Nikolas Gvosdev
@fpriorbis.bsky.social
Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/
Writing in The National Interest Tom Graham attempts to lay out how this gap might be bridged … nationalinterest.org/feature/endi...
November 27, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Writing in The National Interest Tom Graham attempts to lay out how this gap might be bridged … nationalinterest.org/feature/endi...
So, as predicted, the global energy market is starting to bifurcate … www.reuters.com/business/ene...
How sanctions made a showpiece Chinese refinery's Western partners run for the exits
When Shandong Yulong Petrochemical opened its Singapore office a year ago, the company staged a lion dance to herald prosperity for the new $20 billion oil refiner at the centre of modernisation effor...
www.reuters.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:03 PM
So, as predicted, the global energy market is starting to bifurcate … www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Very interesting post from Tatiana Stanovaya addressing these very points … x.com/stanovaya/st...
November 26, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Very interesting post from Tatiana Stanovaya addressing these very points … x.com/stanovaya/st...
Very interesting to see the growth in this process--and how the U.S. seems to be moving towards a Japanese/German model of having the government and the private sector align their efforts ...
November 26, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Very interesting to see the growth in this process--and how the U.S. seems to be moving towards a Japanese/German model of having the government and the private sector align their efforts ...
Former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan has some interesting observations on what happened in Geneva ... www.linkedin.com/posts/djooma...
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan has some interesting observations on what happened in Geneva ... www.linkedin.com/posts/djooma...
We want a World War II ending (Ukrainian victory/Russian defeat) but continue to be unwilling to make the World War II level of commitment. A say/do gap that both dooms current diplomatic efforts but won't stop the bleeding. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
All of the punditry and commentary, as well as reactions from U.S. and European politicians, to the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, reveals a dangerous say-do gap--they want a World War II…...
All of the punditry and commentary, as well as reactions from U.S. and European politicians, to the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, reveals a dangerous say-do gap--they want a World War II ...
www.linkedin.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:04 PM
We want a World War II ending (Ukrainian victory/Russian defeat) but continue to be unwilling to make the World War II level of commitment. A say/do gap that both dooms current diplomatic efforts but won't stop the bleeding. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
New Christos Makridis article arguing geopolitics is no longer driven mainly by diplomacy or military power. It is now shaped by supply chains, technology chokepoints, tariffs, and control over critical inputs to modern production.
www.linkedin.com/posts/christ...
www.linkedin.com/posts/christ...
Makridis article on economics of geopolitics | Christos Makridis
Geopolitics is no longer driven mainly by diplomacy or military power. It is now shaped by supply chains, technology chokepoints, tariffs, and control over critical inputs to modern production.
In my...
www.linkedin.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:17 AM
New Christos Makridis article arguing geopolitics is no longer driven mainly by diplomacy or military power. It is now shaped by supply chains, technology chokepoints, tariffs, and control over critical inputs to modern production.
www.linkedin.com/posts/christ...
www.linkedin.com/posts/christ...
I think it is fair to ask current or former members of Congress whether they ever sponsored, co-sponsored or supported legislation that would have written the Budapest assurances for Ukraine into binding U.S. legislation ...
November 26, 2025 at 4:27 AM
I think it is fair to ask current or former members of Congress whether they ever sponsored, co-sponsored or supported legislation that would have written the Budapest assurances for Ukraine into binding U.S. legislation ...
And now, who speaks for whom? Who has authority to negotiate and to make commitments? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
November 26, 2025 at 4:25 AM
And now, who speaks for whom? Who has authority to negotiate and to make commitments? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Extremely interesting tick-tock account of the origins of the 28-point plan … the back channel meetings (again a Qatari role!), feigned public ignorance while private conversations are underway, and the importance of South Florida as a meeting ground … www.axios.com/2025/11/24/t...
