Zak Yudhishthu
@zyudhishthu.bsky.social
Sidewalk enthusiast and former St. Paulite. I like to write about housing policy, especially in the Twin Cities. Nowadays I’m an economics research assistant in Chicago
https://pencillingout.substack.com/
https://pencillingout.substack.com/
Went to Boston. Saw the building
November 24, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Went to Boston. Saw the building
More interesting stuff from @tonydamiano.bsky.social (ACS data I think? I feel like I've seen similar graphs of his using CoStar too), but again it would be valuable to pull these different sources together to clarify the convo
November 21, 2025 at 6:39 PM
More interesting stuff from @tonydamiano.bsky.social (ACS data I think? I feel like I've seen similar graphs of his using CoStar too), but again it would be valuable to pull these different sources together to clarify the convo
Here's the key thing: even if a small share of housing (both previously existing and new-built) is 2, 3, or more bedrooms, being a small portion of a large increase still means significant growth!
A rising tide to lift all boats, regardless of family status
A rising tide to lift all boats, regardless of family status
November 11, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Here's the key thing: even if a small share of housing (both previously existing and new-built) is 2, 3, or more bedrooms, being a small portion of a large increase still means significant growth!
A rising tide to lift all boats, regardless of family status
A rising tide to lift all boats, regardless of family status
Most of this new housing has been in huge buildings with studios and 1 beds. In other words, the housing booms of the Loop, River North, and South and West Loop haven't been particularly family friendly.
But it's still supported major first-order growth in the # of families!
But it's still supported major first-order growth in the # of families!
November 11, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Most of this new housing has been in huge buildings with studios and 1 beds. In other words, the housing booms of the Loop, River North, and South and West Loop haven't been particularly family friendly.
But it's still supported major first-order growth in the # of families!
But it's still supported major first-order growth in the # of families!
Look at the incredible number of housing permits in Chicago's 4 core community areas, while most neighborhoods stagnated.
The population in these areas has grown commensurately, but it's not just childless yuppies — in 2020, they had thousands more children than in 2010.
The population in these areas has grown commensurately, but it's not just childless yuppies — in 2020, they had thousands more children than in 2010.
November 11, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Look at the incredible number of housing permits in Chicago's 4 core community areas, while most neighborhoods stagnated.
The population in these areas has grown commensurately, but it's not just childless yuppies — in 2020, they had thousands more children than in 2010.
The population in these areas has grown commensurately, but it's not just childless yuppies — in 2020, they had thousands more children than in 2010.
Shoutout this incredibly photogenic cement truck that’s been all around Logan Square lately
November 11, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Shoutout this incredibly photogenic cement truck that’s been all around Logan Square lately
Some snapshots of today’s snow day from the office
November 11, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Some snapshots of today’s snow day from the office
The median cost of these discretionary review delays is $14,000 but potentially far more (so commonly high enough that developers just don't bother to develop if they will trigger the review)
danny-gold.com/jmp
danny-gold.com/jmp
November 6, 2025 at 2:56 AM
The median cost of these discretionary review delays is $14,000 but potentially far more (so commonly high enough that developers just don't bother to develop if they will trigger the review)
danny-gold.com/jmp
danny-gold.com/jmp
Look at the impacts of Seattle's previous discretionary review requirements, which only kicked in at 8+ units: much less development above that size.
At the same time, developers adjust below 8 units by building more sq ft/unit to adjust (meaning less lower-cost housing supply)
At the same time, developers adjust below 8 units by building more sq ft/unit to adjust (meaning less lower-cost housing supply)
November 6, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Look at the impacts of Seattle's previous discretionary review requirements, which only kicked in at 8+ units: much less development above that size.
At the same time, developers adjust below 8 units by building more sq ft/unit to adjust (meaning less lower-cost housing supply)
At the same time, developers adjust below 8 units by building more sq ft/unit to adjust (meaning less lower-cost housing supply)
Make what you will of prediction markets, but in the past 24 hours they have hardly wavered at all in predicting Frey to be a strong favorite. Now, at 94% they are at their highest certainty yet in favor of Frey
November 5, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Make what you will of prediction markets, but in the past 24 hours they have hardly wavered at all in predicting Frey to be a strong favorite. Now, at 94% they are at their highest certainty yet in favor of Frey
Reading this on my delayed train ride to work where nobody takes off their backpacks or fills into the ends of the train, so people can’t board the train
November 4, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reading this on my delayed train ride to work where nobody takes off their backpacks or fills into the ends of the train, so people can’t board the train
While I'm at it (shoutout to the author for posting the pdf on his site), let me just say that this one looks like a banger
November 4, 2025 at 2:17 AM
While I'm at it (shoutout to the author for posting the pdf on his site), let me just say that this one looks like a banger
I wonder if anyone ever actually paid 5 bucks for an NBER working paper...
November 4, 2025 at 2:13 AM
I wonder if anyone ever actually paid 5 bucks for an NBER working paper...
Observations from @salimfurth.bsky.social: "YIMBYs need solid research results. And economists need reality checks from people who know policy better than they do."
marketurbanism.com/2025/11/03/h...
marketurbanism.com/2025/11/03/h...
November 4, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Observations from @salimfurth.bsky.social: "YIMBYs need solid research results. And economists need reality checks from people who know policy better than they do."
marketurbanism.com/2025/11/03/h...
marketurbanism.com/2025/11/03/h...
