Author | Lightnews

Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 11h

New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 11h

NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 3d

The way he mixes tempos and beats so seamlessly, layers so many different elements, yet never strays from his distinct fred again style is always amazing

Reposted by Brian Scheid

404 Media @404media.co · 4d

One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.

🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...

Libraries Scramble for Books After Giant Distributor Shuts Down

Why it might have been and may continue to be harder to get new releases from your local library.

www.404media.co

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 4d

The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 4d

Rough watch

Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 5d

Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 6d

Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 7d

When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 9d

When’s the last time they issued one of those fines?

Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 11d

US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 21d

Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 26d

JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · 28d

The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Oct 2

US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Oct 2

US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 30

After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 29

"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root

www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 26

This is on the band, though. Phish could play a different venue or even charge far less. Its certainly their right to wring every penny out of their fanbase and that’s what they’ve done for the past decade +

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 25

Bubble risk with US tech stocks seen as relatively high, but lower than 2021 fears: Deutsche Bank Research
"Back then, zero rates were one of the main justification for high tech valuations. That valuation prop ultimately got shattered and tech stocks slumped before AI came along."

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 23

Fed Vice Chair Bowman says Fed "at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward."

Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 23

One of the worst US dollar runs in decades could still get worse
"I don't think we've seen the bottom just yet," Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com

www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 18

Is the Fed quietly abandoning its 2% inflation target?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Brian Scheid @brianscheid.bsky.social · Sep 18

"The assumption is that the three cuts this year … are enough to head off labor market weakness," said @peark.es. "But they can't forecast more cuts with inflation still above target." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...

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Reposted by Brian Scheid

Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · Sep 17

Fed’s Powell: “We have a situation where we have two sided risk and that means there's no risk free path, and so it's quite a different difficult situation for policy makers. And it's not at all surprising to me that you have a range of views.”

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