Mark Galeotti
LightNews LightNews
banner
markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti
@markgaleotti.bsky.social
8.2K followers 34 following 360 posts

Analyst of murky topics from Russian politics to organised crime.

Videos

Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. He is an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, and an associate fellow in Euro-Atlantic geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy, as well as formerly a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. .. more

Political science 78%
Sociology 15%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

falter.at
FALTER. Die Wochenzeitung aus Wien @falter.at · 1d
Cyberpunk-Historiker @markgaleotti.bsky.social​ zieht eine Linie vom gescheiterten Aufstand 1825 zum Wagner-Putsch 2023. Eine Hörtipp-Empfehlung von @evakonzett.bsky.social​ und eine Analyse, warum die Russische Bevölkerung den Westen nicht als Paradies sieht ↓
Spanien 1936/ Ukraine 2025: Wir sind alle Ukraine
Welche historischen Ereignisse können uns verstehen helfen, was da gerade zwischen Moskau, Washington und Kiew abgeht? Eine Auswahl
www.falter.at

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 2d
The 30-mile stretch of land that will dictate the future of Europe

A quick piece for @theipaper.com on that piece of Donetsk region that could well the doom of any hopes of a peace agreement

inews.co.uk/news/world/3...
The 30-mile stretch of land that will dictate the future of Europe
The battle over this contested region could signal the collapse of any peace deal
inews.co.uk

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4d
Monday morning re-up: the proposed Ukraine deal framework (while we wait and see what revisions followed the US-Ukraine meeting) and the 1825 Decembrist Revolt, and what it may say about the situation today
markgaleotti.bsky.social Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?

In the 1st half, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal (and what it's not).
In the 2nd, I spin off Rabow-Edling's excellent book on the 1825 Decembrist Revolt to consider its modern resonances.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine? - In Moscow's Shadows
In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.In the second, I spin off Su...
www.buzzsprout.com

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d
Essentially, yes: there is some scope for Western escalation, but there is also scope for Russian escalation

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?

In the 1st half, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal (and what it's not).
In the 2nd, I spin off Rabow-Edling's excellent book on the 1825 Decembrist Revolt to consider its modern resonances.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine? - In Moscow's Shadows
In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.In the second, I spin off Su...
www.buzzsprout.com

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d
Because they are Russian sovereign assets. I don’t see why you think otherwise

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
Budapest Agreements provided NO security guarabtees. They simply said that signatories wouldn't invade Ukraine - which Russia clearly broke - but the only 'sanction' was that the other countries would raise any breach with the UN, which they did. That's all that was entailed.

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
If they don't, then the plan falls through. But the point is that this may be the start of a process which could create and fix them.

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
If you read the thread through, you'll see that I say security guarantees need to be firmed up and fleshed out, that this is just the potential basis for proper talks, no more. But feel free to enjoy your moral certitude

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
I’m certainly not saying this is a *good* plan. There are some weird anomalies (START-1?) and whole legions of devils in the details, from monitoring to security guarantees. But arguably it’s the closest to the basis for talks that we could have expected 8/end

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
Sanctions relief is staged, likely not complete, and Moscow must allow $100B of its frozen funds to go to Ukraine reconstruction. That’s better than I imagined, even though the form of reconstruction looks a little exploitative/colonial (to US gain). 7/

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
Withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Region continues to be a tough one; making this a DMZ *may* make it easier to swallow, as it addresses the issue of the region being used as a springboard for future attacks. 6/

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
There continue to be claims that Ukraine would be denied long-range weapons. I’m not seeing that (am I just reading incomplete versions of the text), just a commitment to not actually striking Moscow or St P “without cause” 5/

markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d
That’s also just the standing army – to which there would presumably be a substantial mobilisation reserve in case of war. As many as Ukraine might like? Probably not – but the country would be by no means defenceless 4/