yieldcurve.pro
@yieldcurve.pro
Sharing thoughts on capital markets, interest rates, fixed-income, government backed securities, quantitative portfolio management, and (of course) the yield curve.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/
Top Stories
1. US Bond Term Premia
2. Revaluation Alpha: Why Past Factor Returns May...
3. Qualcomm's Memory Warning Sounds Scary, But...
4. ETF of the Week: Vanguard Emerging Markets...
5. Wall Street Wants Predictors
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news
✨
1. US Bond Term Premia
2. Revaluation Alpha: Why Past Factor Returns May...
3. Qualcomm's Memory Warning Sounds Scary, But...
4. ETF of the Week: Vanguard Emerging Markets...
5. Wall Street Wants Predictors
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news
✨
February 10, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Top Stories
1. US Bond Term Premia
2. Revaluation Alpha: Why Past Factor Returns May...
3. Qualcomm's Memory Warning Sounds Scary, But...
4. ETF of the Week: Vanguard Emerging Markets...
5. Wall Street Wants Predictors
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news
✨
1. US Bond Term Premia
2. Revaluation Alpha: Why Past Factor Returns May...
3. Qualcomm's Memory Warning Sounds Scary, But...
4. ETF of the Week: Vanguard Emerging Markets...
5. Wall Street Wants Predictors
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/news
✨
Weekly Yield Curve Recap
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 9, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Weekly Yield Curve Recap
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.50% (-2)
5 Yr: 3.76% (-3)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-4)
30 Yr: 4.85% (-2)
Biggest mover: 10 Yr (-4 bps)
2s10s little changed (-2 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Examining Yield Curve Similarity (Part 1)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/examining-yield-curve-similarity-part-1
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/examining-yield-curve-similarity-part-1
✨
Examining Yield Curve Similarity (Part 1)
How to discover similar interest rate environments?
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Examining Yield Curve Similarity (Part 1)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/examining-yield-curve-similarity-part-1
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/examining-yield-curve-similarity-part-1
✨
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
February 9, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Federal Reserve rate update.
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.50%.
Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed
✨
Yield Curve Butterfly: 2s/10s/30s
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Yield Curve Butterfly: 2s/10s/30s
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Current: -4 bps
1Y change: -1 bps
Body: 10 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 30 Yr
+ = cupped (body rich)
- = humped (body cheap)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Give this classic paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_04.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_04.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
Salomon Brothers Series: Understanding the Yield Curve - Part 4
The Salomon Brothers' "Understanding the Yield Curve" series (1995) remains influential in fixed-income markets for introducing sophisticated yield curve analysis concepts to practitioners. The ser...
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Give this classic paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_04.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_04.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
February 8, 2026 at 4:00 AM
The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
February 7, 2026 at 10:00 AM
The Laws of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone by Agustin Lebron
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
https://www.amazon.com/Laws-Trading-Traders-Decision-Making-Everyone/dp/1119574218/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1RZFGBUHGC4N&keywords=laws+of+trading&qid=1700449206&sprefix=laws+of+trading%252Caps%252...
Current yield curve regime is Bull Steep.
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
February 7, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Current yield curve regime is Bull Steep.
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
🐂📈
Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 3 Mo tenors with a 251 day lookback.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
The Morning Dashboard provides users with a daily market snapshot, consolidating key yield curve metrics into a single view.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
February 6, 2026 at 5:28 PM
The Morning Dashboard provides users with a daily market snapshot, consolidating key yield curve metrics into a single view.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
Access the dashboard via the Dashboard link in the upper right-hand corner.
Accounts are free...of course.
Yield Curve History: February 06
Today's 2s10s spread: +74 bps
Same date in past years:
2008 (steep): +165 bps
2019 (flat): +18 bps
2020 (flat): +21 bps
2022 (normal): +62 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Today's 2s10s spread: +74 bps
Same date in past years:
2008 (steep): +165 bps
2019 (flat): +18 bps
2020 (flat): +21 bps
2022 (normal): +62 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
yieldcurve.pro
Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Yield Curve History: February 06
Today's 2s10s spread: +74 bps
Same date in past years:
2008 (steep): +165 bps
2019 (flat): +18 bps
2020 (flat): +21 bps
2022 (normal): +62 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Today's 2s10s spread: +74 bps
Same date in past years:
2008 (steep): +165 bps
2019 (flat): +18 bps
2020 (flat): +21 bps
2022 (normal): +62 bps
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Diversifying Return Stacked Allocations (Part 2)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/diversifying-return-stacked-allocations-002
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/diversifying-return-stacked-allocations-002
✨
Diversifying Return Stacked Allocations (Part 2)
So You Have Chosen Your Return Stacked Asset Classes. Now What?
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 6, 2026 at 10:01 AM
Diversifying Return Stacked Allocations (Part 2)
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/diversifying-return-stacked-allocations-002
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/diversifying-return-stacked-allocations-002
✨
February 6, 2026 at 4:18 AM
Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Bond and 3 Mo Bill.
