Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm.bsky.social
Professor, Wharton School, and Senior Fellow, Lauder Inst (both at UPenn). Allianz Chief Economic Advisor. Chair, UnderArmour Board of Directors. Board member, NBER. CFR. Former co-CIO/CEO PIMCO and President, Queens' College, Cambridge University.
From Apollo's Torsten Slok on the US K-shaped economy:
"Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle- and high-income workers."
#economy #inequality #wages #markets
"Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle- and high-income workers."
#economy #inequality #wages #markets
November 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
From Apollo's Torsten Slok on the US K-shaped economy:
"Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle- and high-income workers."
#economy #inequality #wages #markets
"Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle- and high-income workers."
#economy #inequality #wages #markets
Good news: Several media sources are reporting that political progress is being made to end what is now the longest-running US government shutdown.
#economy #shutdown #governmentshutdown #markets
#shutdown2025 #governmentshutdown2025
#economy #shutdown #governmentshutdown #markets
#shutdown2025 #governmentshutdown2025
November 10, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Good news: Several media sources are reporting that political progress is being made to end what is now the longest-running US government shutdown.
#economy #shutdown #governmentshutdown #markets
#shutdown2025 #governmentshutdown2025
#economy #shutdown #governmentshutdown #markets
#shutdown2025 #governmentshutdown2025
FYI: The link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets.
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets
The Context: Coming from a Week of Growth Jitters and Valuation Fears
mohamedelerian.substack.com
November 9, 2025 at 5:00 PM
FYI: The link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets.
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly...
#economy #markets
From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years…
Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in …
1 of 2.
Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in …
1 of 2.
November 8, 2025 at 11:23 PM
From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years…
Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in …
1 of 2.
Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in …
1 of 2.
November 8, 2025 at 5:12 PM
From the Financial Times: “US companies closely tied to the artificial intelligence boom have lost close to $1tn in market value since last Friday.”
#markets #ai #tech @financialtimes.com
#markets #ai #tech @financialtimes.com
November 8, 2025 at 12:32 AM
From the Financial Times: “US companies closely tied to the artificial intelligence boom have lost close to $1tn in market value since last Friday.”
#markets #ai #tech @financialtimes.com
#markets #ai #tech @financialtimes.com
From the Financial Stability Report just published by the Federal Reserve (link: www.federalreserve.gov/publications... ).
#economy #markets #federalreserve #financialstability #financialsystem
#economy #markets #federalreserve #financialstability #financialsystem
November 7, 2025 at 10:18 PM
From the Financial Stability Report just published by the Federal Reserve (link: www.federalreserve.gov/publications... ).
#economy #markets #federalreserve #financialstability #financialsystem
#economy #markets #federalreserve #financialstability #financialsystem
Why, focusing on those working “On AI” is not enough to unlock its enormous potential. That also requires diffusion—ensuring that more individuals, companies, and countries can effectively work “With AI:”
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/from-on-ai...
#tech #ai #economy #growth #Productivity
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/from-on-ai...
#tech #ai #economy #growth #Productivity
From "On AI" to Also "With AI"
Artificial intelligence’s breathtaking advances rightly captivate us.
mohamedelerian.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Why, focusing on those working “On AI” is not enough to unlock its enormous potential. That also requires diffusion—ensuring that more individuals, companies, and countries can effectively work “With AI:”
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/from-on-ai...
#tech #ai #economy #growth #Productivity
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/from-on-ai...
#tech #ai #economy #growth #Productivity
NY Fed data shows inflation expectations firmly anchored at around 3%.
Specifically, one-year inflation expectation fell slightly to 3.24% (from 3.38%), as did three-year (to 3.00% from 3.05%). Five-year was essentially unchanged at 3.00%.
#economy #markets #inflation
Specifically, one-year inflation expectation fell slightly to 3.24% (from 3.38%), as did three-year (to 3.00% from 3.05%). Five-year was essentially unchanged at 3.00%.
#economy #markets #inflation
November 7, 2025 at 4:17 PM
NY Fed data shows inflation expectations firmly anchored at around 3%.
Specifically, one-year inflation expectation fell slightly to 3.24% (from 3.38%), as did three-year (to 3.00% from 3.05%). Five-year was essentially unchanged at 3.00%.
#economy #markets #inflation
Specifically, one-year inflation expectation fell slightly to 3.24% (from 3.38%), as did three-year (to 3.00% from 3.05%). Five-year was essentially unchanged at 3.00%.
#economy #markets #inflation
US consumer sentiment just hit 50.3, its lowest level since the record low of June 2022, driven by concerns over the government shutdown:
The University of Michigan "current conditions" component dropped to a record level while the "expectations" sub-index fell to a 6-month low.
...
1 of 2
The University of Michigan "current conditions" component dropped to a record level while the "expectations" sub-index fell to a 6-month low.
...
