's also 5 incidents.
Oh and of course that district's 28 day is DOWN 18%. And year to date, Northwest has declined 16%.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

Then there's Central. Central is up 30% from the previous year's same week, which is an increase of three (3) incidents over the same week last year.
But Central is also flat (0%) in the 28-day period, and DOWN a full 38% (166 fewer incidents) year to date.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

To start, Eastern is up 12% on the 7-day! Do you know how many incidents this "spike" amounts to?
One reported auto theft: there were 8 in 2024, and 9 in 2025.
Meanwhile Eastern is DOWN 19% on the 28-day period and DOWN 29% year to date.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 2d

This Fox article today might belong in the hall of fame of bad faith use of statistics.
The headline cites a "spike in car thefts in some Baltimore districts" and the body goes on to point out some crazy increases: 62% in Northwest! 30% in Central! Sounds like a real City in Crisis, right? A 🧵:

Fox Baltimore headline: Man's car stolen from garage amidst spike in car thefts in some Baltimore districts

Recent data from the Baltimore Police Department indicates a rise in auto thefts in three of the city's nine districts over a seven-day period, with a 30% increase in the Central district, 62% in the Northwest district and 12% in the Eastern district.

Last week, five districts reported increases.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 15d

Yeah. I’m tapering off this right now (was barely taking a clinically significant dose too) and the brain zaps are wild.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 15d

But any councilperson can submit RPP modification bills if they so choose. It's not inequitable for Blanchard to utilize an ability that they all have. Maybe I misunderstood the point.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 15d

I did not really understand either of their objections to this piddling RPP modification bill. The 5th amendment - really?!

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 15d

sounded like unanimous on voice yeah

Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · 29d

So grateful for this one. We’ve had a real Air Bud situation with a mechanic working on the 895 overpasses for months now.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 11

Is ebook an option? It’s on libgen in epub format.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 9

So to summarize, there is no citywide trend of spiking shoplifting, SED is an extreme outlier. The spike is mainly from a few businesses, but not all the same one. What gives? BPD district policy change? Store policy changes? Actual dramatic crime increase? Idk, but it's been bugging me all year.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 9

Looking at the locations, it's driven by a small group of very large increases. Most are the sites of gas stations, including 4 RoFos, but Walgreens in Middle East and 7-Eleven at Canton Crossing by far lead the pack. These top 8 locations alone account for 276 extra incidents.

Graph showing the change in shoplifting reports by the recorded block, according to BPD incident reports.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 9

The much higher trend has been clear all year, and it's only in the last few months that they began to track closer. But compare Central District, which leads the city in total incidents, but has not seen a similar change. In fact, it's down 10% YOY.

Graph showing SED Shoplifting Reports by Month

Graph showing CED Shoplifting Reports by Month

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 9

Free story idea for someone to look into: what the heck is happening with shoplifting in Southeast District? It's had 262 extra reports, for a 72% increase YOY, way out of line with the other districts. SED alone tips the whole citywide stat into an increase (by 119 incidents).🧵

BPD crime stats screenshot showing a 72% increase in shoplifting in Southeast District YOY.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 8

The third bill, scheduled for September 18th, is no less significant. It will permit the construction of apartment buildings up to six stories high using a single staircase. This makes it possible to build much more creatively, and densely, on small or awkward parcels.

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 8

The bills up in committee this week are big. 25-0064 increases the building space flexibility in all residential zones. 25-0065 eliminates ALL parking minimums citywide. Please, if you haven't yet, smash that link and tell the council: support these bills. secure.everyaction.com/81AL1uY6R0a7...

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · Sep 7

but we need *more* car access to OTM

Every Lot Baltimore @everylotbaltimore.bsky.social · Sep 7

444 OLD TOWN MALL, BALTIMORE, MD, 21202

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Ian Wolfe @ianmwolfe.bsky.social · May 27

Yeah, it made sense to stage things over there, since the entire urbanized area essentially ended at Hampstead Hill, even 30+ years after the park was donated. You had nothing but space.

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