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Ruo Shui

@ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social

1.9K followers 200 following 6K posts

stay hydrated https://ruoshui.substack.com/

ruoshui.substack.com

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · Jul 1

The Loss of an Objective Reality

trend: chaos dominance and wealth gap + AI/GLP-1

ruoshui.substack.com

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Epoch AI @epochai.bsky.social · 5h

But OpenAI has also projected revenue of $100B in 2028. We found seven companies which achieved revenue growth from $10B to $100B in under a decade.

None of them did it in six years, let alone three.

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 6h

vols be tingling

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 6h

there is no analog for the current regime

A line chart titled “Household debt service ratio” showing debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income (seasonally adjusted) from 1980 through 2025.

The y-axis ranges from 8% to 18%, while the x-axis spans from 1980 to 2025. The chart features a gray line tracking the household debt service ratio over time, with three notable data points annotated in blue:

1Q1980: 12.4% — the chart begins here, showing a gradual rise in the early 1980s.

4Q2007: 15.8% — the peak point, coinciding with the pre–Great Recession housing and credit boom.

3Q2025 (forecast): 11.3% — the most recent data point, marked near the right edge.

From 1980 through the late 1980s, the ratio fluctuates around 12–13%.

It rises sharply in the 2000s, peaking at nearly 16% just before the 2008 financial crisis.

Afterward, it drops steeply through the 2010s to near 10%, remaining low through the pandemic years (2020–2021).

Recently, the ratio has edged up again toward 11–12% by 2025, indicating a moderate increase in household debt servicing burden relative to income.

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 6h

thanks for flagging. didn't realize Huel team was so active on reddit

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 7h

another way to look at title 42

A vertical stacked bar chart titled “US Immigrants Deported Annually by Deportation Type.” The chart covers the years 1892 through 2024 on the x-axis, with the y-axis showing the number of deportations from 0 to 2,000,000. The data are divided into three deportation categories, represented by color:

Green: Title 42 Expulsions
Orange: Returns
Blue: Removals

From 1892 through the 1930s, deportation activity was minimal, with annual totals under 100,000.

Deportations rise sharply in the 1940s and early 1950s, peaking around 1 million, largely driven by Returns (orange bars).

After a dip through the late 1950s and 1960s, deportations climb again, with Returns dominating through the 1980s and 1990s, reaching new highs around 1.6 to 1.8 million in the early 2000s.

From 2010 to 2020, Removals (blue) account for a larger portion of total deportations, while Returns decline sharply.

Starting in 2020, a new category, Title 42 Expulsions (green), appears abruptly and spikes steeply—surpassing 1.4 million in 2022–2023—reflecting pandemic-era border policies under Title 42.

By 2024, the total deportations decline slightly from the peak but remain historically high, with green Title 42 Expulsions still prominent alongside smaller blue and orange components.

Source: John Burns Research & Consulting.

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 7h

don't think the singularity would need incognito chat

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 20h

incognito chat incoming

Steven Heidel @stevenheidel.com · 1d

seems like a good day to remind everyone of the temporary chat button in ChatGPT, which will disable memory and remove the conversation from your history

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 7h

one thing missing is talking about margin

people are making guesses whether OpenAI is a 30% or a 70% business

considering the capex amount, that part matters

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 7h

this is one of the best articulations of the AI bear case I've read

most of the AI companies are also massively wealthy and profitable hypercorps, but OpenAI specifically is a bomb planted at the heart of the American stock market helpfully labeled "this is a bomb"
prospect.org/power/2025-1...

The AI Ouroboros

Nvidia and other companies are paying startups to buy their products.

prospect.org

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 7h

"Oops, protein powder is full of lead” would explain some trends...

Consumer Reports @consumerreports.org · 1d

Our tests of popular dairy, beef, and plant-based protein products found plant-based options had the highest lead levels, 9x as much as dairy and 2x as much as beef. Even dairy powders weren’t risk-free: half were too contaminated for safe daily use.

