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The populist shadow hanging over central banks and QE

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 3d

Challenging times for central banks! A good overview with a lot of food for thought by Sam Fleming, Claire Jones and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times.

"The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities."

www.ft.com/content/055f...

The massive bond purchases are being unwound at a time of fierce political criticism of the monetary authorities. The controversy could limit options in future crises

Europeans need to learn to love risk

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 5d

Indeed, Europeans need to learn to love risk. Although I do not fully agree with Martin Sandbu in his opinion piece, his basic argument is certainly right, in my opinion.

www.ft.com/content/1100...

A culture of financial caution stymies innovation and prevents the continent from competing with the US and China

Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 12d

A very interesting analysis of Argentina's current problems by Brad Setser and Stephen Paduano.

And the ending is great...

www.ft.com/content/5f4b...

The US Treasury needs to get Argentina on a better policy path before it blows through the Exchange Stabilization Fund

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 12d

Heute ist unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer erschienen. Der Barometerwert erhöht sich langsam, aber stetig.

Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) legt im September deutlich zu und liegt nun bei 96,3 Punkten, nach 92 Punkten im August.

The international progressives: A source of hope for the world trading system

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 14d

For anyone interested in world trade, I highly recommend this excellent text by Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics).

"The likely future is a combination of most nations persevering with pragmatism and grit under the existing trading system"

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Leave it to the Swiss to find the only effective response to President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Swatch, their famous eponymous watch company, issued a special commemorative watch with the three an...

www.piie.com

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 23d

While I only partly agree with The Economist, this article certainly has a point!

"Would an all-out trade war be better? Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own"

www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Would an all-out trade war be better?

Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own

www.economist.com

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 26d

Many people are unaware of this – not only abroad, but, surprisingly, also in Switzerland!

The SNB "has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, ...Its stake in Apple alone is worth nearly $10bn and its stake in Nvidia is more than $11bn."

www.ft.com/content/60a9...

Switzerland’s US tech ‘whale’

Swiss National Bank has more than $42bn invested in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 26d

We are looking forward to this webinar!

Opportunities and challenges of better interactions between military and civilian R&D

Dominique Foray (Prof EPFL, Chair of Economics and Management of Innovation; Swiss Science Council)

⏲️ Sep 29, 12.00-13.00 CEST

REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/eNP82ZTuwV

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 27d

I am looking forward to this webinar with Spyros Andreopoulos, whom I appreciate a lot!

Central Banks and the End of Stability (September 17, 12:00 – 13:00 CEST) with Spyros Andreopoulos (Thin Ice Macroeconomics, Ex-ECB, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley).

REGISTRATION: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · 29d

This does not look sustainable!

"France and the UK have increased public spending on over-65s more steeply than most other countries"

"France and Britain are in thrall to pensioners" by John Burn-Murdoch:

www.ft.com/content/d419...

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 11

Welcome back, inflation?

In the United States, inflation in August was somewhat higher than most expected (0.4%).

One should always be careful. But data for August reinforced the view that the US might have entered an episode with stagflationary characteristics.

www.bls.gov/news.release...

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 10

Interesting developments in Switzerland. The SNB starts to publish a summary of its monetary policy meetings. It will be interesting to observe how extensive these summaries are and whether/how these summaries will be discussed in public and among market participants.

www.snb.ch/en/publicati...

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 8

Wir freuen uns auf dieses Webinar mit Dr. Adhurim Haxhimusa von der Fachhochschule Graubünden.

Webinar: Das Swiss REco Dashboard: Regionalwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Echtzeit messen

⏲️ 25. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr

💻 Online

ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/T6yAmpLR59

www.bls.gov/news.release...

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5

Die Arbeitslosigkeit hat sich leicht erhöht. Mit 4,3 Prozent ist sie aber immer noch niedrig.

Eine Zinssenkung im September dürfte so gut wie sicher sein. Die Rufe nach weiteren Zinssenkungen dürften mit dem heutigen Bericht wohl Auftrieb erhalten - zumindest bis zum nächsten Inflationsbericht!

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5

Der US-Arbeitsmarkt sendet wenig überraschend weitere enttäuschende Signale aus. Wie das BLS heute berichtet, wurden im August nur 22'000 neue Jobs geschaffen. Im Juni kam es (abwärtsrevidiert) sogar zu einem Verlust an Stellen und im Juli nur zu 79'000 neuen Stellen (leicht aufwärtsrevidiert).