How Trump's 28-point plan for Ukraine shocked the world
Zelensky listened on speaker phone as Witkoff and Kushner read, line by line, from a 28-point plan.
www.axios.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Extremely interesting tick-tock account of the origins of the 28-point plan … the back channel meetings (again a Qatari role!), feigned public ignorance while private conversations are underway, and the importance of South Florida as a meeting ground … www.axios.com/2025/11/24/t...
With news that Abu Dhabi Interational Holding looking at LUKoil assets, the Russians may see friendly, pragmatically inclined Gulf investors are safer pairs of hands for these assets, now that the Gunvor option is no longer feasible. @reziemba.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 7:28 PM
With news that Abu Dhabi Interational Holding looking at LUKoil assets, the Russians may see friendly, pragmatically inclined Gulf investors are safer pairs of hands for these assets, now that the Gunvor option is no longer feasible. @reziemba.bsky.social
Commentators, please don’t fall into the Naomi Wolfe “death recorded” error when seeing Russian bureaucratic documents and potentially drawing the wrong conclusion …
November 24, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Commentators, please don’t fall into the Naomi Wolfe “death recorded” error when seeing Russian bureaucratic documents and potentially drawing the wrong conclusion …
The emergence of a #polynodal world … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
How the World is Shifting: Bloomberg TV the Emerging Global Order | Nikolas Gvosdev
To the extent we are living through #fracturedglobalization we are going to see states and regions that embrace a #keystone strategy — this #polynodal dynamic Dr. Parag Khanna is discussing here.
www.linkedin.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The emergence of a #polynodal world … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
The emergence of a #polynodal world … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
How the World is Shifting: Bloomberg TV the Emerging Global Order | Nikolas Gvosdev
To the extent we are living through #fracturedglobalization we are going to see states and regions that embrace a #keystone strategy — this #polynodal dynamic Dr. Parag Khanna is discussing here.
www.linkedin.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The emergence of a #polynodal world … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Since this is coming up ... the Budapest Memo was never written into a treaty, enacted/affirmed by domestic legislation or even codified as an executive agreement. It was a “trust me” note from President Clinton. 2014 opinion said it may represent a moral obligation but is not legally binding.
November 24, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Since this is coming up ... the Budapest Memo was never written into a treaty, enacted/affirmed by domestic legislation or even codified as an executive agreement. It was a “trust me” note from President Clinton. 2014 opinion said it may represent a moral obligation but is not legally binding.
A reminder that polling that shows most Americans and even most Republicans support Ukraine/oppose #POTUS position doesn't translate into strong salient support to take action ... certainly not the type/level of support that moves policy changes.
November 24, 2025 at 3:02 AM
A reminder that polling that shows most Americans and even most Republicans support Ukraine/oppose #POTUS position doesn't translate into strong salient support to take action ... certainly not the type/level of support that moves policy changes.
Some of the unease with the 28-point plan comes from the recognition it is a throwback to earlier eras of power politics in Europe … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Some of the unease with the 28-point plan is in its very framing and ethos. Border shifts, limits on armed forces, enforced neutrality, etc. would all be terms very familiar to a Talleyrand or… | Niko...
Some of the unease with the 28-point plan is in its very framing and ethos. Border shifts, limits on armed forces, enforced neutrality, etc. would all be terms very familiar to a Talleyrand or Mettern...
www.linkedin.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Some of the unease with the 28-point plan comes from the recognition it is a throwback to earlier eras of power politics in Europe … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Some thoughts on Ukraine and security guarantees ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Struck by the fact that Saudi Arabia has now achieved major non-NATO ally status while Ukraine remains stuck in limbo of having its NATO application move forward only "when conditions allow and… ...
Struck by the fact that Saudi Arabia has now achieved major non-NATO ally status while Ukraine remains stuck in limbo of having its NATO application move forward only "when conditions allow and allies...
www.linkedin.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Some thoughts on Ukraine and security guarantees ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
This represents a setback for a Trump geo-economic approach that relies on the private sector to be able to generate capital more quickly than via government channels.
