Nikolas Gvosdev
@fpriorbis.bsky.social
Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/ ..
more
Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/
Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev is a Russian–American international relations scholar. He is currently professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College and the former Editor of the bi-monthly foreign policy journal, The National Interest. He writes as a specialist on US foreign policy as well as international politics as they affect Russia and its neighbors. He currently serves as editor of the journal Orbis. .. more
Political science
69%
Sociology
14%
Pinned
Is an organizing principle for U.S. national security emerging around the frame of #business_diplomacy ( #commercial_diplomacy ) with a #geotechnology focus? Some analysis in #BakuDialogues and @fpri.bsky.social (links in comments).
Diaspora Orthodox (Ukrainians, Russians, Serbs, etc.) had gotten use to "American" Christmas being the elf and reindeer toy holiday, and "ethnic" Christmas on January 7 for old-world traditions and celebrating the birth of Christ. 2/
Various independent Ukrainian governments in the 1917-1920 period all endorsed the Gregorian calendar, and some churches made the shift, others did not. 1923 Ecumenical Patriarchate was first formal shift in Orthodox world to use Gregorian (cc: @radiofreetom.bsky.social ) for church dates. 2/
Calendar issues are sensitive ones in Orthodox communities. When the Orthodox Church in America (OCA) made the decision in the 1970s to align the church calendar with the civil one (i.e. switch to the Gregorian/new calendar) it proved highly divisive in congregations. 1/
Various independent Ukrainian governments in the 1917-1920 period all endorsed the Gregorian calendar, and some churches made the shift, others did not. 1923 Ecumenical Patriarchate was first formal shift in Orthodox world to use Gregorian (cc: @radiofreetom.bsky.social ) for church dates. 2/
Just a reminder: no one has changed the date of Christmas in either Ukraine or Russia. It is a calendar shift: December 25th on the Julian Calendar corresponds to January 7th on the Gregorian.
Again, for those in the back. Orthodox Christmas is December 25th. Whether the church calendar is aligned with the civil calendar produces the discrepancy. In 1913 Russian Empire, both calendars were Julian. Since 1918 civil calendar in Russia is Gregorian, church is Julian. 1/
Thus, we get weaselly language at NATO summits about NATO membership happening in the future, with new Ukraine-NATO frameworks as consolation prizes. But that dynamic is due largely to domestic politics, not some Kremlin secret deal. END
Bush thought that just as Russia had reluctantly accepted Baltic accession to NATO, he could find a way to finesse Russian acceptance of Ukraine. Instead, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden all discovered that the price of bringing Ukraine exceeded what they were willing to pay. 8/
If there was truly any secret Bush-Putin deal, then large-scale support for the NATO information center in Kyiv to try and shape public opinion and all of the train/equip efforts to bring the Ukrainian military closer to NATO standards make no sense at all. 7/
Senate Resolution 528 (2008) unanimously passed (with two future #POTUS Obama and Biden voting) recommitted U.S. to take all measures to quickly live up to the Bucharest pledge of eventual Ukrainian membership. 6/
with Russia or that these efforts were just "for show." The problem was that those assessments were overconfident in terms of addressing concrete European concerns. Thus, the satisficing final statement with the binding pledge of future membership. 5/
Right up to Bucharest 2008, the U.S. was pushing for Ukraine's membership bid and I was being told in the context of think tank conclaves that the administration was confident that objections by other NATO members would be overturned. There was no mention of any secret deal 4/
The 2007 NATO Freedom Consolidation Act commits the U.S. to support Ukraine's membership and to provide assistance so that Ukraine can qualify. No Bush veto and no Bush signing statement that indicates anything other than full support for these provisions. 3/
The crux rests on Ukraine not being given a membership action plan in Bucharest, with this being spun as some sort of concession to Russia. In reality the U.S. was pushing very hard in 2007/08 for other NATO countries to agree to giving Georgia and Ukraine a nod for membership.2/
Can we stop creating a new myth that Bush and Putin had an agreement not to bring #Ukraine into #NATO? (cc: @radiofreetom.bsky.social for his input). New declassified documents have Putin making his objections to Bush; Bush politely acknowledging (but not agreeing). 1/
Sign Up | LinkedIn
500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.
www.linkedin.com
Are we getting closer to a Russia-Ukraine deal? Speculation grows about Zelensky-Trump last minute summit: www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Just a reminder: no one has changed the date of Christmas in either Ukraine or Russia. It is a calendar shift: December 25th on the Julian Calendar corresponds to January 7th on the Gregorian.
Spiritual Music Festival 2025 Sts Sahag and Mesrob Armenian Church
YouTube video by Konstantin Petrossian
www.youtube.com
2025 Rhode Island Spiritual Music Festival: www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKLP...
Clients have asked us to provide our assessment of the newest proposals for a Ukraine-Russia settlement based on a withdrawal of Russian and Ukrainian forces from Donbass and creation of a free… | Sou...
Clients have asked us to provide our assessment of the newest proposals for a Ukraine-Russia settlement based on a withdrawal of Russian and Ukrainian forces from Donbass and creation of a free econom...
www.linkedin.com
Expecting the latest proposals for Donbass to be rejected by Moscow? How Putin prolonged the talks with Abe over the Kurils may give a sense of the Kremlin's "not saying no outright" strategy ... www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
#asean #keystone #jakarta | Nikolas Gvosdev
Something that I've discussed with Damjan Krnjevic Miskovic is the pathway for the alignment of Southeast Asia with Central Asia, and how #ASEAN provides a model for Central Asian states to band toget...
www.linkedin.com
Central Asia and Southeast Asia alignment? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
We assess that Russia faces greater economic strain with the effective price for Urals crude of around $34 / barrel. We do not believe that this strain translates into economic collapse or even a… | S...
We assess that Russia faces greater economic strain with the effective price for Urals crude of around $34 / barrel. We do not believe that this strain translates into economic collapse or even a majo...
www.linkedin.com
$34/barrel for Russian oil is a problem, but not catastrophic ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
Short-term "dodging" strategies have worked ... longer-term will be interesting to see what happens. Consistent public support for developing alternatives (although as we've seen even th...
Short-term "dodging" strategies have worked ... longer-term will be interesting to see what happens. Consistent public support for developing alternatives (although as we've seen even the robust effor...
www.linkedin.com
Short-term, the defense sector dodged a rare-earth embargo bullet. What holds for the longer term? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
John Gastright: New ISOA Chairman, INDOPACOM contested logistics, and the evolution of Amentum | Nikolas Gvosdev
I appreciate that Jake Frazer in his conversation with John Gastright discussed how the environment is changing, and more importantly the growing and necessary role of the private sector in assuring l...
www.linkedin.com
Interesting conversation on contested logistics, growing role of the private sector, changes in procurement ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...