Georgi Engelbrecht
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duriandiaries.bsky.social
Georgi Engelbrecht
@duriandiaries.bsky.social
1.1K followers 1.3K following 89 posts
Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup. Posts on Philippines, Peace Processes+Deterrence and Durians.
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Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.

Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.

Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.
www.reuters.com
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.

The polls, however, have been postponed.

I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:

open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Spotify – Web Player
open.spotify.com
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
8. Lastly, deterrence needs to be complemented by diplomacy too.

Crisis management channels with Beijing remain important to navigate the unruly waves.
7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation.

Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.
6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.
4. The modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies.
3. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington.

It tries to balance the “hardware” of new equipment with the “software” of thinking beyond jungle warfare/counterterrorism towards coastal defence.
2. The shift is still a work in progress.

But under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to change gear from counterinsurgency to territorial and external defence.
1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Reposted by Georgi Engelbrecht
As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world.

As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.