Great piece on the last developments in #Philippines foreign policy and #minilateralism

While I agree that #ASEAN partners do still play a prominent role, this may rapidly change if what agreeed upon in minilaterals like #JAPHUS delivers results.

www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

#Japan #Philippines #US (#JAPHUS) trilateral is CLEARLY a success for the Philippines.

- It locks in US and Japan in providing deterrence.

- Unexpectedly, it made the US pledge unprecedented economic support by promoting an economic corridor.

apnews.com/article/japa...

#Philippines - #Japan RAA to be signed today.

Upon the completion of the ratification process, it is worth noting that in a bit more than one year, Manila and Tokyo’ security partnership lays on three new pillars:

- The RAA

- Japan’s OSA for provision of equipment

- JAPHUS

What role can a state like the Philippines play in minilaterals like JAPHUS?

My first peer-reviewed article co-authored with Dr. Alice Dell’Era on the topic is finally out for @AustJIA!

Article available at the link below👇
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

The next #US Secretary of State may double down on what agreed in the #JAPHUS statement, on the necessity of strengthening #Philippines’ economic resilience. He already initiated a bill on the matter.

www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/t...

You don’t need a trilateral pact to organize patrols.

So why does the #Philippines need #JAPHUS? Simple.

Real negotiations with #China (and not past masquerades) aren’t possible without increased capabilities.

Bringing #Japan in does exactly that.

www.politico.com/news/2024/03...

#JAPHUS is a minilateral born with defense in mind.

#Philippines is in great shape to benefit from it as offsets some costs over its alliance with #US to #Japan, and increases deterrence capabilities in return.

www.politico.com/news/2024/03...

During a visit to Vietnam, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu warns of the spread of “NATO embryos” in the Asia Pacific. He appears to have in mind AUKUS, the Quad, and JAPHUS. www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/...

NOTE: Sewer Dwarves were just dwarves that had immigrated to the big city, joined the Public Works Department of Goldenfork, joined the Cult of Japhus the Crying God (all about clean water), become more disease resistant with ZERO sense of smell.

A #US - #Philippine - #Japan trilateral grouping is already a reality in the #Indopacifc.
#JAPHUS is already an informal #minilateral grouping operating at several government levels.

Geopolitics Polisky

I agree with this excellent commentary on the fact that #JAPHUS’ future is tied to PH domestic dynamics. Indeed, the Joint Statement is all about #Philippines’ economic resilience: Marcos Jr needs to deliver something more to his audience. 1/2

www.factsasia.org/blog/minilat...

Will #JAPHUS survive Trump 2.0? Probably yes, but the goals and priorities of the grouping may shift radically based on the clear agenda-setting power that the major partner has.

www-bworldonline-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bwor...

Infrastructure development may be the currency for alignment choices in SEAsia. It is an avenue to substantiate #QUAD ambitions.

The challenge is to convince the #US to play the infrastructure game, something that has been somewhat achieved with #JAPHUS.

www.factsasia.org/blog/a-case-...

Great read on #Indopacific #minilateralism.
I agree that #China is currently doing a better work in economic diplomacy, and that #Japan and #Australia approach remains focused on security, recent #JAPHUS grouping shows that economic security is gaining traction also in non-Chinese led minilaterals.

#US is lagging behind in terms of economic engagement in Southeast Asia.

But thinking it in perspective, the tone of #JAPHUS summit in April was precisely on economics. They even pledged the opening of “Luzon Economic Corridor”.

Maybe “like mindedness” is the currency of new devt. policies?

Remember the #QUAD? Well, new #indopacific minilaterals like #JAPHUS are explicitly defensive in nature.
The common interest? Keeping the balance of power in their favor of course.
The #Philippines interest? Offsetting some costs of their alliance with the #US.

Geopolitics Polisky