Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
I have zero appetite to sit through live $RH conference call. Here's why: read transcript for Gary's answer to simple question on how Paris (the latest, greatest, most beautiful RH whatever) is doing. A long, rambling, jumbo word salad that says, basically, nada. 🤯
$RH underperforms big on margin & whole release is one big moan about why Gary isn't getting credit for missing his own guidance. And as usual, green with envy at Williams Sonoma, actually putting this table in then with a huge pout. Couldn't make it up! 😂 $WSM $RH $ARHS
December 12, 2025 at 1:44 PM
I have zero appetite to sit through live $RH conference call. Here's why: read transcript for Gary's answer to simple question on how Paris (the latest, greatest, most beautiful RH whatever) is doing. A long, rambling, jumbo word salad that says, basically, nada. 🤯
This question on $RH call which, as usual, got a non-answer, is so telling. First hotels, then London, then Paris & we've moved on to restaurants, yet the big industry disruptor never wants to talk about his main business. 😂 $WSM $ARHS
December 12, 2025 at 1:41 PM
This question on $RH call which, as usual, got a non-answer, is so telling. First hotels, then London, then Paris & we've moved on to restaurants, yet the big industry disruptor never wants to talk about his main business. 😂 $WSM $ARHS
Costco management stresses consistent consumer, with comp variability down to tariff news/compares. $COST highlights hyper short-termism of investors & managements in retail - just last night $LULU cited strong Thanksgiving & then weakness after - we're talking of under 3 weeks! 😱 $XRT
December 12, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Costco management stresses consistent consumer, with comp variability down to tariff news/compares. $COST highlights hyper short-termism of investors & managements in retail - just last night $LULU cited strong Thanksgiving & then weakness after - we're talking of under 3 weeks! 😱 $XRT
$RH, brand with 'no peer' struggling when virtually every high-end business is flying. No mention of made up 'demand' comp, RH England, Modern or more incredibly Paris performance. Hardly any text other than big bold warnings about tariffs. Very telling, folks. $WSM 🫣
December 11, 2025 at 10:03 PM
$RH, brand with 'no peer' struggling when virtually every high-end business is flying. No mention of made up 'demand' comp, RH England, Modern or more incredibly Paris performance. Hardly any text other than big bold warnings about tariffs. Very telling, folks. $WSM 🫣
$RH underperforms big on margin & whole release is one big moan about why Gary isn't getting credit for missing his own guidance. And as usual, green with envy at Williams Sonoma, actually putting this table in then with a huge pout. Couldn't make it up! 😂 $WSM $RH $ARHS
December 11, 2025 at 9:55 PM
$RH underperforms big on margin & whole release is one big moan about why Gary isn't getting credit for missing his own guidance. And as usual, green with envy at Williams Sonoma, actually putting this table in then with a huge pout. Couldn't make it up! 😂 $WSM $RH $ARHS
Bank of America CEO says businesses have more visibility going forward & can make more investment decisions as tariff impact is clearer. But labor scarcity/quality is becoming a bigger issue than inflation due to immigration crackdown $BAC $XLF $XLY $XLI
December 11, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Bank of America CEO says businesses have more visibility going forward & can make more investment decisions as tariff impact is clearer. But labor scarcity/quality is becoming a bigger issue than inflation due to immigration crackdown $BAC $XLF $XLY $XLI
$BAC sees no signs of consumer stress. Takes head-on McDonalds/restaurant chains seeing weakness, seeing that as spend shifts. Also says credit quality unlikely to improve further - is at fantastic levels vs history & banks need to take risk to grow. $JPM $XLF $XLY $V $AXP $WFC
December 11, 2025 at 1:03 PM
$BAC sees no signs of consumer stress. Takes head-on McDonalds/restaurant chains seeing weakness, seeing that as spend shifts. Also says credit quality unlikely to improve further - is at fantastic levels vs history & banks need to take risk to grow. $JPM $XLF $XLY $V $AXP $WFC
This is a crucial point. Divergence between upscale & low end has been with us a long time, not something new. And Fed admits obvious: as a result, weight of wealthier folks is much greater & wobbles at lower end will not derail economy as much as macro forecasters think.
Q: Is the K-shaped economy sustainable?