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 7h

@albertocavallo.bsky.social's website is worth bookmarking

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 8h

not many people have changed their minds since March

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 26d

APEC is being held in South Korea this year

Reposted by Ruo Shui

Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 8h

This poorly-played game of trade whac-a-mole just isn't working for the US:

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · Sep 15

So what's changed? China's shipments to the US have fallen by 30% or so, but its exports to other countries have surged. So this isn't really a story of the 10% tariff constraining Chinese exporters - it looks a lot more like Chinese exporters using trans-shipments to take advantage of it.

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Rahul Sharma @retailguru.bsky.social · 9h

Bank of America echoes $JPM $WFC & $C. Sequential 200bp acceleration in card spend to +6%. Unlike peers, 30 & 90 day delinquencies fell sequentially, allowing $BAC to release provisions. Arguably best combo of spend strength and quality. $XLY $XLF $V $AXP $MA

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 8h

a man sitting at a table with the words we are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price written below him

ALT: a man sitting at a table with the words we are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price written below him

media.tenor.com

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 19h

More Articles Are Now Created by AI Than Humans

AI-generated content is as good or better than content written by humans. It is often hard to distinguish whether content is created by AI vs. a human. We seek to evaluate the prevalence of article co...

graphite.io

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 19h

A line chart titled “AI-Generated Content Has Surpassed Human Content.” The chart tracks the relative share of total online content produced by humans versus AI from January 2020 through January 2025. The y-axis represents percentage share, ranging from 0% to 100%.

The green line labeled “Human” starts near 100% in early 2020, maintaining a flat trend until around late 2022. Afterward, it declines sharply through 2023 and 2024, dropping below 50% by late 2024 and settling just under 50% by early 2025.

The yellow-orange line labeled “AI” begins near 0% in 2020, remaining nearly flat until November 2022, when a black callout marker notes: “Nov 2022 – ChatGPT Launches.” Following that point, the AI line rises rapidly, crossing the 50% mark around late 2024, slightly surpassing human content by early 2025.

Source: Graphite.

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 20h

incognito chat incoming

Steven Heidel @stevenheidel.com · 1d

seems like a good day to remind everyone of the temporary chat button in ChatGPT, which will disable memory and remove the conversation from your history

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Reposted by Ruo Shui

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 1d

Chair Powell gets a grateful standing O receiving NABE’s Adam Smith Award as he strongly hints at an Oct rate cut and and end to QT “in coming months”
@nabe-econ.bsky.social

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

there's more help from small banks, oil/homebuilders today

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

IWM being green is fascinating

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

seems like most of bigger names have gotten their headlines

Open Compute Project

www.opencompute.org

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

the Argentina one probably matters more than Benioff deals, but largely noise at this point

it's going to be treated the same as earnings reports saying "AI"

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

same with oil names

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 1d

Homies catching a bid

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

A bar chart titled “Figure 4. Distribution of OBBBA and Illustrative Tariffs, 2026–2035 Average.”* The subtitle indicates that values represent the percent of post-tax-and-transfer income. The chart compares four fiscal policy scenarios across income quintiles:

OBBBA Alone (dark blue)
Tariffs Alone (teal blue)
OBBBA, Paid for with Tariffs (orange)
OBBBA, Deficit-Financed (green)

The x-axis shows income quintiles from 1st (lowest income) to 5th (highest income). The y-axis ranges from -6% to +3%.

Under a gross benefits approach, the package is regressive, with a 3% fall in bottom quintile income versus a 6% rise in top quintile income, a swing of about 9 percentage points. The package is even more steeply regressive when incorporating deficit costs however: the net benefit swings from a 14%-of-income burden at the bottom to a 3% benefit at the top, a swing of roughly 17 percentage points.

Footnote:
Final cost of OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) and illustrative tariff policy calibrated to fully offset OBBBA cost.

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), The Budget Lab Analysis. Created with Datawrapper.

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 1d

similar island top. 660.7 to cancel this time

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 20d

would need 660.4 to cancel