Mohamed A. El-Erian
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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social

Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more

Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more

Economics 67%
Business 13%

Thank you, Andrew, for the interesting conversation on Squawk Box.

#economy #markets #cnbc @cnbc.com @andrewrsorkin.bsky.social

Liverpool and Manchester City just delivered a masterclass in late-game insanity. A breathless, bizarre finale that defied every script.
You’ve got to love the Premier League.
Now for the Super Bowl. Go Seahawks!!
@lfcr.bsky.social @mancity.com @seahawksofficial.com @patriots.bsky.social

...
If the bipolar system cracks, it is unlikely to be filled by a stable “Third Pole” but, rather, by greater global fragmentation.
Sidelining the multilateral institutions in this situation is a high-risk strategy for most countries.
#economy @wsj.com

... on what they fear—specifically the "weaponization of interdependence" against them, as one of my friends put it—but may struggle to define intermediate objectives and the mechanisms to achieve them.
As such:
The US and China have a longer runway than many realize.
...

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From the WSJ article, “Squeezed by U.S. and China, the World’s Middle Powers Are Teaming Up: Nations are increasingly seeking to bypass the bigger players on trade, supply chains and security.”
My take: History suggests that Middle Powers may find it easy to agree...

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Further to yesterday’s post:

This Bloomberg chart highlights how the bond market has been widening risk spreads for the tech sector.

#economy #markets #bonds #tech #AI #capex

...
Simply relying on convergence to stabilize your portfolio during this period of uncertainty may well be inferior to the approach I discuss here:
finance.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-r...
#economy #markets #investing #investors

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Op-ed: Rotation isn't the answer to the tech uncertainty
Economist Mohamed El-Erian considers the current tech sell-off brought on by "secular uncertainty" and suggests that swapping one theme for another might not work this time.
finance.yahoo.com

Posted earlier:
We have often been told that, when a leading sector/dominant theme (AI/tech in this case) gets shaky, we should just "rotate." But what if the old playbook is less certain in today's unusually uncertain macro landscape? ...

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Op-ed: Rotation isn't the answer to the tech uncertainty
Economist Mohamed El-Erian considers the current tech sell-off brought on by "secular uncertainty" and suggests that swapping one theme for another might not work this time.
finance.yahoo.com

It will be interesting to see how the market for Japanese government bonds reacts to this on Monday.

#economy #markets #Japan #bonds

... in the leveraged loan market?
It wouldn’t surprise me if a third question, relating to motivation, emerges in the coming months:
The balance between constructive motivation (wise, productive investment) and defensive posturing (FOMO-driven, to keep pace with the competition).
#economy #tech #ai

This week crystallized two questions in markets regarding tech’s massive capex plans—with a third lurking on the sidelines
First, to what extent will this historic spending spree yield profitable outcomes?
Second, what is the bond market’s funding appetite, given widening spreads and some frisson...

...stabilize your portfolio during this period of uncertainty may well be inferior to the approach I discuss here:

finance.yahoo.com/news/op-ed-r...

#economy #markets #investing #investors @yahoofinance.com
Op-ed: Rotation isn't the answer to the tech uncertainty
Economist Mohamed El-Erian considers the current tech sell-off brought on by "secular uncertainty" and suggests that swapping one theme for another might not work this time.
finance.yahoo.com

We have often been told that, when a leading sector/dominant theme (AI/tech in this case) gets shaky, we should just "rotate."

But what if the old playbook is less certain in today's unusually uncertain macro landscape? Simply relying on convergence to ...

1 of 2

Good morning!
Starting my day with a quick question, please—what’s your take on this WSJ headline, including possible implications?
Thanks you.
#exonomy #markets #crypto #bitcoin @wsj.com

What a crazy week for the US stock market:

The long-standing buy-the-dip conditioning fueled a massive rally today, including a 50,000 Dow, that erased much if not all of the week’s losses (depending on the index).

#markets #stocks

...
The primary driver of improved sentiment was households with stock market holdings.
5-10 year inflation expectations edged higher, from 3.3% to 3.4%.
#economy #markets #growth #inflation

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The preliminary UMich US Consumer Sentiment measures for February delivered an across-the-board beat relative to consensus forecasts. This wasn't limited to current and expected conditions; 1-year inflation expectations cooled, dropping from 4.0% to 3.5%.
Two qualifiers to note...

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Here’s an interesting thought exercise: Given the sheer scale and nature of this week’s market volatility, would you have expected the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to see a stronger bounce from its recent lows?

#economy #markets #dollar

... increasingly less effective as a tool for forward guidance.
Too often, recent Fed messaging has come across as confused and confusing, inadvertently contributing to avoidable volatility.
#economy #markets #federalreserve @politico.com

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...shifts could come in one of the Fed’s most powerful tools: how it communicates. Namely, it’s a pretty good bet that a Warsh-led Fed will say a lot less.”
This shift would align with the views of many, myself included, who have worried that Fed communication has become ...

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In Politico’s Morning Money today, which is always a great read, Victoria Guida and Sam Sutton note that: “Kevin Warsh, tapped by President Donald Trump to chair the Federal Reserve, has promised big changes at the central bank. One of the biggest ...

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The cover of this week’s edition of The Economist magazine.

Quick market update:
As forced liquidations continue and new margin calls are issued, Bitcoin prices have now plummeted 25% this week alone.
The scale and disorderly nature of the sell-off are spilling to crypto-adjacent assets and also beyond.

#markets #crypto #bitcoin

... of softer-than-consensus-forecast labor numbers have increased the market-implied probability of a June Fed rate cut (the first of the year) to 55%.
#economy #markets #jobs #employment #vacancies #federalreserve

The JOLTS report delivered another blow to the U.S. labor market, cementing a trio of disappointments today:
December job openings slid to 6.54 million—down from a revised 6.93 million in November—with a "vacancies per unemployed" of 0.9.
Today's wave ...

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...
The opportunity lies in identifying "good" assets—those that are merely contaminated by proximity but remain fundamentally undamaged—being disposed of by sellers forced to liquidate to cover losses elsewhere.

#markets #investing #investors

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Further to the earlier post on market developments:
As the trading session progresses, the sense of forced selling—and the resulting contagion—appears to be intensifying, raising the question of when will buyers step in to exploit the "market for lemons" phenomenon.
...

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While on the US labor market, initial weekly jobless claims jumped to 231,000, up 22,000 on the week and more than the consensus forecast.
That said, it's important to remember that this is an inherently noisy data series; one should be cautious about drawing conclusions from a single week of data.