A: "I don't know. Most of the consumption does happen by people who have more means. I think the top third accounts for way more than a third of the consumption, for example. The best we can do is have a price stability, and a strong Labor Market"
A: "I don't know. Most of the consumption does happen by people who have more means. I think the top third accounts for way more than a third of the consumption, for example. The best we can do is have a price stability, and a strong Labor Market"
December 10, 2025 at 10:10 PM
This is a crucial point. Divergence between upscale & low end has been with us a long time, not something new. And Fed admits obvious: as a result, weight of wealthier folks is much greater & wobbles at lower end will not derail economy as much as macro forecasters think.
This is what makes Amex special thanks to its upscale focus. Delinquency rates still below pre-Covid from folks who have the appetite to borrow, know their own spend risk limits & pay $AXP before anyone else! $JPM $BAC $COF $V $MA $XLY
December 10, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This is what makes Amex special thanks to its upscale focus. Delinquency rates still below pre-Covid from folks who have the appetite to borrow, know their own spend risk limits & pay $AXP before anyone else! $JPM $BAC $COF $V $MA $XLY
Not just strong spend, Amex sees no signs of stress. Remember $AXP is unique in monitoring l/approving transactions real-time rather than working to pre-set limits. $XLY $XLF $JPM $V $MA
December 10, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Not just strong spend, Amex sees no signs of stress. Remember $AXP is unique in monitoring l/approving transactions real-time rather than working to pre-set limits. $XLY $XLF $JPM $V $MA
Divergence across incomes may not be growing but vs overall US resilience, high end is booming. Amex spend accelerated 200bp in Q3 & now $AXP says Holiday start even stronger with higher-end Platinum base soaring. 🔥 $JPM $WFC $XLY $XLF $RL $TPR $WSM $EL $URBN $RH
December 10, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Divergence across incomes may not be growing but vs overall US resilience, high end is booming. Amex spend accelerated 200bp in Q3 & now $AXP says Holiday start even stronger with higher-end Platinum base soaring. 🔥 $JPM $WFC $XLY $XLF $RL $TPR $WSM $EL $URBN $RH
Here’s JP Morgan echoing Wells. Spend stronger in Q4 & divergence across incomes no greater than usual. $JPM continues to talk as it has all year about potential & unemployment grinding up. $WFC $BAC $V $MA $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
December 9, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Here’s JP Morgan echoing Wells. Spend stronger in Q4 & divergence across incomes no greater than usual. $JPM continues to talk as it has all year about potential & unemployment grinding up. $WFC $BAC $V $MA $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
Wells Fargo CEO says watch what folks are doing not what they’re saying. Credit quality AND spend both running better than when $WFC reported in October. And differential spend by income remains but not growing. 🔥 $V $MA $BAC $JPM $AXP $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
December 9, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Wells Fargo CEO says watch what folks are doing not what they’re saying. Credit quality AND spend both running better than when $WFC reported in October. And differential spend by income remains but not growing. 🔥 $V $MA $BAC $JPM $AXP $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
But there's also a lot of embedded wealth in housing with value +80% just since 2019 even as mortgage debt is barely up. A big consumer cushion. And meanwhile age of stock has increased dramatically. $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
December 9, 2025 at 4:32 PM
But there's also a lot of embedded wealth in housing with value +80% just since 2019 even as mortgage debt is barely up. A big consumer cushion. And meanwhile age of stock has increased dramatically. $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
Not breaking news by any means but cool charts from Home Depot about why past lock-ins at low rates have been a huge factor in freezing housing turnover, languishing near historic lows. $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $WSM $W $SHW
December 9, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Not breaking news by any means but cool charts from Home Depot about why past lock-ins at low rates have been a huge factor in freezing housing turnover, languishing near historic lows. $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $WSM $W $SHW
Depot reported 3 weeks ago, so 2025 guide reiteration no surprise. But despite macro fears, $HD not forecasting further sales deterioration in 2026 & hopes to hold margin. Guided comp range modestly better than what it will do this fiscal. $LOW $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
December 9, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Depot reported 3 weeks ago, so 2025 guide reiteration no surprise. But despite macro fears, $HD not forecasting further sales deterioration in 2026 & hopes to hold margin. Guided comp range modestly better than what it will do this fiscal. $LOW $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN
Plenty of tariff-related inflation still in the post. Remember many companies shipped in stock to pre-empt tariffs but it is beginning to hit now. This is $ULTA on beauty. $EL $LRLCY $ELF $XLY $XLF
December 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Plenty of tariff-related inflation still in the post. Remember many companies shipped in stock to pre-empt tariffs but it is beginning to hit now. This is $ULTA on beauty. $EL $LRLCY $ELF $XLY $XLF
Marriott says US hotel woes due to crisis of corporate, not consumer confidence. Leisure on plan at $MAR, led by high-end. But group & transient below plan. Divergence also evident in Amex corporate vs consumer card spend. Also why $ABNB holding up better. $HLT $BKNG $AXP $XLF $XLY
December 5, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Marriott says US hotel woes due to crisis of corporate, not consumer confidence. Leisure on plan at $MAR, led by high-end. But group & transient below plan. Divergence also evident in Amex corporate vs consumer card spend. Also why $ABNB holding up better. $HLT $BKNG $AXP $XLF $XLY
Street needs to pull up many of these managements. Prime examples at Kroger that make you go 🤔. $KR cautious on weakness in Oct/Nov but then goes on to Nov was actually above plan! Or that middle-income quest for value evident from (scratches head) no SNAP benefits. 🤷
December 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Street needs to pull up many of these managements. Prime examples at Kroger that make you go 🤔. $KR cautious on weakness in Oct/Nov but then goes on to Nov was actually above plan! Or that middle-income quest for value evident from (scratches head) no SNAP benefits. 🤷
This from the FT is really stretching it. Dollar stores beat forecasts but comps are at bottom-end of retail & in both cases after several years of pain. Walmart did way better, even Kroger out-comped Dollar General. And discretionary, heck Macy’s is running a positive comp people!
