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John Kennedy

@micefearboggis.bsky.social

3.2K followers 3.1K following 1.7K posts

Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. https://www.jkclimate.fr/ .. more

Videos

Environmental science 43%

Geography 15%

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10h

You never know what you’ll learn when you learn something.

Reposted by Peter Thorne

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d

D and A and I and H

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/11/d...

D and A and I and H

Detection and attribution is back in the news for all the wrong reasons. Pielke Junior is once again pushing the line that anyone wanting to say anything about extreme weather has to prove all over…

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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Reposted by John Kennedy

Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 1d

Global and regional climate in 2024 🌡️📈

The latest annual assessment from the Hadley Centre @metoffice.gov.uk published in @rmets.org Weather

Free to read: doi.org/10.1002/wea....

Screenshot of the Weather article page "Global and regional climate in 2024" led by Caroline Sandford

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks. It's mostly stream of what-passes-for-consciousness stuff with a bit of lab notebook and lots of typos.

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d

Distractivist

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks. I’ll have to look into that.

Reposted by Peter Thorne

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d

Open Ocean #12

Kalman filters and ENSO patterns. Such fun!

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/10/o...

Open Ocean #12

Kalman filters and ENSO patterns. Such fun!

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d

I wonder about this too, particularly as the attribution reports can now - in principle - be written before a heatwave even happens.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/09/i...

Isomorts

The advances in modern science are such that we can now attribute deaths in a heatwave to climate change. In fact, so advanced is the science that neither heat nor deaths need to have happened. We …

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d

Quasi monthly update of the monthly climate dashboard

The first September updates are starting to come in. Globally another very warm month.

www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...

Graph showing monthly global mean temperature anomalies from 1850 (in varying shades of yellow, green then dark blue with colours getting darker over time) to 2025 (shown in red). Data are from six data sets: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v5, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5. The latest month shown is September 2025.

Graph showing the ranking for monthly global mean temperature from six data sets between February 2023 and September 2025. Rankings are shown as coloured squares. Red is warmest on record (for that month and dataset), orange is second warmest, deep yellow (a beautiful shade that I want to call cadmium yellow but it's not toxic) means a top five month and pale yellow (the colour of sun-faded straw) is top ten. Nothing is outside that range. Every single warmest month in all datasets happened since July 2023.

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Reposted by John Kennedy

Rishika Pardikar @rishpardikar.bsky.social · 2d

Still trying to understand climate attribution science & criticisms but one thing I can say is headlines like "[insert climate-linked disaster] kills [insert number] people each year" are misleading. There are many possibilities & many worlds that could have existed had there been no climate change

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d

My code has that effect on people.

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d

Open Ocean #11

Playing whack-a-mole with some interesting artefacts in the data and interpolation.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/09/o...

Open Ocean #11

Playing whack-amole with some interesting artefacts in the data and interpolation.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

2 4 6

Reposted by John Kennedy

Ruth Mottram @ruthmottram.bsky.social · 5d

🚨 New @oceaniceeu.bsky.social preprint🚨 why has Antarctica stopped (net) losing mass, in spite of increased discharge?
Declining sea ice is part of the answer but increasingly heavy and frequent atmospheric rivers are most important factor.

Lots of important subtleties:
arxiv.org/abs/2510.03590

Screenshot of figures from the paper: Above a graph showing wiggly lines depicting the cumulative mass budget of Antarctica: a dark line swoops and wiggles downwards before stabilising at the end, colourful dashed lines (depicting snow fall) wiggle along constantly before sloping upwards at the same tme stabilisation occurs.
Below 6 maps of Antarctica in blues and red depicting the mass change in different basins.

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 6d

Open Ocean #10

In which I attempt maths and experience regret. But at least my mean ends up in about the right place.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/06/o...

Open Ocean #10

In which I attempt maths and experience regret.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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Reposted by Dorothy Bishop, John Kennedy, Ben Bond‐Lamberty

Rodrigo Vargas @vargaslab.bsky.social · 7d

⭐️Nominate an Impactful Dataset

@agu.org invites you to nominate an impactful dataset!

📊Submissions will be considered for inclusion in an upcoming featured commentary published in AGU Advances.

Submit nominations by 20 October.

docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

@agubiogeosciences.bsky.social

Nominate an Impactful Dataset

You are invited to nominate a dataset to be included in a commentary about the impact of Earth, space, and environmental data using the dimensions of people, planet, and prosperity. Selected submitter...

docs.google.com

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

Open Ocean #9

Lots of little things

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/05/o...

Open Ocean #9

Lots of little things

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

I was supposed to drop the map of anomalies into this thread... It's quite warm in lots of places but there are some large anomalies over the NH.

bsky.app/profile/mice...

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

The anomalies locally look like this...

(from pulse.climate.copernicus.eu)

Map of surface air temperature anomales from ERA5 for September 2025. Red areas are warmer than the 1991-2020 average and blue areas are colder than it. There are four different logos along the bottom of the graph and one of them appears twice.

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

The anomalies locally look like this...

(from pulse.climate.copernicus.eu)

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

You can see the September bounce here too in a plot of all monthly averages. It will be interesting to see the final ERA5 figures.

Graph showing monthly global mean temperature from 2014 to September 2025. Seven datasets are shown: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, two flavours of Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5.

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d

September global mean temperature is going to take a big leap from August it looks like. I looked at the mean of the daily averages from ERA5 and on an anomaly basis it's much warmer than August was and way above anything before the huge 2023 lurch.

Graph showing global mean temperature for Septembers from 1850 to 2025. Seven datasets are shown: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, two flavours of Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5.

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 11d

Open Ocean #8

Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/10/01/o...

Open Ocean #8

Extending the SST data further back in time and the wonderful horrors of ICOADS.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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Reposted by Peter Thorne

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12d

Open Ocean #7

Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/30/o...

Open Ocean #7

Using a simple interpolation scheme to estimate biases in the ship data and create a bias adjusted dataset

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12d

Invincibly ignorant is a thing.

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14d

Open Ocean #6

Implementing a pattern-based reconstruction technique that works by – I swear – pure magic.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/09/28/o...