Mohamed A. El‐Erian
Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser… more
Source: Wikipedia
H-index:
15
Of note, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has fallen below 4% as credit concerns weigh on regional bank stocks (Bloomberg charts below). This follows warnings from Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO, about credit “cockroaches.”
#economy #markets #banks #credit
#economy #markets #banks #credit
For now, China–U.S. trade tensions continue to escalate ahead of the scheduled October 29 meeting between President Trump and President Xi.
#economy #Tariffs #trade #china #markets @financialtimes.com
#economy #Tariffs #trade #china #markets @financialtimes.com
... been a highly data-dependent Fed needs to also apply a forward-looking, strategic judgment—something it has been reluctant to do since its major (“transitory” inflation) policy mistake in 2021.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #markets #inflation #jobs #employment
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
#economy #federalreserve #markets #inflation #jobs #employment
...it suggests that both supply and demand factors, and not just the latter, are driving the weaker jobs picture.
Bottom line: The backward-looking numbers that this Fed has been using and citing as its main policy influencer do not give a green light for more rate cuts. Instead, what has...
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Bottom line: The backward-looking numbers that this Fed has been using and citing as its main policy influencer do not give a green light for more rate cuts. Instead, what has...
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Beige Book
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
...a softening labor market that could justify further rate cuts.
On the other hand, the Beige Book complicates the policy conclusions in two ways
First, it reports that input costs are rising at a faster pace than before in many districts, even as consumer prices continue to climb.
Second...
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On the other hand, the Beige Book complicates the policy conclusions in two ways
First, it reports that input costs are rising at a faster pace than before in many districts, even as consumer prices continue to climb.
Second...
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Beige Book
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Today’s Beige Book (link below) highlights the policy challenge facing this highly data-dependent Federal Reserve.
On one hand, the latest surveys from the regional Feds point to firms reducing employment through attrition and firings. This aligns with Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday, suggesting...
On one hand, the latest surveys from the regional Feds point to firms reducing employment through attrition and firings. This aligns with Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday, suggesting...
Beige Book
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
...of its ascent, as such conditions typically attract (in-and-out) short-term speculation. This rally has been smoothed by a broader market environment where rampant risk-taking has sent many other assets to record highs, keeping short-term speculators engaged.
#economy #markets #gold #investing
#economy #markets #gold #investing
And just like that, gold is trading above $4,200 .
Gold's steady march from one record high to the next isn't surprising. As I’ve noted before, it is powered by fundamental factors, both specific and general, that are becoming more deeply entrenched.
What is surprising,however,is the linear nature..
Gold's steady march from one record high to the next isn't surprising. As I’ve noted before, it is powered by fundamental factors, both specific and general, that are becoming more deeply entrenched.
What is surprising,however,is the linear nature..
Bloomberg on the latest UK data
“The jobless rate climbed to 4.8% in the three months through August, the highest since May 2021…. Economists had expected it to remain unchanged. Wage growth in the private sector cooled to 4.4%, the lowest since the end of 2021 and below the 4.5% predicted”
#economy
“The jobless rate climbed to 4.8% in the three months through August, the highest since May 2021…. Economists had expected it to remain unchanged. Wage growth in the private sector cooled to 4.4%, the lowest since the end of 2021 and below the 4.5% predicted”
#economy
A great read!
This well-written and entertaining book takes the reader on an engaging journey through the 1929 crash and its aftermath.
It explores how the ambition, greed, hubris, and resilience of the main actors forever changed the course of finance and the economy.
#markets
This well-written and entertaining book takes the reader on an engaging journey through the 1929 crash and its aftermath.
It explores how the ambition, greed, hubris, and resilience of the main actors forever changed the course of finance and the economy.
#markets
Good morning.
Per the latest headlines from Bloomberg and the Financial Times (below), it’s another rollercoaster day for China-US trade tensions.
#economy #trade #tariffs #china #markets
Per the latest headlines from Bloomberg and the Financial Times (below), it’s another rollercoaster day for China-US trade tensions.
#economy #trade #tariffs #china #markets
From BBG:
“Investors are seeking to protect themselves from threats posed by runaway budget deficits through a phenomenon known as the "debasement trade", pulling away from sovereign debt and currencies.”
I’d just add that several factors are driving the so-called debasement trade, not just deficits
“Investors are seeking to protect themselves from threats posed by runaway budget deficits through a phenomenon known as the "debasement trade", pulling away from sovereign debt and currencies.”
I’d just add that several factors are driving the so-called debasement trade, not just deficits
Gold and silver both hit new record highs today as stocks rebound from last Friday's selloff.
#markets #gold #silver #stocks #investing #investors
#markets #gold #silver #stocks #investing #investors
From Bloomberg:
“Bond holders want an ever-higher premium to hold the debt of developed-nation governments as turmoil in France and Japan underscores how politics is eclipsing central bank policy globally as a key market driver.”
