Ensembleator
@ensembleator.bsky.social
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
Rapid expansion of orange area in water vapour just W of central VI indicates an equally rapid onset of post-frontal subsidence. Just another clue we're in for it wind wise later this PM and evening #YVR and much of coastal SWBC and S VI
December 18, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Rapid expansion of orange area in water vapour just W of central VI indicates an equally rapid onset of post-frontal subsidence. Just another clue we're in for it wind wise later this PM and evening #YVR and much of coastal SWBC and S VI
Deepening sfc low at the W edge of the baroclinic leaf 45N 131W lifts ovr the Valley this PM. Rain hvy at times #YVR w/stg SE wind tdy bcmg stg SW wind w/a cold fnt PM. Rain ends abruptly. Bcmg cool ovnite. Vrbl skies Fri-Sat w/chc shwr or ❄️. Best chc ❄️hier elevs+Vly. Shwrs, slightly warmer Sun.
December 18, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Deepening sfc low at the W edge of the baroclinic leaf 45N 131W lifts ovr the Valley this PM. Rain hvy at times #YVR w/stg SE wind tdy bcmg stg SW wind w/a cold fnt PM. Rain ends abruptly. Bcmg cool ovnite. Vrbl skies Fri-Sat w/chc shwr or ❄️. Best chc ❄️hier elevs+Vly. Shwrs, slightly warmer Sun.
Looks like another shot at very heavy rain then power outages tomorrow PM/early eve for #YVR/Valley, as the modeled strength of the low for tomorrow has deepened somewhat run-to-run and it's also on a bad track for the LM, with a strong flow of cold air in its wake.
December 17, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Looks like another shot at very heavy rain then power outages tomorrow PM/early eve for #YVR/Valley, as the modeled strength of the low for tomorrow has deepened somewhat run-to-run and it's also on a bad track for the LM, with a strong flow of cold air in its wake.
Nice example of flow and stability. Stacked lenticulars in stratus over Cypress Mtn. Cloud subsides, and thins out as it returns to equilibrium level downwind then resumes forming lenticular cloud as the flow is forced over the next peak
December 17, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Nice example of flow and stability. Stacked lenticulars in stratus over Cypress Mtn. Cloud subsides, and thins out as it returns to equilibrium level downwind then resumes forming lenticular cloud as the flow is forced over the next peak
A cold fnt + a trailing upr trof making it interesting ovnite🍃. #YVR undr a brisk, unstbl WNW flow aloft tdy. Skies vrbl and winds abate this AM. Dvlpg wv 38N 151 W lifts NE to ovr the LM Thu PM. Rain this eve-Thu PM. Vry windy Thu PM. Hvy ❄️mtns. Unsettled Fri-Sat w/low snow lvls. Chc flurries City
December 17, 2025 at 1:21 PM
A cold fnt + a trailing upr trof making it interesting ovnite🍃. #YVR undr a brisk, unstbl WNW flow aloft tdy. Skies vrbl and winds abate this AM. Dvlpg wv 38N 151 W lifts NE to ovr the LM Thu PM. Rain this eve-Thu PM. Vry windy Thu PM. Hvy ❄️mtns. Unsettled Fri-Sat w/low snow lvls. Chc flurries City
Hard to stay asleep thru that #YVR! Peak gusts (as of 4 AM in km/h) Jericho Sailing Centre 89, Tsawwassen 80, YVR AP 76, Point Atkinson 102, Pitt Meadows 52, Abby AP 57. BC hydro reports 141 outages with 113508 customers out as of 4:50 AM. Widely distributed from Bowen Is to Deroche in the Valley
December 17, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Hard to stay asleep thru that #YVR! Peak gusts (as of 4 AM in km/h) Jericho Sailing Centre 89, Tsawwassen 80, YVR AP 76, Point Atkinson 102, Pitt Meadows 52, Abby AP 57. BC hydro reports 141 outages with 113508 customers out as of 4:50 AM. Widely distributed from Bowen Is to Deroche in the Valley
Dec 17, 0300Z at Van Harbour: 10.1 mm rain between 6-7. Heavy rain continues #YVR off and on next few hours. There's likely widespread street flooding in the city around uncleared drains.
December 17, 2025 at 3:21 AM
Dec 17, 0300Z at Van Harbour: 10.1 mm rain between 6-7. Heavy rain continues #YVR off and on next few hours. There's likely widespread street flooding in the city around uncleared drains.
