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Menzie Chinn

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal… more

H-index: 70
Economics 93%
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Elevated trade and economic policy uncertainty during the shutdown #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Iikka Korhonen — Reposted by Menzie Chinn

iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
”..initially set at 25% for cabinets, vanities and upholstered wooden furniture — officially took effect on Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. New York time. Imports of softwood timber and lumber, meanwhile, are newly subject to 10% fees.”
”National security”, yes🇺🇸
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump’s Lumber Tariffs Take Hold, Threatening to Hike Home Costs
The US is now collecting tariffs on imported timber, lumber, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, duties that threaten to raise the cost of renovations and deter new home pur...
www.bloomberg.com
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by Menzie Chinn — Reposted by Louis D Johnston

mchinn.bsky.social
If you didn't like ESF use for Mexico 1994, you should really, really, really object to ESF use for Argentina 2025 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Gold surges in value, pushing up gold share of central bank reserves #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

sdonnan.bsky.social
We have the first multi-billion bankruptcy of the Trump tariff era.

My latest for the @bloomberg.com Supply Lines newsletter:

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Trump Tariffs’ Role in First Brands Saga Point to Slowly Emerging Economic Damage
The emerging view set to be confirmed at this week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank is that the global economy has so far avoided the worst of the tariff pain many a...
www.bloomberg.com
3 27 56

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Deceleration forecasted in Q4 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Thanks. My view - the economy can move fast, even if the data move slowly. It's the revisions I'm interested in here. Remember, a lot of the downward movement in Sept ADP employment was in the previous month revision...

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
56 9

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
For the Administration, is it "ignorance is bliss"? Better not to know NFP, GDP, personal income? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
2 7

by Menzie Chinn — Reposted by Simon Lester

mchinn.bsky.social
ht/ @simonlester.com & WaPo:
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
4 9

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
I thought that would be the case. So expect a delay in PPI, *October* employment situation releases, as well as JOLTS. And for BEA, I doubt GDP and monthly outlays and income will come out on schedule. Good thing we don't need these releases to determine optimal macro policies...
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

elizwebhand.bsky.social
I don't think BLS staff can return to work after a lengthy shutdown and produce data releases at the pre-announced deadlines, even if they return before these deadlines.
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Current betting on Kalshi for 34 day shutdown; 35 days and we miss JOLTS (BLS) and int'l trade for September (BEA) #EconSky
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
I stand corrected (h/t Ben Zipperer), *this week* is reference week, next week (19th) is interview week...
mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Betting on shutdown is now 31.6 days...usual survey period for CES and CPS is *this week*; Admin calls back some BLS employees for CPI, but not for employment release... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Reposted by Menzie Chinn

benzipperer.org
For the CPS, it seems like the reference week is this coming week and the interview week starts Oct 19

www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Table of reference weeks for the CPS from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website
3 6

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Betting on shutdown is now 31.6 days...usual survey period for CES and CPS is *this week*; Admin calls back some BLS employees for CPI, but not for employment release... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
1 5 8

by Menzie Chinn — Reposted by Timothy D. McBride

mchinn.bsky.social
He's baaack... EJ Antoni on the Michigan Survey of Consumers #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com
3 3 14

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
The soybean farmers of the Midwest thank Trump! #Econsky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
We'll miss PPI, import/export prices, state employment, ECI, etc; we'll also miss GDP 3qtr advance release and income and spending, with a 31 day shutdown... #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
4 19 62

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
On a non-economic note, thanks to DOGE for increasing morale among FAA workers (by letting go of probationary workers) see flightware.com/miserymap/ as of 4:15 pm CT today
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
The beginning of the P/E adjustment process? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
2 9

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
UMich Sentiment (prel) is back down to post-"Liberation Day" levels, below global financial crisis levels ... so tired of winning #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Differential growth large v small firms #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Alberto Cavallo on consumer prices deviation from trend, post-Trump trade war start #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
US ag exports - prospects in the Trump 2.0 era #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Trump slams the ag sector, so govt financial support is needed (again!) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Are we in a recession? The heavy truck sales indicator suggests so (but Sahm rule doesn not) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
What data releases will we miss? What data are not being collected if the shutdown goes 22 days (current Kalshi estimate)? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
Betting is on gov't shutdown to 21 Oct or so - so maybe no CPI release for you (for a while)! Nowcasts suggest accelerated CPI (instantaneous) inflation, steady core #EconSky @janeeckhout.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
1 2 14

by Menzie Chinn

mchinn.bsky.social
ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab private NFP series for firms 1-499 suggests downturn #Econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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