Andy Timm
@andytimm.bsky.social
Data scientist @ Grow Progress, testing Dem ads. Usually thinking about methods for survey weighting, efficient causal inference, or scalable Bayes. https://andytimm.github.io/
Pinned
Andy Timm
@andytimm.bsky.social
· Nov 25
Andy Timm - Better discrete choice modeling through the rank ordered logit
Or- a mathematically correct model of a psychologically coherent concept
andytimm.github.io
Bringing this over from twitter to pin;
New blog post from me- I walk through why MaxDiff isn’t a great way to model discrete choice, and discuss some alternatives 🧵
New blog post from me- I walk through why MaxDiff isn’t a great way to model discrete choice, and discuss some alternatives 🧵
Reposted by Andy Timm
More like the tech wrong
June 6, 2025 at 1:32 AM
More like the tech wrong
Reposted by Andy Timm
Could. Not. Resist.
May 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Could. Not. Resist.
Reposted by Andy Timm
That new Bonica et al paper that's being passed around with claims that moderating hurts turnout doesn't have much turnout analysis in it at all, and certainty not enough for that conclusion
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
March 14, 2025 at 2:17 PM
That new Bonica et al paper that's being passed around with claims that moderating hurts turnout doesn't have much turnout analysis in it at all, and certainty not enough for that conclusion
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...
So I was thinking about MIT’s “missing semester” course (missing.csail.mit.edu) on skills needed but often not explicitly taught.
What are some stats/survey stats equivalents y’all find super important- that is, important for research/practice, not commonly classroom taught?
What are some stats/survey stats equivalents y’all find super important- that is, important for research/practice, not commonly classroom taught?
The Missing Semester of Your CS Education
missing.csail.mit.edu
February 17, 2025 at 3:24 PM
So I was thinking about MIT’s “missing semester” course (missing.csail.mit.edu) on skills needed but often not explicitly taught.
What are some stats/survey stats equivalents y’all find super important- that is, important for research/practice, not commonly classroom taught?
What are some stats/survey stats equivalents y’all find super important- that is, important for research/practice, not commonly classroom taught?
Reposted by Andy Timm
This is an absolute scandal.
Trump and Marco Rubio abandoned American workers and their families abroad, delaying waivers to provide for their safe return to the United States.
As these civil servants lost their possessions, housing, and money, Elon Musk was slandering them with bogus accusations.
Trump and Marco Rubio abandoned American workers and their families abroad, delaying waivers to provide for their safe return to the United States.
As these civil servants lost their possessions, housing, and money, Elon Musk was slandering them with bogus accusations.
Via Robbie Gramer at Politico, in a legal filing a USAID employee details trying to leave Kinshasa, Congo with their family and leaving their possessions behidn amid panic created by Trump and Musk's sudden shutdown of the agency
February 12, 2025 at 10:26 PM
This is an absolute scandal.
Trump and Marco Rubio abandoned American workers and their families abroad, delaying waivers to provide for their safe return to the United States.
As these civil servants lost their possessions, housing, and money, Elon Musk was slandering them with bogus accusations.
Trump and Marco Rubio abandoned American workers and their families abroad, delaying waivers to provide for their safe return to the United States.
As these civil servants lost their possessions, housing, and money, Elon Musk was slandering them with bogus accusations.
Don’t love the guy to put it mildly, but I have a ton of respect for him here.
Sen. Josh Hawley rebukes Vance and allies for suggesting that court orders should be disobeyed. Great to see a GOP senator speaking out against this anti-American idea.
February 11, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Don’t love the guy to put it mildly, but I have a ton of respect for him here.
Reposted by Andy Timm
Reminder that ipums.org has all the acs, census, CPS, NHIS, MEPS, and so much more. Bonus that it’s cleaned and harmonized in ways that make these data really easy to use in practice.
February 5, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Reminder that ipums.org has all the acs, census, CPS, NHIS, MEPS, and so much more. Bonus that it’s cleaned and harmonized in ways that make these data really easy to use in practice.
Reposted by Andy Timm
AMFAR has published a report on how the foreign aid freeze affects PEPFAR, which actually still hasn't resumed.
They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day* 🧵
They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day* 🧵
January 30, 2025 at 6:22 AM
AMFAR has published a report on how the foreign aid freeze affects PEPFAR, which actually still hasn't resumed.