Remarkable weather day yesterday if you haven't yet read the summary from ECCC: weather.gc.ca/warnings/wea...
Weather Summaries - Environment Canada
Weather summaries are issued to provide a post-event summary of a significant weather event. For example, an intense winter storm that produced heavy snowfalls. The Bulletin is issued as needed. Updat...
weather.gc.ca
December 16, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Remarkable weather day yesterday if you haven't yet read the summary from ECCC: weather.gc.ca/warnings/wea...
Lowland weather in coastal SWBC wet and breezy this week. Probably the most remarkable feature is the restoration of seasonal snowpack in the alpine through Friday. UK Met mdl thru Fri AM depicted. Higher parts of the N shore alpine looking at amts > 1 m.
December 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Lowland weather in coastal SWBC wet and breezy this week. Probably the most remarkable feature is the restoration of seasonal snowpack in the alpine through Friday. UK Met mdl thru Fri AM depicted. Higher parts of the N shore alpine looking at amts > 1 m.
#YVR is a cooler, still moist brisk SW flow aloft. Upr low 47N 138W lifting NE, w/a digging upr trof to its SW. Upr trof shifts ovr the cst Tue eve. Deep sfc low aims at the cst Wed PM. Bcmg cooler in its wake. Rain tapering off this eve, windy ovnite. Rain back Wed PM, endg Thu PM w/a cold fnt.
December 16, 2025 at 1:53 PM
#YVR is a cooler, still moist brisk SW flow aloft. Upr low 47N 138W lifting NE, w/a digging upr trof to its SW. Upr trof shifts ovr the cst Tue eve. Deep sfc low aims at the cst Wed PM. Bcmg cooler in its wake. Rain tapering off this eve, windy ovnite. Rain back Wed PM, endg Thu PM w/a cold fnt.
Pre frontal winds ground at Hope BC as temps rise to 15C:
YHE 15:00: Light Rain, 15C, wind W 45 gusts 91
YHE 15:00: Light Rain, 15C, wind W 45 gusts 91
December 15, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Pre frontal winds ground at Hope BC as temps rise to 15C:
YHE 15:00: Light Rain, 15C, wind W 45 gusts 91
YHE 15:00: Light Rain, 15C, wind W 45 gusts 91
Becoming rather gusty (w/a few shwrs dvlpg) #YVR now thru 3 PM as the sfc cold front approaches. Currently between Texada Island and the NW WA coast, moving E, fast.
December 15, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Becoming rather gusty (w/a few shwrs dvlpg) #YVR now thru 3 PM as the sfc cold front approaches. Currently between Texada Island and the NW WA coast, moving E, fast.
Brisk SE inflows of very moist air are ideal precipitation generators for the N Shore and especially the STS
December 15, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Brisk SE inflows of very moist air are ideal precipitation generators for the N Shore and especially the STS
Check this low level SE flow into the Halfmoon Peak radar, Sisters Islets just to the west corroborates with ESE winds 41 G 45 kt (76 G 83 km/h)
December 15, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Check this low level SE flow into the Halfmoon Peak radar, Sisters Islets just to the west corroborates with ESE winds 41 G 45 kt (76 G 83 km/h)
If you live at elev in the LM (ovr ~200m), i.e. #SFU, Westwood plateau, or the Vly E of Abby, you should be prepped for accumulating snow Fri-wknd. Lower lvls can anticipate a wintry mix. It's an onshr modified maritime arctic flow: not ideal for accumulation nr sea lvl #YVR but hier trrn: hammered
December 15, 2025 at 3:08 PM
SWBC undr a brisk, unstbl SW flow in the wake of a subtropical fnt. Cld fnt to the NW, tied to a low ovr N VI. Fnt sweeps thru #YVR eve. Vrbl skis tdy, chc shwr, brisk/gusty winds. Rain+windy Tue as a deep upr trof approaches the cst. Vrbl skies/cooler Wed. Rain/wind Thu. Cooler Fri, shwrs, chc ❄️
December 15, 2025 at 2:38 PM
SWBC undr a brisk, unstbl SW flow in the wake of a subtropical fnt. Cld fnt to the NW, tied to a low ovr N VI. Fnt sweeps thru #YVR eve. Vrbl skis tdy, chc shwr, brisk/gusty winds. Rain+windy Tue as a deep upr trof approaches the cst. Vrbl skies/cooler Wed. Rain/wind Thu. Cooler Fri, shwrs, chc ❄️
When fcasting snow for Van, it's often a question of elevation. At sea level, rain or mixed precipitation. As few as a few dozen m above the beach, and it's snow/wet snow. It's looking that way in the pre Xmas week. No major YVR strms, just wintry at times. Mtns get clobbered. Maybe E vly too.