#economy #markets #bonds
“Bond holders want an ever-higher premium to hold the debt of developed-nation governments as turmoil in France and Japan underscores how politics is eclipsing central bank policy globally as a key market driver.”
#economy #markets #bonds
President Trump on the rising trade tensions with China:
#economy #markets #trade #tariffs #china
#economy #markets #trade #tariffs #china
A big thank you to all the students in my Wharton class this semester.
I enjoyed the engaging conversations and appreciate all your thoughtful contributions.
Wishing everyone the very best of luck on the exam!
#thankful
I enjoyed the engaging conversations and appreciate all your thoughtful contributions.
Wishing everyone the very best of luck on the exam!
#thankful
From the FT:
“UK consumers have curbed spending more than anywhere else in the G7 since the pandemic…
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, UK household spending has risen just 1 per cent in real terms and fallen 3 per cent on a per capita basis.”
#economy #uk @financialtimes.com
“UK consumers have curbed spending more than anywhere else in the G7 since the pandemic…
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, UK household spending has risen just 1 per cent in real terms and fallen 3 per cent on a per capita basis.”
#economy #uk @financialtimes.com
FYI, the link to my weekly look ahead for the global economy and markets.
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets
The Context
mohamedelerian.substack.com
Want to spark a heated debate among market participants? Ask them whether this valuation premium is justified (I believe it is),whether it will persist (I think it will), and—most contentious of all—at what overall level for the respective indices
(The chart below is from Bloomberg)
#markets #stocks
(The chart below is from Bloomberg)
#markets #stocks
... the US applies on its major trading partners, ranked by total trade volume. This uneven landscape, if it persists or even increases, could well create second- and third-round economic effects.
#economy #tariffs #trade #markets @wsj.com
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#economy #tariffs #trade #markets @wsj.com
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... Given the persistent US fiscal deficit and high national debt (as detailed in yesterday's post), any administration would likely be hesitant to reverse a policy that already generates this level of budgetary receipts.
The second illustrates the pre-Friday disparity in tariff rates...
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The second illustrates the pre-Friday disparity in tariff rates...
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With the spotlight back on US tariff policy after yesterday’s announcement of a 100% additional levy on China as of November (if not earlier), these two charts from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest.
The first highlights the substantial increase in monthly revenue collected from tariffs....
The first highlights the substantial increase in monthly revenue collected from tariffs....
The link to this afternoon's conversation with Scott Wapner.
Thank you, Scott, for having me on your show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
Thank you, Scott, for having me on your show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
The very latest on today's sharp escalation in China-US tensions.
#economy #china #tariffs
#economy #china #tariffs
The chart below is from the IMF.
Despite the significant surge over the past two years, I suspect this trend has more room to run.
The primary driver is the ongoing effort by some central banks to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
#markets #economy #gold
Despite the significant surge over the past two years, I suspect this trend has more room to run.
The primary driver is the ongoing effort by some central banks to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
#markets #economy #gold
Notable market moves this morning:
10-year U.S. Treasury yields below 4.10%.
WTI crude oil below $60.
These developments, combined with remarks signaling future rate cuts from Fed Governor Waller (identified as one of the five finalists to replace Chair Powell), will provide a boost to stocks.
10-year U.S. Treasury yields below 4.10%.
WTI crude oil below $60.
These developments, combined with remarks signaling future rate cuts from Fed Governor Waller (identified as one of the five finalists to replace Chair Powell), will provide a boost to stocks.
...of $1 trillion.
At $1.8 trillion, the overall deficit remained largely unchanged from the previous year.
The fiscal year's deficit equaled 6% of GDP, pushing the total national debt closer to its post-World War II peak of 106%.
www.wsj.com/economy/fede...
#economy #markets #budget #deficit
At $1.8 trillion, the overall deficit remained largely unchanged from the previous year.
The fiscal year's deficit equaled 6% of GDP, pushing the total national debt closer to its post-World War II peak of 106%.
www.wsj.com/economy/fede...
#economy #markets #budget #deficit
Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.
The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.
www.wsj.com
Some takeaways from a WSJ summary (link below) of the US budget for the fiscal year that ended September 30th:
Tariff revenues more than doubled to $195 billion, quite a jump as rate hikes only took effect in April
Interest payments on the national debt surged by $80 billion to reach a new record...
Tariff revenues more than doubled to $195 billion, quite a jump as rate hikes only took effect in April
Interest payments on the national debt surged by $80 billion to reach a new record...
Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.
The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.
www.wsj.com
... we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets."
#economy #markets #argentina #emergingmarkets #imf @ustreasury.govmirrors.com
#economy #markets #argentina #emergingmarkets #imf @ustreasury.govmirrors.com