They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day* 🧵
They estimate that hundreds of thousands of people lose access to HIV antivirals and 1500 babies are expected to contract HIV — *each day* 🧵
Reposted by Andy Timm
Thanks very much to everybody who chimed in on this thread about attention --I wrote up some notes!
My conclusion from the discussion is that polisci should coordinate on an info board / faux feed design to study (probs v. heterogeneous effects on attention)
alexandercoppock.com/attention.pdf
My conclusion from the discussion is that polisci should coordinate on an info board / faux feed design to study (probs v. heterogeneous effects on attention)
alexandercoppock.com/attention.pdf
January 30, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Thanks very much to everybody who chimed in on this thread about attention --I wrote up some notes!
My conclusion from the discussion is that polisci should coordinate on an info board / faux feed design to study (probs v. heterogeneous effects on attention)
alexandercoppock.com/attention.pdf
My conclusion from the discussion is that polisci should coordinate on an info board / faux feed design to study (probs v. heterogeneous effects on attention)
alexandercoppock.com/attention.pdf
🤡
🚨 BREAKING: OMB has just issued a memo *rescinding* the previous memo freezing all federal financial assistance programs.
Full text, per government source:
Full text, per government source:
January 29, 2025 at 6:26 PM
🤡
Like Bayes, Jaynes, thinking about prior specification, or Kangaroos drinking Fosters?
New post: andytimm.github.io/posts/kangar...
New post: andytimm.github.io/posts/kangar...
Kangaroos, Foster’s, and E.T. Jaynes – Andy Timm
Also maybe some thoughts on priors
andytimm.github.io
January 26, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Like Bayes, Jaynes, thinking about prior specification, or Kangaroos drinking Fosters?
New post: andytimm.github.io/posts/kangar...
New post: andytimm.github.io/posts/kangar...
I’ve been thinking about this tension lately- Trump gets credit for grabbing attention well, but a key story of last cycle is his strength with low-engagement folks.
One way to resolve this is that making news might sort of sieve-like; you need to be constantly high viz everywhere to get through.
One way to resolve this is that making news might sort of sieve-like; you need to be constantly high viz everywhere to get through.
I agree w/ @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social that attention is a critical political currency, but also think it's noteworthy that Trump's GOP is especially strong with lower-turnout voters, who pay less attention to politics.
The attention Trump draws may not always help him.
The attention Trump draws may not always help him.
January 26, 2025 at 5:28 PM
I’ve been thinking about this tension lately- Trump gets credit for grabbing attention well, but a key story of last cycle is his strength with low-engagement folks.
One way to resolve this is that making news might sort of sieve-like; you need to be constantly high viz everywhere to get through.
One way to resolve this is that making news might sort of sieve-like; you need to be constantly high viz everywhere to get through.
Our product and engineering teams are both hiring! Grow Progress is a wonderful place to work, and our platform supports highly impactful candidates and organizations on the left. Come joins us!
Shoot me a DM if you’re interested and have questions.
Links in 🧵
Shoot me a DM if you’re interested and have questions.
Links in 🧵
January 25, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Our product and engineering teams are both hiring! Grow Progress is a wonderful place to work, and our platform supports highly impactful candidates and organizations on the left. Come joins us!
Shoot me a DM if you’re interested and have questions.
Links in 🧵
Shoot me a DM if you’re interested and have questions.
Links in 🧵
Another incredible essay.
Some striking passages to get you interested:
Some striking passages to get you interested:
January 18, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Another incredible essay.
Some striking passages to get you interested:
Some striking passages to get you interested:
Reposted by Andy Timm
Gottheimer keeps using the "hardworking families" line but apparently does not apply that term to hardworking families who rely on the bus or the train. The only people who matter to him are the small number of people who drive into Manhattan.
January 16, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Gottheimer keeps using the "hardworking families" line but apparently does not apply that term to hardworking families who rely on the bus or the train. The only people who matter to him are the small number of people who drive into Manhattan.