December 14, 2025 at 4:12 PM
When fcasting snow for Van, it's often a question of elevation. At sea level, rain or mixed precipitation. As few as a few dozen m above the beach, and it's snow/wet snow. It's looking that way in the pre Xmas week. No major YVR strms, just wintry at times. Mtns get clobbered. Maybe E vly too.
#YVR undr a vry moist SW flow, pinned to a low 40N 147W. The low lifts NE to the BC Cariboo Mon AM, trailing a cold fnt ovr SWBC mid day. Flow cools/destabilizes in its wake. Rain, hvy at times ovnite, taperg Mon PM. Windy, esp Mon PM w/the cold fnt. Shwrs+cooler Tue. Wndy, shwrs+chc flurry Wed
December 14, 2025 at 3:48 PM
#YVR undr a vry moist SW flow, pinned to a low 40N 147W. The low lifts NE to the BC Cariboo Mon AM, trailing a cold fnt ovr SWBC mid day. Flow cools/destabilizes in its wake. Rain, hvy at times ovnite, taperg Mon PM. Windy, esp Mon PM w/the cold fnt. Shwrs+cooler Tue. Wndy, shwrs+chc flurry Wed
Low nr 45N 145 W + a deep trailing sys to the SW riding a vry stg subtrop jet to the NE intensify the Gulf of AK upr trof. The Wly component of wind increases, forcing the offshore plume ovhd SWBC by Sun AM. The next plume follows. Misty tdy #YVR. Rain this eve taprg to shwrs Mon PM, hvy at times.
December 13, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Low nr 45N 145 W + a deep trailing sys to the SW riding a vry stg subtrop jet to the NE intensify the Gulf of AK upr trof. The Wly component of wind increases, forcing the offshore plume ovhd SWBC by Sun AM. The next plume follows. Misty tdy #YVR. Rain this eve taprg to shwrs Mon PM, hvy at times.
Ensembles trending colder into Xmas week for SWBC. Is it a + snow signal? Def for the Mtns. The area will be undr a modified arctic flow with primarily W winds aloft and surface trajectories coming in off the ocean. Likely cold enuf aloft to generate wet flurries to sea lvl at times #YVR by Dec 17
December 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Ensembles trending colder into Xmas week for SWBC. Is it a + snow signal? Def for the Mtns. The area will be undr a modified arctic flow with primarily W winds aloft and surface trajectories coming in off the ocean. Likely cold enuf aloft to generate wet flurries to sea lvl at times #YVR by Dec 17
Upr low 46N 147W steering a plume of moisture that Xtends to 20 degrees S. Plume converts into a wrm fnt ovr N WA. A # of wvs track along the fntl boundary to the N maintaining moist SW flow into SWBC till Mon PM. Pds light rain tdy/Sat #YVR. Hvy rain erly Sun AM, PM pause. Hvy rain Sun eve-Mon AM
December 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Upr low 46N 147W steering a plume of moisture that Xtends to 20 degrees S. Plume converts into a wrm fnt ovr N WA. A # of wvs track along the fntl boundary to the N maintaining moist SW flow into SWBC till Mon PM. Pds light rain tdy/Sat #YVR. Hvy rain erly Sun AM, PM pause. Hvy rain Sun eve-Mon AM
Coldest December in the Yukon since 1984 at Faro. Sorry about the temps in F. Lowest T recorded so far -49.3C (-56.75 F) (not yet shown on graph). "And there sat Sam..."Please close that door.
It's fine in here...Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm.""
It's fine in here...Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm.""
December 11, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Coldest December in the Yukon since 1984 at Faro. Sorry about the temps in F. Lowest T recorded so far -49.3C (-56.75 F) (not yet shown on graph). "And there sat Sam..."Please close that door.
It's fine in here...Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm.""
It's fine in here...Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm.""