Author | Lightnews

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 23d

Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.

US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea

Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 29d

🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.

Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.

Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.

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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 24d

US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’

The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

www.reuters.com

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · 25d

Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.

The polls, however, have been postponed.

I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:

open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...

Spotify – Web Player

open.spotify.com

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 27

Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...

YouTube video by International Crisis Group

www.youtube.com

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 21

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

Registration:

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Monday 25 August, 9pm Washington, DCTuesday 26 August, 8am Bangkok | 9am Manila | 11am CanberraPlease register here if you would like to attend this online event.

Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · Aug 14

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Michael Mirasol @flipcritic.bsky.social · Aug 16

A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group

Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

Asia’s Military Modernisation: A Special Series | International Crisis Group

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Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

10. And stay tuned for more deeply researched reports and analysis in our series:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

The rapidly changing global security environment is raising concerns in Asia, prompting increased military spending and policy shifts from a number of countries in the region. This series explores how...

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

8. Lastly, deterrence needs to be complemented by diplomacy too.

Crisis management channels with Beijing remain important to navigate the unruly waves.

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation.

Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.

Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group

Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

5. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more distrust and even armed conflict.

The recent events near the Scarborough Shoal are a case in point.

But also regionally, the Indo-Pacific security architecture is in flux:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

4. The modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies.

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

3. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington.

It tries to balance the “hardware” of new equipment with the “software” of thinking beyond jungle warfare/counterterrorism towards coastal defence.

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Georgi Engelbrecht @duriandiaries.bsky.social · Aug 14

2. The shift is still a work in progress.

But under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to change gear from counterinsurgency to territorial and external defence.