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Reposted by Ed Arnold

Daniel Keohane @keohanedan.bsky.social · 4d

Exactly, Putin is an opportunist, in other words.

And the West could reduce his opportunities…

Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 5d

I agree. I've seen Putin described as risk-averse; I don't think that's right. He takes risks that other leaders wouldn't, but only when he assesses that the likelihood of an effective response is low. The West has yet to change his assessment that he can keep pushing us back.

Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5d

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 4d

In a way, all permanent representations of EU member states in Brussels do 'political intelligence' but this is a whole different level.

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 4d

💥 Bombshell investigation: Hungary operated an illegal network of spies to infiltrate the EU institutions while Olivér Várhelyi, who's currently a European Commissioner, served as chief ambassador.

„Súlyos ügy volt” – így bukott le Orbánék titkos kémhálózata Brüsszelben

A 2010-es években a magyar hírszerzés elkezdett kémkedni Brüsszelben, és ehhez uniós intézményeknél dolgozó magyarokat próbált beszervezni. Viszont a magyar szolgálatok ezt annyira nyilvánvalóan és üg...

telex.hu

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Reposted by Ed Arnold

Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 4d

„Rearm Europe“ will fail unless EU members come together to work with partners to do whatever it takes to break the dependence on China on critical raw materials.
If anyone had doubts about the urgency, Beijing dispelled those very effectively today.

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 4d

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a clear term for the reports of drones overflying the bloc's critical infrastructure in recent months: "Hybrid warfare."

‘Hybrid warfare’ or more of the same? Getting a grip on drones across Europe.

UAV incursions have been happening for years, but they suddenly became a major emergency.

ow.ly

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4d

Bottom-line : this is basically doable and consequently the Russian taxpayer may soon be paying the costs of Western military support to Ukraine

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 4d

Belgium has laid out its red lines for using Russian assets to fund a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine.

This includes an agreement by EU countries to share all current and future risks related to the plan for an amount exceeding €170 billion.

Belgium lays out red lines on €140B Ukraine loan

Belgian PM Bart De Wever has suggested that the Commission’s scheme to leverage Russian frozen assets effectively amounts to confiscation.

ow.ly

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John R. Deni @johnrdeni.bsky.social · 5d

The Atlantic article reinforces this recent piece of analysis: "The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine" ip-quarterly.com/en/case-war-...

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Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 5d

“Almost half of respondents (48%) favoured the European Commission-coordinated defence investments, whereas 41% preferred the decision to be made nationally.”

www.euractiv.com/news/public-...

Public support for EU defence spending past its peak, says poll | Euractiv

Overall, 52% of Europe is unconvinced that the continent is prepared, in terms of military strength, for a prolonged conflict

www.euractiv.com

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Matthew Savill @mtsavill.bsky.social · 5d

So while there will be valuable military targets for US cruise missiles, I can't help but feel we are talking about a narrow set of high-value targets representing critical points in the supply chain, or particular niche capabilities, rather than seeking an impact across the war.

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Otto English @ottoenglish.bsky.social · 5d

Badenoch and Co see education only as a means to a massive income in some soul destroying career.

Devoid of imagination and the power of knowledge they view life entirely through the prism of the CV.

My advice always is to study what interests you and the rest will follow

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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 5d

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Screenshot from linked article, saying Western officials are puzzled, but they shouldn’t be.

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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 6d

And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here.

www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/...

And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong.

#AIisnotresearch

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 7d

Marine Le Pen has already toppled two French governments in less than a year. She didn’t even need to pull the trigger to kill off a third one.

Marine Le Pen smells blood as Macron runs out of options

The far-right National Rally is pushing for new elections.

www.politico.eu

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RUSI @rusi.bsky.social · 7d

Russia's playbook in Ukraine includes bombs, cyberattacks, misinformation, and supply disruptions—all aimed at healthcare resilience. As European militaries ready themselves for war, the UK risks making medical readiness an afterthought, write @edrusi.bsky.social and Si Horne.

European Medical Provision in Times of War

As European militaries ready themselves for war, creating resilient medical systems remains an afterthought for the UK.

www.rusi.org

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Ed Arnold @edrusi.bsky.social · 7d

Latest for @rusi.bsky.sociwwwon how medical provision would be impacted by war in Europe. Spoiler alert - not good, despite understanding by Med professionals on the challenge. Better sorting these out before war starts and thats on politicians...