1 of 2
November 7, 2025 at 3:21 PM
US consumer sentiment just hit 50.3, its lowest level since the record low of June 2022, driven by concerns over the government shutdown:
The University of Michigan "current conditions" component dropped to a record level while the "expectations" sub-index fell to a 6-month low.
...
1 of 2
The University of Michigan "current conditions" component dropped to a record level while the "expectations" sub-index fell to a 6-month low.
...
1 of 2
China's October exports fell 1.1%, coming in lower than expected and marking the first decline in 8 months.
The drop was driven by a 25% YoY fall in shipments to the US, which was not fully offset by a 3.1% rise in shipments to other countries.
With 1 % import growth, the trade surplus was $90.1 bn.
The drop was driven by a 25% YoY fall in shipments to the US, which was not fully offset by a 3.1% rise in shipments to other countries.
With 1 % import growth, the trade surplus was $90.1 bn.
November 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
China's October exports fell 1.1%, coming in lower than expected and marking the first decline in 8 months.
The drop was driven by a 25% YoY fall in shipments to the US, which was not fully offset by a 3.1% rise in shipments to other countries.
With 1 % import growth, the trade surplus was $90.1 bn.
The drop was driven by a 25% YoY fall in shipments to the US, which was not fully offset by a 3.1% rise in shipments to other countries.
With 1 % import growth, the trade surplus was $90.1 bn.
In a close 5–4 decision, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and, with inflation “judged to have peaked,” signaled future cuts.
The decision to hold rates was in line with the consensus expectation, while the forward policy guidance was somewhat more dovish.
#economy #uk #inflation
The decision to hold rates was in line with the consensus expectation, while the forward policy guidance was somewhat more dovish.
#economy #uk #inflation
November 6, 2025 at 1:16 PM
In a close 5–4 decision, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and, with inflation “judged to have peaked,” signaled future cuts.
The decision to hold rates was in line with the consensus expectation, while the forward policy guidance was somewhat more dovish.
#economy #uk #inflation
The decision to hold rates was in line with the consensus expectation, while the forward policy guidance was somewhat more dovish.
#economy #uk #inflation
The ISM index for services rose from 50.0 to 52.4, driven by both new orders and current activity, while prices paid edged higher (69.4 to 70).
Bottom line: The core (non-AI) US economy is holding steady and somewhat sticky inflation is persisting.
#economy #markets #ISM #growth #inflation
Bottom line: The core (non-AI) US economy is holding steady and somewhat sticky inflation is persisting.
#economy #markets #ISM #growth #inflation
November 5, 2025 at 11:48 PM
The ISM index for services rose from 50.0 to 52.4, driven by both new orders and current activity, while prices paid edged higher (69.4 to 70).
Bottom line: The core (non-AI) US economy is holding steady and somewhat sticky inflation is persisting.
#economy #markets #ISM #growth #inflation
Bottom line: The core (non-AI) US economy is holding steady and somewhat sticky inflation is persisting.
#economy #markets #ISM #growth #inflation
The devotion of us, Jets fans... it's something else.
We push the boundary between admirable and stubborn every single season. Even after this latest twist that tests our patience, the loyalty stays strong.
Is that heroic, foolish, or worse?
#JetsNation #NYJets @newyorkjets.bsky.social #jets
We push the boundary between admirable and stubborn every single season. Even after this latest twist that tests our patience, the loyalty stays strong.
Is that heroic, foolish, or worse?
#JetsNation #NYJets @newyorkjets.bsky.social #jets
November 5, 2025 at 8:48 PM
The devotion of us, Jets fans... it's something else.
We push the boundary between admirable and stubborn every single season. Even after this latest twist that tests our patience, the loyalty stays strong.
Is that heroic, foolish, or worse?
#JetsNation #NYJets @newyorkjets.bsky.social #jets
We push the boundary between admirable and stubborn every single season. Even after this latest twist that tests our patience, the loyalty stays strong.
Is that heroic, foolish, or worse?
#JetsNation #NYJets @newyorkjets.bsky.social #jets
With the government shutdown likely to prevent the BLS from issuing the official US October jobs report this Friday, all eyes are on this morning's (just-released) ADP data.
Here's the major takeaways:
The headline number of +42,000 jobs beat the consensus forecast (30k).
Hiring was driven by ...
Here's the major takeaways:
The headline number of +42,000 jobs beat the consensus forecast (30k).
Hiring was driven by ...
November 5, 2025 at 1:37 PM
With the government shutdown likely to prevent the BLS from issuing the official US October jobs report this Friday, all eyes are on this morning's (just-released) ADP data.
Here's the major takeaways:
The headline number of +42,000 jobs beat the consensus forecast (30k).
Hiring was driven by ...
Here's the major takeaways:
The headline number of +42,000 jobs beat the consensus forecast (30k).
Hiring was driven by ...
Today's exit polls suggest that the economy was an important factor.
