Mohamed A. El-Erian
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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
38K followers 44 following 1.7K posts

Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more

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Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more

Economics 67%
Business 13%
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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6h
Updating the table from a couple of days ago:
Momentum has swung toward Kevin Warsh, who is now tracking above Kevin Hassett.
#federalreserve #economy #markets @polymarket.bsky.social

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6h
Market action today is similar to last week’s ways:
The “rotation trade” away from tech (also called “the broadening”); and
Gold is up while Bitcoin is under pressure.
For the reasons I detailed last week, both offer insights not just for market participants, but also economists and policymakers.

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 7h
At a meeting on AI and the global economy, a respected European figure lamented that “Europe is a rounding error in all this.”
This is a sobering assessment of Europe's current standing in the global AI race.

#economy #AI #europe

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 12h
H/T The Wall Street Journal: Interest payments on US federal debt have grown to "over $1 trillion—more than military spending."

How the economy navigates the additional growth on tap will be a function of the cost of debt and, critically, sustaining high growth.

#economy #debt #markets @wsj.com

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d
FYI: My latest "Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets:"

www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly...

mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...

#economy #markets #jobs #Inflation #federalreserve #China #UK #Europe #AI #investing #investors
The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets
The Context: Lasty Week’s Main Developments In a week when both the Dow and S&P reached new record highs on Thursday, the market’s focus shifted to the so-called "rotation trade" away from tech, offer...
www.linkedin.com

Substack
The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets

The Context: Last Week’s Main DevelopmentsThanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Reposts 5 1d

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d
... rates on other loans held by American households.... The rise in delinquencies comes amid broader concerns that recent graduates are struggling to find work in a US labour market that has cooled over recent quarters."

#economy #markets #studentloans #debt

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d
Per the Financial Times: "More than 9mn US student loan holders have missed at least one payment this year, as delinquencies in the $1.7tn market soar.... The government’s Financial Stability Oversight Council said this week that student loans were “a notable exception” to low default ...

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d
"Oracle Corp.’s new investment-grade notes are now trading more like junk bonds." Bloomberg
The surge in this indicator of default risk reflects more than just concerns about Oracle itself.The bonds are also being used as a hedge against adverse sector-wide developments
#economy #ai #oracle #markets

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
The “Two Kevins" Gap Narrows:
Betting markets have reacted to President Trump’s latest remarks regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair.
After signaling that his choice is down to Kevin AND Kevin, the implied probabilities for the top contenders have shifted.
#Polymarket #federalreserve #economy

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
The back page of today’s US edition of the Financial Times…

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
... proving more resilient than many expected.
Ongoing AI Maturation: Market’s undifferentiated love affair with AI—and the way it has powered the real economy—is gradually giving way to a more differentiated approach, with greater sensitivity to revenues and margins.
#economy #growth #markets #AI

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
Stock News and the US Macroeconomy:
The last few days' so-called “rotation trade” away from tech, illustrated by the Dow outperforming the Nasdaq (please see chart below), supports two themes:
Resilient Fundamentals: The traditional drivers of growth, particularly consumption, are ...

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
… consumers and producers.
The continued GDP sluggishness comes at a challenging time for the UK economy overall, with the government continuing its efforts to roll out a comprehensive growth strategy.
#economy #uk #growth

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d
UK economy contracts for a second consecutive month, falling short of the consensus forecast:
October GDP fell by 0.1% as economic activity was undermined by volatilite uncertainty ahead of the budget announcement.
Sector analysis points to an extended “wait and see” attitude from both…

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
The recovery in gold prices continues, supported by steady demand from long-term holders (such as central banks) and by the greater adoption of gold within model portfolios and other asset allocation frameworks.
#economy #markets #gold #investing #investors

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
... to those in the fixed income markets.
To many there, $40 billion in central bank purchases is $40 billion in purchases ... and at a time when the Fed’s balance sheet, while reduced for its post-pandemic peak of $9 trillion, remains sizeable.
#economy #markets #federalreserve

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell went out of his way yesterday to distinguish the new $40 billion in "reserve-management purchases" (RMP – positioned essentially a technical liquidity management measure) from monetary policy.
But that distinction tends to evaporate the closer you get...

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
... included the biggest jump in initial claims in five years — an increase of 44,000 to 236,000, above the consensus forecast of 220,000.
#economy #markets #jobs #labormarket #employment #unemployment

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
The jobless claims numbers are no longer the outliers in the set of data pointing to a weakening US labor market.
As expected, last week’s drop in initial jobless claims proved to be a headfake, impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday.
This morning’s weekly numbers...

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
…of both company- and sector-wide news — chart below.)
Given the differences in companies operating conditions (please see prior posts), the longer this market dynamic persists, the greater the performance divergence within the tech sector will be over time.
#economy #markets #tech #investors

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d
The current reaction to Oracle’s earnings release—with the stock down some 11% in pre-market trading—illustrates investors’ sensitivity to revenue shortfalls during a period of significant capex spending, particularly related to AI. (And this as the CDS spread has widened significantly on account…

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
... ruling out the possibility of a rate hike anytime soon, he repeatedly characterized the Fed policy stance as “well positioned.”
More dovish-than-expected balance sheet management.
#economy #federalreserve #markets

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
... and on Fed policy signals:
Two-sided formal dissents on this 25 bps rate cut, with indications of a few "soft dissents."
A pause for now on future rate cuts, though the extent of the pause is unclear.
With Chair Powell ...

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
...tariffs, with upside risk in the short term.
Weakening labor market with an unclear balance between demand and supply side influences.
Expected decoupling of growth from employment.
Relatively upbeat on productivity but not willing to attribute this to any large extent to AI
#federalreserve

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
Main takeaways from the Fed’s updated forecasts
Growth revised up (1.9% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026 when adjusted for the effects of the shutdown, per Chair Powell) but still looks low overall given other indicators.
“Somewhat elevated” inflation persisting, which Chair Powell attributes to...
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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
The Fed delivered 25bps, but the real story is the packaging which turned out less hawkish than the markets expected. This became evident starting with the Statement, and was amplified by Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Press Conference.
More to follow on the forecasts and policy signals.

elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
… divergence among central banks.
Not dramatic but worth keeping an eye on.
#economy #markets

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d
It's a gradual, broad-based process, albeit not that sizeable as of now:
Not only are yields rising across the advanced countries, but they are also doing so in response to a mix of economic factors — this as monetary policy continues to shift from highly correlated (rate cuts) to greater…

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elerianm.bsky.social
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d
…
In addition to the lack of overall clarity, these numbers will keep the analytical debate alive over whether supply or demand is driving current labor market dynamics.
#economy #jobs #employment #markets
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