yieldcurve.pro
@yieldcurve.pro
Sharing thoughts on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income, government backed securities, quantitative portfolio management, and (of course) the yield curve.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -21 bps and +43 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -21 bps and +43 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
February 10, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -21 bps and +43 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -21 bps and +43 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Weekly Yield Curve Recap
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 9, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Weekly Yield Curve Recap
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
February 9, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
Yield Curve Butterfly: 2s/10s/30s
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Yield Curve Butterfly: 2s/10s/30s
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM
The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
February 7, 2026 at 10:00 AM
The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
Current yield curve regime is Bull Steep.
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
February 7, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Current yield curve regime is Bull Steep.
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
Inflation will need to remain reliably below 3-4% for traditional 60-40 funds to make any sense.
February 6, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Inflation will need to remain reliably below 3-4% for traditional 60-40 funds to make any sense.
The Morning Dashboard provides users with a daily market snapshot, consolidating key yield curve metrics into a single view.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
February 6, 2026 at 5:28 PM
The Morning Dashboard provides users with a daily market snapshot, consolidating key yield curve metrics into a single view.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
February 6, 2026 at 4:18 AM
Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Bond and 3 Mo Bill.
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 6, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Bond and 3 Mo Bill.
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Does gold add diversification to your typical stock-bond portfolio?
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
February 4, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Does gold add diversification to your typical stock-bond portfolio?
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Bond.
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Bond.
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Essays On Trading Strategy by Graham L. Giller
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
February 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Essays On Trading Strategy by Graham L. Giller
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
Duration Extension: Worth It?
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Duration Extension: Worth It?
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
February 3, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Is the Long End Inverted?
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 2, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Is the Long End Inverted?
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Advanced Portfolio Management by Giuseppe A. Paleologo
As a quant have you ever done your...
https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Portfolio-Management-Fundamental-Investors/dp/1119789796?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=0115f8ad52d5d8409b8a7dc4b1da33e1&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
As a quant have you ever done your...
https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Portfolio-Management-Fundamental-Investors/dp/1119789796?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=0115f8ad52d5d8409b8a7dc4b1da33e1&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
February 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Advanced Portfolio Management by Giuseppe A. Paleologo
As a quant have you ever done your...
https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Portfolio-Management-Fundamental-Investors/dp/1119789796?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=0115f8ad52d5d8409b8a7dc4b1da33e1&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
As a quant have you ever done your...
https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Portfolio-Management-Fundamental-Investors/dp/1119789796?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=0115f8ad52d5d8409b8a7dc4b1da33e1&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.52%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.52%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
February 2, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.52%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.52%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
Over the last ~25 years this is the most inverted curve we have seen.
What a difference a bit over 2 years can make.
What a difference a bit over 2 years can make.
February 2, 2026 at 1:17 AM
Over the last ~25 years this is the most inverted curve we have seen.
What a difference a bit over 2 years can make.
What a difference a bit over 2 years can make.
Where's the Best Rolldown?
Rolldown = slope per year of maturity
(more bps/yr = better rolldown potential)
2Y-5Y: +27 bps (+9.0/yr)
5Y-10Y: +47 bps (+9.4/yr) ← best
10Y-30Y: +61 bps (+3.1/yr)
Best rolldown: 5Y-10Y
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Rolldown = slope per year of maturity
(more bps/yr = better rolldown potential)
2Y-5Y: +27 bps (+9.0/yr)
5Y-10Y: +47 bps (+9.4/yr) ← best
10Y-30Y: +61 bps (+3.1/yr)
Best rolldown: 5Y-10Y
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 1, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Where's the Best Rolldown?
Rolldown = slope per year of maturity
(more bps/yr = better rolldown potential)
2Y-5Y: +27 bps (+9.0/yr)
5Y-10Y: +47 bps (+9.4/yr) ← best
10Y-30Y: +61 bps (+3.1/yr)
Best rolldown: 5Y-10Y
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Rolldown = slope per year of maturity
(more bps/yr = better rolldown potential)
2Y-5Y: +27 bps (+9.0/yr)
5Y-10Y: +47 bps (+9.4/yr) ← best
10Y-30Y: +61 bps (+3.1/yr)
Best rolldown: 5Y-10Y
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
What Moved the Curve This Week?
3 commonly used proxies for curve moves:
• Level (parallel shift): +2 bps
• Slope (steepening): +10 bps
• Curvature (butterfly): -4 bps
Biggest mover: Slope
Current: 10 Yr 4.26% | 2s10s +74 bps
✨
3 commonly used proxies for curve moves:
• Level (parallel shift): +2 bps
• Slope (steepening): +10 bps
• Curvature (butterfly): -4 bps
Biggest mover: Slope
Current: 10 Yr 4.26% | 2s10s +74 bps
✨
February 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM
What Moved the Curve This Week?
3 commonly used proxies for curve moves:
• Level (parallel shift): +2 bps
• Slope (steepening): +10 bps
• Curvature (butterfly): -4 bps
Biggest mover: Slope
Current: 10 Yr 4.26% | 2s10s +74 bps
✨
3 commonly used proxies for curve moves:
• Level (parallel shift): +2 bps
• Slope (steepening): +10 bps
• Curvature (butterfly): -4 bps
Biggest mover: Slope
Current: 10 Yr 4.26% | 2s10s +74 bps
✨
Little Book That Beats The Market by Joel Greenblatt
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Still-Beats-Market/dp/0470624159/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1700451859&sr=1-1&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=e2a0638f9ec7a2c640111a5b0cd90f9d&camp=1789&creative...
https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Still-Beats-Market/dp/0470624159/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1700451859&sr=1-1&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=e2a0638f9ec7a2c640111a5b0cd90f9d&camp=1789&creative...
February 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM
February 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Front End Monitor
Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.72% (-6)
3 Mo: 3.67% (-3)
6 Mo: 3.61% (+0)
1 Yr: 3.48% (-5)
Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-8 bps)
Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -24 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.72% (-6)
3 Mo: 3.67% (-3)
6 Mo: 3.61% (+0)
1 Yr: 3.48% (-5)
Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-8 bps)
Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -24 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
January 31, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Front End Monitor
Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.72% (-6)
3 Mo: 3.67% (-3)
6 Mo: 3.61% (+0)
1 Yr: 3.48% (-5)
Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-8 bps)
Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -24 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.72% (-6)
3 Mo: 3.67% (-3)
6 Mo: 3.61% (+0)
1 Yr: 3.48% (-5)
Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-8 bps)
Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -24 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