For quite a few voters, it came down to one key issue in particular: affordability.
#ElectionDay #ExitPolls #Economy
For quite a few voters, it came down to one key issue in particular: affordability.
#ElectionDay #ExitPolls #Economy
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Today's exit polls suggest that the economy was an important factor.
For quite a few voters, it came down to one key issue in particular: affordability.
#ElectionDay #ExitPolls #Economy
For quite a few voters, it came down to one key issue in particular: affordability.
#ElectionDay #ExitPolls #Economy
Chancellor Rachel Reeves' pre-Budget speech this morning is worth a read (link below)
It offers a candid look at the UK's fiscal situation and identifies the core challenges,including the need to address worsening debt dynamics before they overwhelm policy flexibility
The speech sets out the case...
It offers a candid look at the UK's fiscal situation and identifies the core challenges,including the need to address worsening debt dynamics before they overwhelm policy flexibility
The speech sets out the case...
Chancellors Scene Setter speech ahead of Budget 2025
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered her scene setter speech on Tuesday 4 November 2025.
www.gov.uk
November 4, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Chancellor Rachel Reeves' pre-Budget speech this morning is worth a read (link below)
It offers a candid look at the UK's fiscal situation and identifies the core challenges,including the need to address worsening debt dynamics before they overwhelm policy flexibility
The speech sets out the case...
It offers a candid look at the UK's fiscal situation and identifies the core challenges,including the need to address worsening debt dynamics before they overwhelm policy flexibility
The speech sets out the case...
This chart from John Authers' daily note gives us a sense of the incredible outperformance of tech names relative to other companies in the S&P 500.
#economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social
#economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social
November 3, 2025 at 9:36 PM
This chart from John Authers' daily note gives us a sense of the incredible outperformance of tech names relative to other companies in the S&P 500.
#economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social
#economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social
The link to this morning's conversation on Squawk Box.
Thank you Andrew, Joe and Mike for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
Thank you Andrew, Joe and Mike for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
The Fed will be paralyzed by divisions unless it takes a strategic view, says Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian, The Wharton School Rene Kern professor and Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's interest rate decision, divisions within the FOMC, rate path outloo...
www.cnbc.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:44 PM
The link to this morning's conversation on Squawk Box.
Thank you Andrew, Joe and Mike for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
Thank you Andrew, Joe and Mike for having me on the show.
www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
#economy #markets @cnbc.com
Economic damage is intensifying 34 days into the US government shutdown, disproportionately hitting the more vulnerable segments of the population and significantly disrupting some sectors like air travel.
The longer this persists, the slower and less complete the bounce-back when the shutdown ends
The longer this persists, the slower and less complete the bounce-back when the shutdown ends
November 3, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Economic damage is intensifying 34 days into the US government shutdown, disproportionately hitting the more vulnerable segments of the population and significantly disrupting some sectors like air travel.
The longer this persists, the slower and less complete the bounce-back when the shutdown ends
The longer this persists, the slower and less complete the bounce-back when the shutdown ends
The links to the conversation with Robert Peston on “The Rest is Money.”
Thank you, Robert, for having me on your podcast.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w...
open.spotify.com/episode/4RCi...
#economy #UK #deficit #debt #budget #markets
Thank you, Robert, for having me on your podcast.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w...
open.spotify.com/episode/4RCi...
#economy #UK #deficit #debt #budget #markets
Why Reeves Should Put Up Income Tax
Podcast Episode · The Rest Is Money · 03/11/2025 · 44m
podcasts.apple.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:10 PM
The links to the conversation with Robert Peston on “The Rest is Money.”
Thank you, Robert, for having me on your podcast.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w...
open.spotify.com/episode/4RCi...
#economy #UK #deficit #debt #budget #markets
Thank you, Robert, for having me on your podcast.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w...
open.spotify.com/episode/4RCi...
#economy #UK #deficit #debt #budget #markets
US manufacturing production remains under pressure even as inflation eases
The ISM's manufacturing index came in below 50 for the eighth straight month, declining 0.4 points to 48.7. The employment subcomponent also remained below the 50.
...
1 of 2
The ISM's manufacturing index came in below 50 for the eighth straight month, declining 0.4 points to 48.7. The employment subcomponent also remained below the 50.
...
1 of 2
November 3, 2025 at 4:59 PM
US manufacturing production remains under pressure even as inflation eases
The ISM's manufacturing index came in below 50 for the eighth straight month, declining 0.4 points to 48.7. The employment subcomponent also remained below the 50.
...
1 of 2
The ISM's manufacturing index came in below 50 for the eighth straight month, declining 0.4 points to 48.7. The employment subcomponent also remained below the 50.
...
1 of 2
Please find below the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#economy #markets
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#economy #markets
The Week Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets
The Context
mohamedelerian.substack.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Please find below the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets:
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#economy #markets
mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#economy #markets