Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Dave Karpf @davekarpf.bsky.social · 7h

Everyone agrees that we're currently in a dotcom era-like AI bubble. People disagree what sort of bubble it is.

There are 3 stories one can tell about the dotcom crash: a startup story, a telecom story, and an accounting fraud story.

My take: it's giving Enron
open.substack.com/pub/davekarp...

It's Giving Enron

On the AI bubble, and the various echoes of the dotcom crash

open.substack.com

34 240 820

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 7h

the capital flight issue isn't substantiated is it? Or are you thinking they can just minimise in different ways so it'll be expensive Vs the tax take?

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 9h

"Dunbar's Number" is a zombie that lives forever in the science press it seems. Estimates of Dunbar's Number with 95% intervals, for a range of model specifications (from doi.org/10.1098/rsbl... ):

4 21 49

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Gabriel Geiger @gabrielgeiger.bsky.social · 10h

On a Saturday night I stumbled across something on the internet that made me feel like ****** my pants. A giant dataset of real surveillance operations targeting 1000s of people across nearly every country. Unraveling it and the mysterious company behind it has consumed 1.5 years of my life

5 78 210

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 7h

It would at least stop SOME of the junk - esp quant - research in crim journals from being published eg "oh but hey it's not causal...but here's how it is causal" and what you don't see are the 500 attempts to find p<0.05

(Plus those "matey" papers that somehow get published even though they're 💩)

4

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Kate Clancy @kateclancy.bsky.social · 12h

I am being asked to tell my department which pieces of lab equipment should be supported with backup power because they expect rolling blackouts and brownouts in 2026 due to increased energy demands from AI. In case you're wondering how my day is going.

23 520 1.2K

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 9h

Was any explanation given for the re-review? If not 💩💩💩

1

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 10h

I'd like "screamingly obvious Streisand effect" for 10 please.

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot.bsky.social · 12h

Read this sorry story about how an academic was axed from conference panels because he was deemed too interesting.

He was told no one on the panel was expected to air difficult opinions in front of MPs that could damage the oil and gas sector

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Academic axed from Labour conference panel for criticising energy policy

Sustainability expert was told panellists discussing North Sea oil and gas were meant to ‘agree entirely’ with each other

www.theguardian.com

1

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 1d

Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.

Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.

ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

41 440 1.4K

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Nick Brown @steamtraen.eu · 1d

Next time an institution tells you how seriously it takes research misconduct, ask them if it's *this* seriously. www.bmj.com/content/297/...

In 1916 the BMJ published an article about the work done by James Shearer, an American physician working in the British Army as a sergeant (because he had no British qualification). He had described a
"delineator" which was better than x rays for portraying gunshot wounds. This caused a sensation and a lot of interest — but on investigation the work was found to have been invented. The BMJ published a retraction, but Shearer was tried by court martial and sentenced to death by firing squad.

15 210 570

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 18h

New one for me (novelty far outweighs inconvenience) for train delay:

"Horses on the track"

a close up of a white horse wearing a bridle and reins

ALT: a close up of a white horse wearing a bridle and reins

media.tenor.com

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Eric Turkheimer @ent3c.bsky.social · 1d

In 2018, Charles Murray challenged me to a bet: "We will understand IQ genetically—I think most of the picture will have been filled in by 2025—there will still be blanks—but we’ll know basically what’s going on." It's now 2025, and I claim a win. I write about it in The Atlantic.

Your Genes Are Simply Not Enough to Explain How Smart You Are

Seven years ago, I took a bet with Charles Murray about whether we’d basically understand the genetics of intelligence by now.

www.theatlantic.com

8 110 290

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

Lol. Old remembered phone numbers. Hard wired into muscle memory from circular telephone dials.

2

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

Literal survivor bias in action.

2

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Georgia Tomova @georgiatomova.bsky.social · 1d

“Results trended towards significance”

Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 2d

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand:

"Statistical analysis used SPSS"

🏰meg⚔️ @Birthright Audiobook! @impavid.us · 5d

In honor of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand

I'll go first: Six page commercial lease.

1 6 26

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Sam Sims @drsamsims.bsky.social · 1d

Joel Mokyr won the Nobel prize today

Here is what I think he can teach us about improving schools:

samsims.education/2022/06/08/e...

Evidence, expertise, and the self-improving school system

(9 minute read) Rob Coe used his 2013 inaugural lecture at Durham to survey the evidence on long-run change in the performance of the English school system. He concluded that standards had not impr…

samsims.education

2 4

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

Hmmm I think many more of us would be dead because of all the killer radio waves?

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah, and beyond 50% it starts to be "you sure? Really?".

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

Yep. Heritability is what, 30-50% depending on which study(?) so that's a lot of room for other things.

1

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 1d

I'm still wondering whether I'm supposed to be impressed or skeptical about the sample size. The provenance etc is what it is.

And as to the earlier point about 19 studies - they extracted data from 19 different studies. It's not like a combination of data from those studies.

so: N=87

1

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 2d

Yes but I thought that they'd pulled data for the 87 twin pairs from those studies and ignored the rest?

1

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 2d

"No, you're teaching today"

Nico Trajtenberg 🐝 @nicotrajtenberg.bsky.social · 2d

Essays/assignments ready for marking

Marjorie James Keenan @unenthusiast.com · 2d

In honour of spooky month, share a 4 word horror story that only someone in your profession would understand.

rm -rf ~/

3

Alex Sutherland @criminologist.bsky.social · 2d

Better than

"Statistical analysis used vibes"

'cos that's still a thing too!

3

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Grodaeu @groda.eu · 2d

Media polls in Sweden. Basically *no one* except journalists and politicians is using X

Fredrik @fredrikwass.bsky.social · 2d

Det här kändes uppenbart redan innan den senaste Maktbarometern presenterades. En av mina tankar efter Svenskarna och internet veckan innan dess.
open.substack.com/pub/fredrikw...

2 14 42

Reposted by Alex Sutherland

Tom Joscelyn @tomjoscelyn.bsky.social · 2d

“I spent three nights and three days in federal custody. During that time, I was never told what I was charged with, was not allowed to shower despite being covered in tear gas and pepper spray, had no phone call to my family, and no access to an attorney.” - George Retes, U.S. citizen and veteran.

I’m a US citizen and a veteran. ICE arrested me for no reason.

Jailed for three days without an explanation or ability to notify anyone, George Retes argues the only path to healing starts with the government taking accountability for its actions.

newsletter.ofthebrave.org

350 6.1K 12K