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Mohamed A. El-Erian

@elerianm.bsky.social

31K followers 44 following 1.4K posts

Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University. .. more

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Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–14). He was chair of President Obama's Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times. El-Erian was a candidate in the 2025 University of Cambridge Chancellor election, coming second. .. more

Economics 67%

Business 13%

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 11h

From the FT:
“UK consumers have curbed spending more than anywhere else in the G7 since the pandemic…
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, UK household spending has risen just 1 per cent in real terms and fallen 3 per cent on a per capita basis.”
#economy #uk @financialtimes.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 12h

FYI, the link to my weekly look ahead for the global economy and markets.

mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...

#economy #markets

The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets

The Context

mohamedelerian.substack.com

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Substack

The Weekly Look Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets

The Context

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 13h

Want to spark a heated debate among market participants? Ask them whether this valuation premium is justified (I believe it is),whether it will persist (I think it will), and—most contentious of all—at what overall level for the respective indices
(The chart below is from Bloomberg)
#markets #stocks

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 17h

... the US applies on its major trading partners, ranked by total trade volume. This uneven landscape, if it persists or even increases, could well create second- and third-round economic effects.
#economy #tariffs #trade #markets @wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 17h

... Given the persistent US fiscal deficit and high national debt (as detailed in yesterday's post), any administration would likely be hesitant to reverse a policy that already generates this level of budgetary receipts.
The second illustrates the pre-Friday disparity in tariff rates...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 17h

With the spotlight back on US tariff policy after yesterday’s announcement of a 100% additional levy on China as of November (if not earlier), these two charts from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest.
The first highlights the substantial increase in monthly revenue collected from tariffs....

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

The link to this afternoon's conversation with Scott Wapner.

Thank you, Scott, for having me on your show.

www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...

#economy #markets @cnbc.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

The very latest on today's sharp escalation in China-US tensions.

#economy #china #tariffs

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

The chart below is from the IMF.
Despite the significant surge over the past two years, I suspect this trend has more room to run.
The primary driver is the ongoing effort by some central banks to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
#markets #economy #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

Notable market moves this morning:
10-year U.S. Treasury yields below 4.10%.
WTI crude oil below $60.
These developments, combined with remarks signaling future rate cuts from Fed Governor Waller (identified as one of the five finalists to replace Chair Powell), will provide a boost to stocks.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

...of $1 trillion.
At $1.8 trillion, the overall deficit remained largely unchanged from the previous year.
The fiscal year's deficit equaled 6% of GDP, pushing the total national debt closer to its post-World War II peak of 106%.
www.wsj.com/economy/fede...
#economy #markets #budget #deficit

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

www.wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 1d

Some takeaways from a WSJ summary (link below) of the US budget for the fiscal year that ended September 30th:
Tariff revenues more than doubled to $195 billion, quite a jump as rate hikes only took effect in April
Interest payments on the national debt surged by $80 billion to reach a new record...

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

www.wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

... we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets."
#economy #markets #argentina #emergingmarkets #imf @ustreasury.govmirrors.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

"The international community – including @IMFNews– is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly. And act we will."
This is from the statement by the @USTreasury confirming that "today we directly purchased Argentine pesos. Additionally...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

From Bloomberg: “Beijing has been accumulating gold reserves for a decade and is now seeking to woo other nations to store gold in China's bonded warehouses and trade the metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.”
#economy #china #gold #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 2d

What if stock market gains were measured in gold instead of dollars?
As John Authers notes, “Denominate U.S. stocks in gold rather than dollars, and they’ve been in decline since the dot-com bubble burst 25 years ago. Stocks elsewhere have done even worse.”
#stocks #gold #markets #investors

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 3d

Here’s the link to the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. They reveal significantly less consensus among officials on key policy issues than what was signaled at the press conference that followed that meeting.
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
#economy #FederalReserve

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 16–17, 2025

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that was held on September 16–17, 2025. The minutes f

www.federalreserve.gov

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

No stopping the price of gold for now:
Up more than 50% so far this year, it has more than doubled over the past two years.
Consistent buying by some foreign central baks is being reinforced by growing institutional and retail allocations, and a more volatile speculative overlay.
#gold #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

The resignation of another French PM highlights deep-seated political instability and fiscal challenges. This article explores the immediate impact on French government bonds, the unusual comparison to Italy's market, and the wider implications for the ECB and the UK:
www.ft.com/content/04ed...

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Mohamed A. El‐Erian

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 4d

What is happening in France may not stay in France on.ft.com/46E37Gu | opinion

What is happening in France may not stay in France

Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis

on.ft.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

… respond to what they perceive as the ongoing fragmentation of the global economic and financial order.
#economy #markets #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

…at or near record highs.
In effect, and for the reasons I’ve outlined both in previous articles and here during gold’s remarkable recent ascent, this development is less about “unease in financial markets” and, in part, more about an attempt by some to…

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 4d

This is the type of headline you’d expect when gold prices hit a milestone record high, as they did this morning. Yet, as noted in yesterday’s posts and several earlier ones, this surge is occurring alongside “risk-on” indicators — such as the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, and others — also trading…
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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

Via the Financial Times, fresh evidence of the extent to which risk spreads are narrowing across global assets as investors stretch for returns.

#economy #markets #investors #investing #emergingmarkets #em @financialtimes.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

…
Record levels for Bitcoin, gold, NASDAQ, Russell and S&P
Near record high for Copper
14-year high for silver
And more.
#markets #investors #investing

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

How special was today in markets?
Per Gemini AI, “Monday, October 6th, 2025, saw a remarkable day in the financial markets, with several key assets across different sectors closing at all-time highs.”
Specifically, ...
Record levels for Bitcoin, gold, NASDAQ, Russell and S&P

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 5d

The decoupling of economic growth from employment adds complexity to Federal Reserve policymaking. Here’s why:

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...

#economy #jobs #growth #Inflation #FederalReserve

As Growth Decouples From Employment, the Fed Faces a Trilemma

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks macroeconomic and market trends are giving the US central bank reason to fear for financial stability.

www.project-syndicate.org

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d

The Financial Times on how the price of gold has "rocketed almost 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in."

@financialtimes.com #economy #markets #gold

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 6d

A new record for Bitcoin prices:
Bitcoin traded above $125,000 earlier this morning before pulling back somewhat.
#bitcoin #crypto #markets

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