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Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the… more

Mark Galeotti
H-index: 16
Political science 78%
Sociology 15%
markgaleotti.bsky.social
«La Russia di Putin è prigioniera del passato. Una popolazione plasmata dalla guerra»

Somehow, I doubt the Italian translation of my FORGED IN WAR will fall into Putin's hand, but I appreciate the image, and the chance to talk to Corriere della Sera about the book

www.corriere.it/esteri/25_ot...

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

by Mark GaleottiReposted by Brigid Laffan

markgaleotti.bsky.social
We're not in a "fully-fledged war with Moscow", whatever Putin's rhetoric

by Mark GaleottiReposted by Brigid Laffan

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Don't get me started on the subtitle of The Vory, 'Russia's super-mafia.' The price to be paid for having a foreign word as the title (publishers generally don't like that)
markgaleotti.bsky.social
Let's just say that what goes on a cover - from text to design - tends to reflect a compromise between the author and the publishers...

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

markgaleotti.bsky.social
What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at Amazon.co.uk for a trivial 99p this month
markgaleotti.bsky.social
I don't think there's any reason to think so, not least as Putin was dragged reluctantly into burning his relationship with Israel and kinda supporting Hamas *after* the attacks, because of the need at the time to keep Iran sweet
markgaleotti.bsky.social
…his default is likely towards conservatism and authoritarianism. Brezhnevism or Nicholas II-ism? One died in office, the other emphatically did not. We’ll see which parallel plays out best. 10/end
markgaleotti.bsky.social
He is, after all, risk averse, and tends to regard change as always the riskier option. Having seen both the USSR and DDR collapse around him, and regarding this as results of attempted reform and regime weakness… 9/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
But it’s hard to imagine VVP and his fellow septuagenarians able to reinvent themselves or come up with any substantive changes in direct. He *could* do all kinds of things, but will he? I suspect he’ll just plough on, hoping everything works out. 8/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
…comes political resentment. Probably not protest on any major scale – one thing the regime still does well is repression – but protest potential, a simmering undercurrent that even if not manifest in direct action, undermines coherence, productivity and morale, late Brezhnevism style. 7/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
Combined with the petrol supply crisis brought about by Ukrainian long-range strikes, this means the effort – largely successful until now – to insulate most Russians from the war will become ever harder, and with that… 6/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
This is scarring, but bearable – he can continue to fight his war. However, the civilian sector of the economy is withering, and the quality of life for most will decline: the death of the old Putin ‘stay out of politics but enjoy life’ social contract. 5/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is slowing down. GDP growth this year will slow to 1% or less, while inflation is not going to fall to the 4% target but hover closer to 7%. 4/
markgaleotti.bsky.social
…while he doesn’t have to fight a forever war, just be able to last longer than Ukraine, what may be a costly but viable military strategy also has serious economic and political costs at home. Is that last bit of Donetsk oblast really worth it? He seems to think so. 3/

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