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 5

Deutsche Wirtschaft: Der Aufschwung ist aufgeschoben, aber hoffentlich nicht aufgehoben.

Alle Institute gehen für das laufende Jahr nur von einem minimalen Wachstum der Wirtschaftsleistung aus.

Für das Jahr 2026 gibt es Hoffnung auf einen Aufschwung mit Prognosen zwischen 0,8 und 1,7 Prozent.

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3

For anyone interested in the US economy, I highly recommend this analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale: "Short-Run Effects of 2025 Tariffs So Far"

In addition to interesting numbers, the analysis is well-written with a lot of nuances.

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3

Great opinion piece by Ngaire Woods (Oxford)!

"The ancient Greeks recognized that real learning came not from entertaining, impressing, or catering to students, but from challenging them to question their beliefs."

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

How to Use AI Without Losing Our Minds

Ngaire Woods explains how to maintain our cognitive abilities in a world of instant answers and constant distractions.

www.project-syndicate.org

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Sep 3

Was macht die Schweiz so innovativ?

Bin gespannt auf unser Webinar morgen mit Lukas Schmid von Avenir Suisse, der sich intensiv mit der Innovationslandschaft Schweiz beschäftigt.

⏲️ 4. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr

💻 Online, Meetinglink wird zugeschickt

ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/ApAYJndVxe

The Weaponized World Economy

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 30

It's worth reading this article, 'The Weaponized World Economy,' in Foreign Affairs carefully.

"The Weaponized World Economy: Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion" by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman.

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

When Washington announced a “framework deal” with China in June, it marked a silent shifting of gears in the global political economy. This was not the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imagi...

www.foreignaffairs.com

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 27

Unser DIW-Konjunkturbarometer ist minimal zurückgegangen.

„Die Lage der deutschen Wirtschaft bleibt vorerst durchzogen, auch weil die Weltwirtschaft schwächelt und die internationalen Handelsbeziehungen unberechenbar geworden sind“, resümiert Konjunkturexperte Guido Baldi.

Opinion | What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 26

One can watch how the independence of the Fed is slowly eroding. Highly worrying. Jason Furman is right!

What the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court and Senate Need to Do After Lisa Cook’s Firing

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...

www.nytimes.com

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 26

Das heutige Produktivitätshäppchen: Wertschöpfung und Industrieproduktion – Strukturwandel schreitet voran

open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 26

Die Geopolitik und die Weltwirtschaft lassen uns manchmal rat- und fassungslos zurück.

Was bedeutet diese neue Welt für Zentralbanken? Ich freue mich sehr auf dieses Webinar mit Spyros Andreopoulos am 17. Sep.

Zentralbanken und das Ende der Stabilität

Anmeldung: forms.office.com/r/WZhvdLR7Ls

Opinion | I’ve Seen What Happens When a Country Messes With Data. America, Beware.

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 24

Indeed, official statistics are like a mirror for a society. Good article by Georgiou. He ran the national statistical office of Greece from August 2010 to August 2015.

"I’ve Seen What Happens When a Country Messes With Data. America, Beware." by Andreas V. Georgiou

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/o...

www.nytimes.com

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 22

Ich freue mich auf dieses Webinar mit Lukas Schmid von Avenir Suisse.

Mehr Geld, mehr Innovation?

⏲️ 4. September, 12:00 – 13:00 Uhr

💻 Online

Unsere Webinare sind öffentlich und dürfen auch mit provokativen Aussagen eine konstruktive Diskussion auslösen

ANMELDUNG: forms.office.com/r/ApAYJndVxe

Trump vs. the U.S. Economy

Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 20

For anyone interested in the U.S. economy, I highly recommend this podcast with Natasha Sarin (president of the Budget Lab at Yale) and the host Ezra Klein. In general, there's much to learn from her, both from academic and policy-oriented perspectives.

open.spotify.com/episode/61Vq...

The Ezra Klein Show · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Guido Baldi @gbaldi.bsky.social · Aug 20

Trump stellt die Resilienz der Schweizer Wirtschaft auf die Probe

Heute ist bei FOCUS online mein Kommentar zu den Auswirkungen der US-Zölle auf die Schweizer Wirtschaft erschienen. Der Kommentar ist auch im DIW-Wochenbericht veröffentlicht.

open.substack.com/pub/guidobal...