I didn't realize there was a prediction market for Minneapolis's mayoral election. I'm surprised to see that Frey is nearly as much of a favorite as Mamdani (who is at 90%) !!
Meanwhile Davis and Hampton have been completely counted out
Meanwhile Davis and Hampton have been completely counted out
November 4, 2025 at 12:35 AM
I didn't realize there was a prediction market for Minneapolis's mayoral election. I'm surprised to see that Frey is nearly as much of a favorite as Mamdani (who is at 90%) !!
Meanwhile Davis and Hampton have been completely counted out
Meanwhile Davis and Hampton have been completely counted out
This weekend we were the Chicago Board of Trade and Ceres
November 3, 2025 at 11:54 PM
This weekend we were the Chicago Board of Trade and Ceres
Who recognizes this Beef?
November 2, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Who recognizes this Beef?
To be fair, this could be entirely consistent with a shortfall of more family-friendly housing specifically in urban areas, since multi-bedroom apartments are more rare in new apartments. ifstudies.org/report-brief...
November 2, 2025 at 5:22 PM
To be fair, this could be entirely consistent with a shortfall of more family-friendly housing specifically in urban areas, since multi-bedroom apartments are more rare in new apartments. ifstudies.org/report-brief...
Kind of unexpected chart from @ebwhamilton.bsky.social: In the US, the ratio of 3 and 4-bedroom housing units to households has actually grown quite a bit in the fast few decades! You hear a lot about a shortage of family housing, but this suggests the opposite?
www.governing.com/urban/to-sup...
www.governing.com/urban/to-sup...
November 2, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Kind of unexpected chart from @ebwhamilton.bsky.social: In the US, the ratio of 3 and 4-bedroom housing units to households has actually grown quite a bit in the fast few decades! You hear a lot about a shortage of family housing, but this suggests the opposite?
www.governing.com/urban/to-sup...
www.governing.com/urban/to-sup...
The reason I like Salim's article, though, is that neither moving chains nor supply->rents->homelessness arguments can address this question: how does this help the many people who have extremely little or no income?
So the extra bedrooms story seems pretty important.
So the extra bedrooms story seems pretty important.
November 2, 2025 at 5:08 PM
The reason I like Salim's article, though, is that neither moving chains nor supply->rents->homelessness arguments can address this question: how does this help the many people who have extremely little or no income?
So the extra bedrooms story seems pretty important.
So the extra bedrooms story seems pretty important.
IMO the really important economic dynamic is re-urbanization of young (largely white) professionals. In the last couple decades this group really started to reverse their previous trend of suburbanization. That means urban household growth coming from small households.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
November 2, 2025 at 5:02 PM
IMO the really important economic dynamic is re-urbanization of young (largely white) professionals. In the last couple decades this group really started to reverse their previous trend of suburbanization. That means urban household growth coming from small households.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Why is this happening? When I wrote about Minneapolis, which also has more households than ever before, I highlighted that there were many more child-less households, meaning you can get household growth without a ton of population growth.
streets.mn/2025/05/19/m...
streets.mn/2025/05/19/m...
November 2, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Why is this happening? When I wrote about Minneapolis, which also has more households than ever before, I highlighted that there were many more child-less households, meaning you can get household growth without a ton of population growth.
streets.mn/2025/05/19/m...
streets.mn/2025/05/19/m...
Chicago has had huge growth in the # households since 2010, meaning more demand for housing.
As I blogged about a few months ago, it's not alone — in 2020 many cities reached all-time highs in the # of households, even after past population loss.
pencillingout.substack.com/p/some-citie...
As I blogged about a few months ago, it's not alone — in 2020 many cities reached all-time highs in the # of households, even after past population loss.
pencillingout.substack.com/p/some-citie...
November 2, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Chicago has had huge growth in the # households since 2010, meaning more demand for housing.
As I blogged about a few months ago, it's not alone — in 2020 many cities reached all-time highs in the # of households, even after past population loss.
pencillingout.substack.com/p/some-citie...
As I blogged about a few months ago, it's not alone — in 2020 many cities reached all-time highs in the # of households, even after past population loss.
pencillingout.substack.com/p/some-citie...
I agree that this is a useful way to think ab it, and the Mast paper is most relevant here .
Specifically: 1 new market-rate units leads to 0.2 - 0.3 new units opening up in the very poorest neighborhoods
Specifically: 1 new market-rate units leads to 0.2 - 0.3 new units opening up in the very poorest neighborhoods
November 2, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I agree that this is a useful way to think ab it, and the Mast paper is most relevant here .
Specifically: 1 new market-rate units leads to 0.2 - 0.3 new units opening up in the very poorest neighborhoods
Specifically: 1 new market-rate units leads to 0.2 - 0.3 new units opening up in the very poorest neighborhoods
The newly pedestrianized strip of Milwaukee Avenue in Logan Square was lovely today, with a big Day of the Dead market.
Just a year ago, it was a loud and chaotic through street. Things changing for the better!
Just a year ago, it was a loud and chaotic through street. Things changing for the better!
October 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
The newly pedestrianized strip of Milwaukee Avenue in Logan Square was lovely today, with a big Day of the Dead market.
Just a year ago, it was a loud and chaotic through street. Things changing for the better!
Just a year ago, it was a loud and chaotic through street. Things changing for the better!