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

European Medical Provision in Times of War

As European militaries ready themselves for war, creating resilient medical systems remains an afterthought for the UK.

www.rusi.org

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Reposted by Ed Arnold

James Ball @jamesrball.com · 7d

*gasp*

“Everyone thought we’d come in and there were going to be these huge costs we could cut away but there just aren’t,” said a third senior Reform cabinet member in Kent.

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Ben Stanley @benstanley.eu · 7d

And yet somehow Macron will still bounce from summit to summit doing his Stars In Their Eyes de Gaulle routine rather than looking like a blindfolded man in a room full of rakes

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 10d

The Kyiv Independent is proud to announce the U.S. premiere of its first full-length documentary, “Can You Hear Me? The Invisible Battles of Ukrainian Military Medics,” hosted in collaboration with the Embassies of Sweden and Ukraine.

Register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

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The News Agents @newsagents.bsky.social · 11d

"If you had to pick one man in the world who does not have a great reputation for bringing peace to the Middle East, it would have to be Tony Blair."

Why is the former Labour PM part of Trump's Palestine peace deal?

‘In a normal world, Tony Blair would not be at the centre of a Middle Eastern peace process’ | The News Agents

Tony Blair, best known to some for his involvement in George W Bush’s war in Iraq, could play a role in bringing peace to Palestine under Donald Trump’s new proposal. Is he the right man for the job?

www.thenewsagents.co.uk

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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 11d

"As important as the new bilateralism is, then, it is closely and crucially linked to broader relations between the UK and the EU as a whole"

@jannikewachowiak.bsky.social and @anandmenon.bsky.social analyse warmer UK-German relations for @internationalepolitik.de

ip-quarterly.com/en/new-chapt...

A New Chapter for UK-German Relations

The Kensington Treaty, signed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in July, has great potential. But, crucially, its success or otherwise will be linked to EU-UK...

ip-quarterly.com

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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 13d

Judging by their speeches, neither Trump nor Hegseth has paid the slightest attention to how actual wars are being fought in the actual world. The “war fighting” and “lethality” they plan is inside their own country and comes from conflicts inside their own minds.

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Ed Arnold @edrusi.bsky.social · 13d

The presentation is crass, but he does have a point. Militaries need to be much fitter than they are and it starts with leadership

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13d

This strikes me as optimistic given the timeline.

Assuming the yearly schedule means the next EU-UK summit is in May 2026, this means that the UK gov would be willing to settle the current EU-UK agenda at the same time while Labour (and the Tories) are battered by Reform in the local elections.

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 13d

There's a strange message coming from part of the UK government that all negotiations in the common understanding can be finished by mid 2026, which just shows how little some have learnt of previous failures that pace leaves imperfections.

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Ed Arnold @edrusi.bsky.social · 13d

Had a meeting with MoD yesterday and did say that while the activity had been focused on Baltics and Baltic Sea, should consider vulnerabilities in the High North....then a drone sighting over a NOR oil installation

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Ed Arnold @edrusi.bsky.social · 13d

Why??? Its like being 5 steps behind on whack a mole

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13d

According to various reports, allies from the Germany, France, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, the UK and also Ukraine have sent support in anti-Drone tech to Denmark in recent days.

UK deploys anti-drone tech to Denmark after airports hit

Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed the move for the first time in an interview with POLITICO at Labour conference on Monday.

www.politico.eu

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Ed Arnold @edrusi.bsky.social · 13d

Literally said this yesterday in ameeting with MoD - as NATO reinforces Copenhagen airport, we need to look at other vulnerabilities. Always reacting to Putins tune

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 13d

⚡️Unidentified drone spotted over Norwegian gas field, police investigating.

An unidentified drone was observed flying over the Equinor-operated Sleipner gas field in the North Sea on the evening of Sept. 29, according to Norwegian police, as reported by local media outlet VG.

Unidentified drone spotted over Norwegian gas field, police investigating

An unidentified drone was observed flying over the Equinor-operated Sleipner gas field in the North Sea on the evening of Sept. 29, according to Norwegian police, as reported by local media outlet VG.

kyivindependent.com

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