Unfortunate news for those of hoping to create a healthy “niche election maps guy” ecosystem over here
Update: #BlueSky apparently down samples maps, lowering resolution & readability, (phone image,)
making my map mostly unreadable, while Twitter apparently does NOT make maps unreadable. (tablet image)
Requires a rethink, eg asking DKElections / DonnerMaps for darker blank cartogram map template.
making my map mostly unreadable, while Twitter apparently does NOT make maps unreadable. (tablet image)
Requires a rethink, eg asking DKElections / DonnerMaps for darker blank cartogram map template.
January 7, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Unfortunate news for those of hoping to create a healthy “niche election maps guy” ecosystem over here
Bunch of great papers here.
Also, not my circus and not my monkeys, what does it say about academic publishing that something as obviously meritorious and practically useful as PSIS took that long to get published? 9 years!?
Also, not my circus and not my monkeys, what does it say about academic publishing that something as obviously meritorious and practically useful as PSIS took that long to get published? 9 years!?
January 7, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Bunch of great papers here.
Also, not my circus and not my monkeys, what does it say about academic publishing that something as obviously meritorious and practically useful as PSIS took that long to get published? 9 years!?
Also, not my circus and not my monkeys, what does it say about academic publishing that something as obviously meritorious and practically useful as PSIS took that long to get published? 9 years!?
It’s happening 😃
(The trailing off of today’s data in the graphs is a bit hard to read, but oh well)
(The trailing off of today’s data in the graphs is a bit hard to read, but oh well)
January 6, 2025 at 1:03 PM
It’s happening 😃
(The trailing off of today’s data in the graphs is a bit hard to read, but oh well)
(The trailing off of today’s data in the graphs is a bit hard to read, but oh well)
We’re internalizing your externalities 😃
January 5, 2025 at 1:22 PM
We’re internalizing your externalities 😃
Did I stay up to midnight for New Years? No.
Did I stay up to midnight to celebrate congestion pricing? Hell yes I did!
Congratulations to all the folks who worked so hard to make this happen in the face of such bad faith opposition, it will make a huge difference for NYC.
Did I stay up to midnight to celebrate congestion pricing? Hell yes I did!
Congratulations to all the folks who worked so hard to make this happen in the face of such bad faith opposition, it will make a huge difference for NYC.
January 5, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Did I stay up to midnight for New Years? No.
Did I stay up to midnight to celebrate congestion pricing? Hell yes I did!
Congratulations to all the folks who worked so hard to make this happen in the face of such bad faith opposition, it will make a huge difference for NYC.
Did I stay up to midnight to celebrate congestion pricing? Hell yes I did!
Congratulations to all the folks who worked so hard to make this happen in the face of such bad faith opposition, it will make a huge difference for NYC.
Reposted by Andy Timm
It’s happening! Tonight, MTA Chair & CEO Janno Lieber unveiled one of the signs at the entrance to the Congestion Relief Zone. Tolling begins at midnight.
Learn more: congestionreliefzone.mta.info
Learn more: congestionreliefzone.mta.info
January 4, 2025 at 10:56 PM
It’s happening! Tonight, MTA Chair & CEO Janno Lieber unveiled one of the signs at the entrance to the Congestion Relief Zone. Tolling begins at midnight.
Learn more: congestionreliefzone.mta.info
Learn more: congestionreliefzone.mta.info
Everyone needs to reconsider their “best/most important papers of 2024” if they missed this: arxiv.org/abs/2501.00536
Phase behavior of Cacio and Pepe sauce
"Pasta alla Cacio e pepe" is a traditional Italian dish made with pasta, pecorino cheese, and pepper. Despite its simple ingredient list, achieving the perfect texture and creaminess of the sauce can ...
arxiv.org
January 4, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Everyone needs to reconsider their “best/most important papers of 2024” if they missed this: arxiv.org/abs/2501.00536
Lots of fantastic stuff here, some of which I hadn’t seen and am excited to read.
My traditional end-of-year review: some papers I read and liked in 2024.
donskerclass.github.io/post/papers-...
donskerclass.github.io/post/papers-...
Papers I Liked 2024 | David Childers
This has been another year where I felt like I slacked on my reading, and that probably is genuinely true for the tumultuous last half, but my read folder lists 154, so I can pick out a few that I lik...
donskerclass.github.io
December 31, 2024 at 4:27 PM
Lots of fantastic stuff here, some of which I hadn’t seen and am excited to read.