Brian Scheid
@brianscheid.bsky.social
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Labor hoarding at least for now:
"Usually, employers turn to cutting hours before resorting to layoffs as laying off workers is more difficult than temporarily cutting hours in the hopes of business rebounding," says @danielzhao.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Usually, employers turn to cutting hours before resorting to layoffs as laying off workers is more difficult than temporarily cutting hours in the hopes of business rebounding," says @danielzhao.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 17, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Labor hoarding at least for now:
"Usually, employers turn to cutting hours before resorting to layoffs as laying off workers is more difficult than temporarily cutting hours in the hopes of business rebounding," says @danielzhao.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Usually, employers turn to cutting hours before resorting to layoffs as laying off workers is more difficult than temporarily cutting hours in the hopes of business rebounding," says @danielzhao.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The number of Americans working part-time jobs for economic reasons has surged to the highest level since early 2021, indicating that employers may be delaying an inevitable wave of layoffs
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
December 17, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The number of Americans working part-time jobs for economic reasons has surged to the highest level since early 2021, indicating that employers may be delaying an inevitable wave of layoffs
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
w/ @danielzhao.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org @prestonmui.bsky.social
US large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% YTD vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
December 17, 2025 at 1:59 PM
US large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% YTD vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
- S&P Dow Jones Indices
With rising expectations of a market reversal, institutions withdrew a net $43.40B from the stock market. Of that total, a net $22.03B... was sold during the third week of November, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, its largest weekly loss of the month
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 16, 2025 at 8:58 PM
With rising expectations of a market reversal, institutions withdrew a net $43.40B from the stock market. Of that total, a net $22.03B... was sold during the third week of November, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, its largest weekly loss of the month
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The pause in the Fed's rate cutting cycle has pushed the struggling US dollar into a "range-bound, directionless phase" "Neither strongly bearish nor bullish," says Daniel Hathorn w/ @capitalcom.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 16, 2025 at 8:55 PM
The pause in the Fed's rate cutting cycle has pushed the struggling US dollar into a "range-bound, directionless phase" "Neither strongly bearish nor bullish," says Daniel Hathorn w/ @capitalcom.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
AI eliminating entry-level, tech jobs with effects still in early stages
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
AI eliminating entry-level, tech jobs with effects still in early stages
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It takes time for the technology to diffuse, and right now it really takes some level of specialized knowledge to apply the technology," said Lucas Hansen w/ CivAI
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
AI bubble worries, Fed moves may dash hopes for Santa Claus rally
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 4, 2025 at 2:28 PM
AI bubble worries, Fed moves may dash hopes for Santa Claus rally
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I continue to see markets as one materially negative catalyst away from a cyclical bear market taking shape"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Dearth of data boosts odds of most contested Fed rate decision ever
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
December 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Dearth of data boosts odds of most contested Fed rate decision ever
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The range of possibilities is very wide, and the direction of how things might go could come down to some personal biases and political views"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 24, 2025 at 2:25 PM
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 20, 2025 at 8:38 PM
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Beyond shaping market sentiment, any outsized post-earnings move in the stock could meaningfully sway the U.S. benchmark: Nvidia is the S&P 500’s largest constituent, and its 7.8% weight in the index is over 4.5 times that of the entire Materials sector."
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
November 19, 2025 at 2:35 PM
"Beyond shaping market sentiment, any outsized post-earnings move in the stock could meaningfully sway the U.S. benchmark: Nvidia is the S&P 500’s largest constituent, and its 7.8% weight in the index is over 4.5 times that of the entire Materials sector."
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 12, 2025 at 10:18 PM
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 5, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
November 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 30, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 28, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 27, 2025 at 1:42 PM
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 13, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
October 2, 2025 at 12:46 PM
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 29, 2025 at 2:03 PM
"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...