December 4, 2025 at 10:35 PM
This from the FT is really stretching it. Dollar stores beat forecasts but comps are at bottom-end of retail & in both cases after several years of pain. Walmart did way better, even Kroger out-comped Dollar General. And discretionary, heck Macy’s is running a positive comp people!
$ULTA ‘new’ (long term insider) CEO continues to set bar super low. But even top retail performers feel obligated to say ‘seeking value’, ‘cautious’ nonsense. $ULTA has run 6%+ comps for 6 straight months & up margin. Folks should ask her which retailer she’s talking about 😡
December 4, 2025 at 9:39 PM
$ULTA ‘new’ (long term insider) CEO continues to set bar super low. But even top retail performers feel obligated to say ‘seeking value’, ‘cautious’ nonsense. $ULTA has run 6%+ comps for 6 straight months & up margin. Folks should ask her which retailer she’s talking about 😡
$ULTA comp strong, margin strong, echoing Estee & L’Oreal who cite strength in US premium beauty & general upbeat consumer reporting. Also seems to massively outperforming Sephora. $LVMUY $EL $LRLCY $XLF $XLY $M $XRT
December 4, 2025 at 9:27 PM
$ULTA comp strong, margin strong, echoing Estee & L’Oreal who cite strength in US premium beauty & general upbeat consumer reporting. Also seems to massively outperforming Sephora. $LVMUY $EL $LRLCY $XLF $XLY $M $XRT
💯. Self-serving for chains like Dollar General & Walmart to say they're getting high end custom. Nothing in their #s shows lower-end getting worse. Yes there's angst around & so sentiment data. But watch what folks are doing, not what they say. Delta just yesterday morning, for example.
Our monthly survey of consumers suggests that the narrative of middle and higher income consumers trading down for value is total nonsense. If anything, the opposite has taken place in recent years.
December 4, 2025 at 4:59 PM
💯. Self-serving for chains like Dollar General & Walmart to say they're getting high end custom. Nothing in their #s shows lower-end getting worse. Yes there's angst around & so sentiment data. But watch what folks are doing, not what they say. Delta just yesterday morning, for example.
Dollar General margin helped by tighter inventory, down 3 straight years, -7% vs sales +12%. Plus higher margin discretionary goods rising as % of mix. $DG discretionary sales inflected positive in Q1 in reassuring signal on low-end & that continues. $DLTR $WMT $XLY $XLF
December 4, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Dollar General margin helped by tighter inventory, down 3 straight years, -7% vs sales +12%. Plus higher margin discretionary goods rising as % of mix. $DG discretionary sales inflected positive in Q1 in reassuring signal on low-end & that continues. $DLTR $WMT $XLY $XLF
Dollar General comp solid +2.5%, acceleration on multi-year stack. Margin strong on higher mark-ups & discretionary sales, driving significant upgrade. Latest pointer to resilience even in low-end (of course $DG will cite gains from higher-end). $DLTR $WMT $V $MA $XLY $XLF
December 4, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Dollar General comp solid +2.5%, acceleration on multi-year stack. Margin strong on higher mark-ups & discretionary sales, driving significant upgrade. Latest pointer to resilience even in low-end (of course $DG will cite gains from higher-end). $DLTR $WMT $V $MA $XLY $XLF