U.S. Banks Shelve $20 Billion Bailout Plan for Argentina
Exclusive | U.S. Banks Shelve $20 Billion Bailout Plan for Argentina
Bankers are instead discussing a smaller, short-term facility to help Argentina make a roughly $4 billion debt payment in January
www.wsj.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:50 PM
This represents a setback for a Trump geo-economic approach that relies on the private sector to be able to generate capital more quickly than via government channels.
Seems to be a response to expectations that Parag Khanna's "Barbarians at the Gates" scenario is the likely future as we move towards the mid-21st century. asiatimes.com/2025/11/how-...
How the rich world is fortifying itself against climate migration - Asia Times
The UK has announced much harsher rules for asylum seekers including the prospect of more deportations for those whose applications fail. The US is
asiatimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Seems to be a response to expectations that Parag Khanna's "Barbarians at the Gates" scenario is the likely future as we move towards the mid-21st century. asiatimes.com/2025/11/how-...
A shift once again in attitude in the White House? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
James Davis, writing in Asia Times, indicating that the mood inside the White House has shifted once again ... the expectation that unless Ukraine accepts the Trump 28-point plan as a basis for… | Sou...
James Davis, writing in Asia Times, indicating that the mood inside the White House has shifted once again ... the expectation that unless Ukraine accepts the Trump 28-point plan as a basis for negoti...
www.linkedin.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:07 PM
A shift once again in attitude in the White House? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
What I find fascinating about the 28-point plan (assuming the version I saw is accurate) is the set of "deals": Ukraine in the EU, but not in NATO; European air defense umbrella based in Poland to protect Ukraine, but not able to strike Russian territory; 1/
November 21, 2025 at 3:02 PM
What I find fascinating about the 28-point plan (assuming the version I saw is accurate) is the set of "deals": Ukraine in the EU, but not in NATO; European air defense umbrella based in Poland to protect Ukraine, but not able to strike Russian territory; 1/
Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
I want to very gently say something, and I hope nobody will be mad: If somebody on the internet says something that is NOT about politics and NOT about how terrible everything is, it’s a kindness not to reflexively make a comment (in jest or not) that brings it back to those things.
November 13, 2025 at 2:10 AM
I want to very gently say something, and I hope nobody will be mad: If somebody on the internet says something that is NOT about politics and NOT about how terrible everything is, it’s a kindness not to reflexively make a comment (in jest or not) that brings it back to those things.
The speed of the dismantling: in March '33 German voters had a secret ballot and still had 20 parties/coalitions on the Reichstag ballot--including the Communists, despite intense Nazi pressure. By November the next Reichstag election was a non-secret ballot with uncontested Nazi candidates. 1/
Pretty sure I'd have noticed it between January and March 1933
I am largely on your side, but I think I have a pertinent question. If you were a German citizen in the 30s, when would you have spotted the change? would you have started using the word fascism to describe what's going on before you would have been thrown in a concentration camp for doing so?
November 20, 2025 at 4:35 AM
The speed of the dismantling: in March '33 German voters had a secret ballot and still had 20 parties/coalitions on the Reichstag ballot--including the Communists, despite intense Nazi pressure. By November the next Reichstag election was a non-secret ballot with uncontested Nazi candidates. 1/
Reposted by Nikolas Gvosdev
For anyone keeping score at home, this is the now the EU backing down to China on a high-stakes tech standoff, just weeks after the US did the same.
Like Bidenism before it, Trumpism and its European corollaries are more the last gasp of a dying global order than a viable path forward.
Like Bidenism before it, Trumpism and its European corollaries are more the last gasp of a dying global order than a viable path forward.
Netherlands Hands Back Control of Chinese-Owned Chipmaker Nexperia
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 1:35 PM
For anyone keeping score at home, this is the now the EU backing down to China on a high-stakes tech standoff, just weeks after the US did the same.
Like Bidenism before it, Trumpism and its European corollaries are more the last gasp of a dying global order than a viable path forward.
Like Bidenism before it, Trumpism and its European corollaries are more the last gasp of a dying global order than a viable path forward.