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 6, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Bond and 3 Mo Bill.
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Fixed Income by Maturity (1D)
SHV (0-1 Year Treasu): +0.00%
SHY (1-3 Year Treasu): +0.05% ← best
IEI (3-7 Year Treasu): +0.00%
IEF (7-10 Year Treas): -0.02%
TLH (10-20 Year Trea): -0.14%
TLT (20+ Year Treasu): -0.25% ← worst
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
SHV (0-1 Year Treasu): +0.00%
SHY (1-3 Year Treasu): +0.05% ← best
IEI (3-7 Year Treasu): +0.00%
IEF (7-10 Year Treas): -0.02%
TLH (10-20 Year Trea): -0.14%
TLT (20+ Year Treasu): -0.25% ← worst
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
yieldcurve.pro
Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Fixed Income by Maturity (1D)
SHV (0-1 Year Treasu): +0.00%
SHY (1-3 Year Treasu): +0.05% ← best
IEI (3-7 Year Treasu): +0.00%
IEF (7-10 Year Treas): -0.02%
TLH (10-20 Year Trea): -0.14%
TLT (20+ Year Treasu): -0.25% ← worst
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
SHV (0-1 Year Treasu): +0.00%
SHY (1-3 Year Treasu): +0.05% ← best
IEI (3-7 Year Treasu): +0.00%
IEF (7-10 Year Treas): -0.02%
TLH (10-20 Year Trea): -0.14%
TLT (20+ Year Treasu): -0.25% ← worst
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Does gold add diversification to your typical stock-bond portfolio?
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
February 4, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Does gold add diversification to your typical stock-bond portfolio?
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Yes. Yes it does.
www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/is-gold...
Regime: Bull Steep
(53 months of data)
Best avg monthly return:
commodities: +2.06%
stocks: +0.98%
credit: +0.53%
Worst avg monthly return:
credit: +0.53%
reits: +0.26%
rates: +0.14%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
(53 months of data)
Best avg monthly return:
commodities: +2.06%
stocks: +0.98%
credit: +0.53%
Worst avg monthly return:
credit: +0.53%
reits: +0.26%
rates: +0.14%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
yieldcurve.pro
Interactive yield curve charts, Treasury auction analysis, FOMC rate decisions, and interest rate regime detection.
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Regime: Bull Steep
(53 months of data)
Best avg monthly return:
commodities: +2.06%
stocks: +0.98%
credit: +0.53%
Worst avg monthly return:
credit: +0.53%
reits: +0.26%
rates: +0.14%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
(53 months of data)
Best avg monthly return:
commodities: +2.06%
stocks: +0.98%
credit: +0.53%
Worst avg monthly return:
credit: +0.53%
reits: +0.26%
rates: +0.14%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes
✨
Give this classic paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_03.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_03.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
Salomon Brothers Series: Understanding the Yield Curve - Part 3
The Salomon Brothers' "Understanding the Yield Curve" series (1995) remains influential in fixed-income markets for introducing sophisticated yield curve analysis concepts to practitioners. The ser...
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 4, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Give this classic paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_03.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_03.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Bond.
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
February 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Bond.
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.69% and 4.28%, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels
✨
Essays On Trading Strategy by Graham L. Giller
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
February 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Essays On Trading Strategy by Graham L. Giller
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
This book focuses on practical trading strategies...
https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325
✨
Duration Extension: Worth It?
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Duration Extension: Worth It?
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
2Y → 10Y trade-off:
• Extra yield: +72 bps
• Break-even: ~11 bps rate rise
If rates rise <11 bps this year, extension wins.
If rates rise more, price loss wipes out pickup.
2Y: 3.57% | 10Y: 4.29%
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
Asset Returns During Various Yield Curve Regimes
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/asset-returns-during-various-yield-curve-regimes
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/asset-returns-during-various-yield-curve-regimes
✨
Asset Returns During Various Yield Curve Regimes
Which Asset Classes Perform Well in the Months Following a Bear Steepener?
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Asset Returns During Various Yield Curve Regimes
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/asset-returns-during-various-yield-curve-regimes
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/asset-returns-during-various-yield-curve-regimes
✨
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
February 3, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Today's yield curve vs last year's.
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -26 bps and +36 bps, respectively.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves
✨
Give this historical paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_02.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_02.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
Salomon Brothers Series: Understanding the Yield Curve - Part 2
The Salomon Brothers' "Understanding the Yield Curve" series (1995) remains influential in fixed-income markets for introducing sophisticated yield curve analysis concepts to practitioners. The ser...
www.yieldcurve.pro
February 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Give this historical paper a read
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_02.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/static/papers/salomon_yield_curve_02.pdf
This and other classic sources hosted for free at yieldcurve.pro
✨
Is the Long End Inverted?
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
February 2, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Is the Long End Inverted?
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨
30Y-20Y spread: +5 bps
1W: +1 bps | 1Y: +11 bps
Normal - 30Y yielding more than 20Y
Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes
✨